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Old 10-16-2012, 01:12 PM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
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Default Some Thoughts Through Week 6

Is Geno Atkins the best DT from the 2011 draft class?

The popular opinion is Suh is the best DT from this class. And McCoy has potential of becoming #2 on the list. But as much love as Geno gets, is he getting enough love? The guy is as dominant a DT as you can ask for. He's a great run defender, and at this point in all their careers, the best pass rusher hands down of the bunch.

If you want a 4-3 UT, I don't see how we should pick anyone other than Geno Atkins. I love Suh, and I think he gets a little too much **** these days, but his flaws are noticeable. He washes himself out of too many plays and is way too undisciplined. Too often falls in love with his bullrush. I understand the wide 9 they play in Detroit is a big reason for that, as they're not taught to care about gap discipline, but you still expect more from Suh.

And you can make an argument that Geno would be better than Suh in that kind of scheme anyway because of his quickness.

Every bad quarterback has the same excuses

We hear it all the time. Whenever a qb is playing like crap, we hear the same excuses every single time: It's the OC's fault, the OL isn't blocking, he has no weapons.

Every. Single. Time. It's some kind of combination of those excuses. Look at every single bad qb in this league. Every time, they have a combination of those excuses. And what we fail to realize is this:

If he's a franchise qb worth keeping to begin with, he will elevate the play of the players around him, so none of these excuses should matter. Think about it, if your qb needs everyone around him to be great, then guess what? He's not a great qb and not worth building around. That's the whole point of drafting a qb, so he can elevate the rest of the team. If he can't be that guy, then he's not a qb you should build your team around.

In the salary cap era, you need a quarterback who elevates the players around him. You can't afford to constantly build a perfect team around a qb bc the salary cap just won't allow for it. Once guys start coming off their rookie deals, you're gonna lose some of them and you're gonna need your qb to pick up the slack.

So the lack of talent around him shouldn't matter. A good qb overcomes that. Look at Tannehill. Not much difference btw the talent around him and the talent around Sanchez. But it's clear as day who the better qb is, it's clear as day who makes the players around him better. Quarterbacks are expensive. If you're gonna commit to a qb and pay him a bunch of money, he better be a guy who can elevate those around him. If he's not, then you're wasting time and money by keeping him around.

Matt Stafford is regressing

Matt is regressing. He's just staring down Megatron all the time. And his play is dropping off a lot because of it. Against the Eagles, he looked absolutely awful the entire game, the only reason why his play elevated in the 4th was because Calvin was getting open in the 4th. He's not making his progressions.

I've watched 3 Lions games this year: Vs St. Louis, Vs the Eagles, and Vs the 49ers.

In all of those games, he left a TON of plays on the field bc he's just not making his progressions. Many times, he had guys open underneath, or even down field but he just locked in on Calvin and tried forcing it to them. He has to take what the defense gives him, and make his reads.

Read the defense, hit the guy they're giving you. He's not doing that this year, instead he's stubbornly thinking he can always just fit it into Calvin, and his play is suffering because of it.

The blueprint is out. Everyone is giving him the same coverage shells. Theyre basically completely blanketing Calvin and daring Stafford to go to someone else. And so far it's working. He's not making his reads.

John Abraham: An interesting player to evaluate for this generation's HOF credentials

John Abraham has 115 qb sacks. In the past, that might have been enough to warrant HOF consideration. I think its safe to say however, that Abraham isn't a HOF caliber player. That makes us reevaluate the baseline for DEs and sack totals to become a HOF caliber player.

In today's game, its just easier to get sack totals. Teams throw more than ever, your opportunities for sacks are just greater. Look at how sack totals are skyrocketing around the league, its only a matter of time before the single season sack record gets broken. We have guys with 9 sacks through 6 games. Multiple guys in that ball park. And last year we had 3 guys who had a legitimate shot at breaking the record.

With sack totals increasing, I think we need to set a higher barometer for pass rushers and their sack totals. In the past, 150 sacks basically made you a lock for the HOF (unless you're Kevin Greene). Heck, a lot of guys who have 130 sacks are in the Hall.

But players from this era, I think you need a minimum 150 sacks to be considered, arguably more.

DeMarcus Ware could potentially break the sack record with over 200 sacks by the end of his career, but I don't think any of us will give it the same weight as Reggie, LT, or Deacon's sack totals bc the eras are just different. Not to take anything away from the guy, I think he'll wind up being a top 5 pass rusher of all time by the end of his career, but it's just a different era and should be treated as such.

QB Friendly League?

Is it really a quarterback friendly league? We make this assumption because more rookie qbs start than ever before. But is this really true? The amount of busts from the qb position are relatively the same as back then. The only difference is teams are finding out sooner instead of later.

And this is maybe homerish of me, but I need to get this off my chest. I'm tired of every ****** quarterback and their fans saying "Well Eli sucked his first 4 years so maybe he can turn it around too"

That's such a blatant misconception its not even funny. Eli always had it. He just lacked consistency. But anyone who saw him play regularly could see that he had the stuff early in his career, and saw his potential. Alot of these guys, they just look bad. And you know they suck pretty quickly.

It's not like a qb can just wake up one day and not suck anymore. That's not what happened with Eli. And to think that QB X can just wake up in year 4 and not suck bc that's some believe happened with Eli is just silly.

I was so wrong about Mark Barron

I'll keep this one short. I thought that was a bad draft pick. I was wrong. He looks like a stud.

Nmandi sucks

The big story today is Juan Castillo getting fired. And Nmandi called him out yesterday saying why did we switch up our coverages. Listen Nmandi, I know Juan isn't perfect, but you should be the last person to talk. You are not living up to your contract, you get burned routinely, can't play zone, can't even play the other side of the field or the slot, you're not even the best CB on your own team. DRC is better than you.

And don't ignore the fact that Calvin was beating you in the 4th quarter. You were brought in to be a shut down CB, and you're not even playing like a top 10 CB. This guy has easily been one of the most overrated FA pickups of the last 3 years.

They're trying to adjust their defensive coverages to accomodate Nmandi, and its not doing them any good. Because he's just not that good. He's just as much to blame on defense as anyone. Juan was a scapegoat. Juan inherited the wide 9 that leaves gaping holes in the run game. Juan inherited a diva CB who can only play man coverage on one side of the field. Juan inherited average safeties.

And on top of all of that, the Eagles had a pretty good defense. It wasn't Juan's fault. I'd blame Nmandi before I blame Juan if we're looking for scapegoats on defense.

Speaking of overrated CBs, Hi Brandon Flowers

Wake me up when this guy isn't getting burned every week.

Oh and about that Cromartie guy being top 6 in the league...

Held Andre Johnson to one catch and had an INT.

Shut down Reggie Wayne and had an INT.

Doing pretty well so far...I've been telling you guys, the Cromartie that the Jets have isn't the same player weve seen in SD. He's improved a lot under Rex, who knows how to use him. His talent gets overlooked bc he's an idiot and an easy joke, and an easy guy not to like, but he's a damn good CB.

Don't ice the kicker on long field goals

This is something I've been thinking about for a couple of weeks now. If the opponent needs a game winning 48+ yarder, don't ice the kicker. It makes no sense. You're giving them an extra chance to gauge how much power they need to kick it accurately.

It hurts you because the first try gives them the opportunity to know that they either need to

A) Take some leg off the kick so they can kick it more accurately
B) Or put more mustard on it

Why give them the chance to figure it out? Yeah I understand they should have gauged that in pregame warmups, but muscle memory is a lot easier when the reps are just 2 minutes apart vs 2 hours ago.

I would only ice kickers on easy kicks. Because you never know. Maybe you can see how their protections look the first time and get a 2nd chance to attack that blocking scheme. But in terms of icing the kicker on long kicks, DON'T DO IT.

Alex Smith left a lot of plays on the field

The Giants/49ers game wasn't even close. And Alex Smith is largely to blame for that. Not because of the 3 INTs though. That's the easy thing to blame.

What Alex Smith failed to do was pull the trigger the entire game. He had guys open downfield MANY times in the first half, and he just didnt have the guts to throw those passes. He had Walker wide open on PA pass down the field 4 times by my count for passes that would have been easily 20 yards apiece, he had Moss open for a big gain twice by my count, he had Mario Manningham open for a TD but didn't throw it accurately downfield. He easily left a minimum of 14 points on the field from those plays alone.

His problem is he's a captain checkdown. He will not throw it down field unless you are WIDE OPEN. And that's not a good qb. He's holding this team back. You can't expect to win a SB with that kind of qb play. There's a reason why Harbaugh looked at Peyton in the offseason. He knows what he has in Smith. He has an average qb who can ride the bus.

I'm intrigued by Kaepernick's potential. I'd love to see him play more, but you can't do that unless Smith gets hurt bc I don't think he gives the 49ers a better chance to win at this moment.

And as for Randy Moss, he still has it. He's not washed up. He just needs a qb who can get him the ball down the field. Smith isn't that guy.

I don't believe in Matt Schaub

Simple as the headline. I don't think Houston makes the SB because I don't think Schaub is capable of beating the other qbs who will be there in the playoffs.

You can make a strong case that Schaub will be the worst qb in the AFC in the playoffs. Ben will be there, Brady will be there, Peyton will probably be there, Rivers might be there.

In the playoffs, it often comes down to who has the better qb. It's a qb league, and the overall talent of all the teams in the playoffs are relatively equal. It's qb play that determines who advances. I don't know if Schaub is good enough to beat out some of those qbs to advance to a SB.

The blueprint to win in the playoffs

The blueprint to have a successful playoff team is simple:

1. You need an franchise qb. Without this, don't even bother. You can make some noise, but you're not going to the SB without one.

2. You need wide receivers. Forget OL. Look at the last 4 teams in the SB: Packers, Steelers, Giants, Patriots. None of them had great OLs. You need weapons. Weapons make plays, they dictate coverages, they dictate scheme. You need weapons for the qb to throw to. And you need cover guys to cover them. Which leads to item 3:

3. Pass rush. Pass rush is a relative term. It can be guys up front, it can also be the result of having a good secondary that allows you to bring more pressure. Regardless, you need pressure on the qb.

If you have those 3 items, you are a team built to succeed in the playoffs. If you don't, you are a regular season team.

Which is why I view teams like the Steelers, Broncos and Patriots as teams more probably to represent the AFC in the SB than the Texans.

It's why I view the Falcons as a regular season team until I see more out of their defense. They have the qb and WRs, but they lack the playmakers on defense to get the pass rush component they need to be a SB team.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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Brandon Flowers is rated right where he should be. The defense as a whole is playing like garbage, but Flowers isn't overrated. At least not by people who, you know, watch him play.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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No. He's overrated.

So is half the Chiefs roster. We severely overrated the talent on this team this offseason.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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The Falcons D has stepped up so far, but I'd like to see us against a premier offense. I don't think Denver counts as one, but I'd like to see how we stack up against the Packers/Giants of the world. I think you underrate our defensive playmakers because they don't have big names. Thomas DeCoud and William Moore are one of the top safety tandems in the game, DeCoud is tied for the NFL lead in picks. Sean Weatherspoon is one of the better 4-3 OLBs in football at this point. John Abraham can still rush the passer. I don't even need to tell you about Asante Samuel, who along with Mike Nolan seems to have added a swagger to this D. I really wish we still had Brent Grimes, but so far they've looked great.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:41 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
No. He's overrated.

So is half the Chiefs roster. We severely overrated the talent on this team this offseason.
It's hard to take you seriously when you're wrong about so many other things, so I'll chalk this up to you trolling like you do in the NBA thread. Good day sir!
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:41 PM    (permalink
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The Falcons D has stepped up so far, but I'd like to see us against a premier offense. I don't think Denver counts as one, but I'd like to see how we stack up against the Packers/Giants of the world. I think you underrate our defensive playmakers because they don't have big names. Thomas DeCoud and William Moore are one of the top safety tandems in the game, DeCoud is tied for the NFL lead in picks. Sean Weatherspoon is one of the better 4-3 OLBs in football at this point. John Abraham can still rush the passer. I don't even need to tell you about Asante Samuel, who along with Mike Nolan seems to have added a swagger to this D. I really wish we still had Brent Grimes, but so far they've looked great.
I do love your safeties, and I do love Asante, whom I've said ever since the trade was a complete steal.

But I'd be concerned about how deep your secondary is. I stated Item #2 for a reason:

Youre going to bump into a team in the playoffs that are 4 deep at WR/TE who can spread you out and take advantage of your defense. And with 1 singular pass rusher on the DL, it's going to be difficult to stop.

Which means Ryan is gonna get into at least 1 shoot out in the playoffs. And that puts a lot of pressure on him to deliver.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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I agree that you can make excuses for bad QBs easily, but even great QBs learn to elevate those around them more as they figure out the NFL. I bring this up with Sam Bradford in mind, a QB who's numbers are pretty bad and who hasn't excelled yet, but when you watch him play, he looks like he's getting it and could be that franchise guy as he does manage to run that offense for stretches where his receivers forget to screw up n he can beat the pass rush.

So how should we handle him? I could argue that given the talent around him he's doing a good job of elevating their talent for young QB, and he's certainly not been given the tools to succeed the way Eli, Peyton, Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Brady, Ben, etc have been. He doesn't have that #1 receiver who'll just beat his man that makes it easier to be successful while figuring out how to read defense like and before this year he hasn't had a great defense that let him get away with being less successful.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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It's hard to take you seriously when you're wrong about so many other things, so I'll chalk this up to you trolling like you do in the NBA thread. Good day sir!
Let it go man. The Chiefs aren't as talented as we thought they were. It's the cold hard truth.

I admit they'd be a lot better if they didn't have such an awful qb situation, but the talent isn't that great to begin with.

Guys like Boss, Moeki, Hillis, Flowers, Berry (YES, Eric Berry, I went there), your entire DL, depth at CB, this team just isn't that good.

You have some decent guys, some guys that are held back, but collectively, this team is an 8-8 team in terms of talent. A good qb can push it to 10-6, but we treated the roster as if it's a 12-4 caliber team if it had a qb.

It's not. And it's time to accept that.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:45 PM    (permalink
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Brandon Flowers is rated right where he should be. The defense as a whole is playing like garbage, but Flowers isn't overrated. At least not by people who, you know, watch him play.
I'm not entirely sure where we're rating Flowers these days but to me he's pretty much in that Webster, (pre 2012 Ike-Taylor), and Brent Grimes type class. You're comfortable with him as your #1 corner and he'll battle every play, but if you're an opposing QB you don't take out your primary read on a play because they're matched up with Flowers. He's well below the Haden, Revis, and Webb class.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:47 PM    (permalink
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The Bills chose not to ice Feely at the end of the game and I could not have been happier with that decision, even from 39 yards. With me always being right, the kick missed (possibly brushing the fingertips of Alex Carrington). Even when we do ice, we usually do it before the kicker has a chance to get a kick off. We don't wait until the snap, which I wish would really just go away.

I can't disagree with much of anything that BBD is saying about the Chiefs, right now.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:47 PM    (permalink
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I agree that you can make excuses for bad QBs easily, but even great QBs learn to elevate those around them more as they figure out the NFL. I bring this up with Sam Bradford in mind, a QB who's numbers are pretty bad and who hasn't excelled yet, but when you watch him play, he looks like he's getting it and could be that franchise guy as he does manage to run that offense for stretches where his receivers forget to screw up n he can beat the pass rush.

So how should we handle him? I could argue that given the talent around him he's doing a good job of elevating their talent for young QB, and he's certainly not been given the tools to succeed the way Eli, Peyton, Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Brady, Ben, etc have been. He doesn't have that #1 receiver who'll just beat his man that makes it easier to be successful while figuring out how to read defense like and before this year he hasn't had a great defense that let him get away with being less successful.
You see flashes with Bradford. But I'm 50/50 on him. I'm a Bradford fan, and I think he will succeed, but we also have to trust our eyes.

Right now, we see flashes, but we want to see more consistency. And for what it's worth, his pocket presence isn't great. And he's fragile.

But I see flashes. I'm rooting for him, but I don't know what to make of him right now.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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The Bills chose not to ice Feely at the end of the game and I could not have been happier with that decision, even from 39 yards. With me always being right, the kick missed (possibly brushing the fingertips of Alex Carrington). Even when we do ice, we usually do it before the kicker has a chance to get a kick off. We don't wait until the snap, which I wish would really just go away.

I can't disagree with much of anything that BBD is saying about the Chiefs, right now.
It's tough. I've personally seen icing the kicker work for Coughlin. But I just don't like it. I think if you want to "ice" him, call the timeout well before the snap. Give him another 40 seconds to think about the moment and give him some jitters.

I wouldn't do it. I'd actually love to see a stat on this: Icing the kicker on long kicks, how often is it successful? And how often do they miss it the first time then hit it the second time?
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:56 PM    (permalink
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I'm not entirely sure where we're rating Flowers these days but to me he's pretty much in that Webster, (pre 2012 Ike-Taylor), and Brent Grimes type class. You're comfortable with him as your #1 corner and he'll battle every play, but if you're an opposing QB you don't take out your primary read on a play because they're matched up with Flowers. He's well below the Haden, Revis, and Webb class.
I don't disagree with this assessment at all and I kind of thought that was the general thinking when it comes to Flowers. He's not elite but he's very good.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:56 PM    (permalink
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I do love your safeties, and I do love Asante, whom I've said ever since the trade was a complete steal.

But I'd be concerned about how deep your secondary is. I stated Item #2 for a reason:

Youre going to bump into a team in the playoffs that are 4 deep at WR/TE who can spread you out and take advantage of your defense. And with 1 singular pass rusher on the DL, it's going to be difficult to stop.

Which means Ryan is gonna get into at least 1 shoot out in the playoffs. And that puts a lot of pressure on him to deliver.
I don't disagree. We would look like a much better team with Brent Grimes still out there. Him going down hurt a lot.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:58 PM    (permalink
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I don't disagree with this assessment at all and I kind of thought that was the general thinking when it comes to Flowers. He's not elite but he's very good.
See this is where there's perhaps a misunderstanding. Bc I heard a ton of noise about this guy being a top 5 CB in the league. And he's not. Fringe top 10.

If we're calling him fringe top 10 then he's rated right where he should be. But that's not what we heard about the guy all offseason.
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Old 10-16-2012, 01:58 PM    (permalink
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Alex Smith left a lot of plays on the field

The Giants/49ers game wasn't even close. And Alex Smith is largely to blame for that. Not because of the 3 INTs though. That's the easy thing to blame.

What Alex Smith failed to do was pull the trigger the entire game. He had guys open downfield MANY times in the first half, and he just didnt have the guts to throw those passes. He had Walker wide open on PA pass down the field 4 times by my count for passes that would have been easily 20 yards apiece, he had Moss open for a big gain twice by my count, he had Mario Manningham open for a TD but didn't throw it accurately downfield. He easily left a minimum of 14 points on the field from those plays alone.

His problem is he's a captain checkdown. He will not throw it down field unless you are WIDE OPEN. And that's not a good qb. He's holding this team back. You can't expect to win a SB with that kind of qb play. There's a reason why Harbaugh looked at Peyton in the offseason. He knows what he has in Smith. He has an average qb who can ride the bus.

I'm intrigued by Kaepernick's potential. I'd love to see him play more, but you can't do that unless Smith gets hurt bc I don't think he gives the 49ers a better chance to win at this moment.

And as for Randy Moss, he still has it. He's not washed up. He just needs a qb who can get him the ball down the field. Smith isn't that guy.
Please. It was one game. The Alex Smith that we saw on Sunday wasn't the same that we had seen all season. He isn't a Captain Checkdown a la Trent Edwards or else he wouldn't be averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. It's not like he has been throwing short passes to Vernon Davis or Frank Gore in the flat and they're juking defenders taking one to the house. I will admit that he is trigger shy when throwing it down the field, but he doesn't consistently check down to the point of annoyance like you're implying.

And let's not forget that there a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL that can be too trigger happy just throwing it deep consistently hoping something sticks and end up causing a turnover or just missing them time after time.

This is the first time under the Harbaugh era that Alex was probably the main guy that cost the 49ers the game. He isn't going to be a megastar quarterback most likely, but he's decent enough to get the 49ers to the Super Bowl. I believe that, and I'm not even his biggest fan. Let's not forget last year in the playoffs against the Saints and against the Giants with a skeleton crew at wide receiver in his first season in yet another new offense.

And Harbaugh and company looked around at Peyton Manning because Smith currently wasn't under contract and it got to the point that they weren't sure he was coming back. The negotiations hadn't progressed. Manning was around. It would be stupid not to entertain him possibly coming to San Francisco.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:00 PM    (permalink
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I don't disagree. We would look like a much better team with Brent Grimes still out there. Him going down hurt a lot.
Losing Grimes was a big blow. I really thought you guys were gonna draft Boykin too. If you had Grimes and Boykin, I'd feel a lot better about that secondary.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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Let it go man. The Chiefs aren't as talented as we thought they were. It's the cold hard truth.

I admit they'd be a lot better if they didn't have such an awful qb situation, but the talent isn't that great to begin with.

Guys like Boss, Moeki, Hillis, Flowers, Berry (YES, Eric Berry, I went there), your entire DL, depth at CB, this team just isn't that good.

You have some decent guys, some guys that are held back, but collectively, this team is an 8-8 team in terms of talent. A good qb can push it to 10-6, but we treated the roster as if it's a 12-4 caliber team if it had a qb.

It's not. And it's time to accept that.
MoeAki and Berry are still recovering from torn ACLs. Boss is out for the year (and his career is probably over), Hillis has been hurt for a few weeks and it's obvious the foot problem that Flowers had in training camp and the preseason is still a factor. I'll give you the DL (even though Poe has been solid to good so far) and our depth at CB is god awful. Scott Pioli has done a pretty awful job bringing in talent through the draft but especially in FA, and in certain positions where it matters most.

This team DOES have talent, and with a franchise QB it would contend for the AFC West championship every year, but I don't know anyone (well, I know a few on these boards) who thought the Chiefs were a 12-14 win team and I've always thought it was ridiculous. I picked them to go 9-7 which I didn't think was out of the question before the season started with their easy schedule, but it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see that this is a bad team.

The Chiefs are easily the worst team in the NFL and I gotta say I think a very big part of it is coashing. Down 7-3 in Tampa Bay, making it a game, and coming out and surrendering 31 points? RAC is incapable of making adjustments at half time and Brian Daboll is completely incapable of thinking up a game plan that makes sense.

Yeah, they're a bad team, and they've been grossly overrated by some, but they're also not as bad as you're making them out to be talent wise.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:06 PM    (permalink
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Stafford is going to be fine. Regressing isn't really the term I'd use. Down 10 with 5 to go in the 4th and he brought them back. I think he deserves some credit. Could have easily thrown an INT or something instead he stepped up at the end of the game. Good QBs are the ones who can look like **** for 3 quarters and then win it in the 4th.

But yes, teams have made adjustments to how the Lions offense operates and I think its caused major problems early on. Pettigrew and Titus Young have played like ****. Burleson can still make plays but he's a lower end #2.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:06 PM    (permalink
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Nnamdi was excellent against Detroit. He gave up the one big catch to Calvin at the beginning of the fourth quarter, but that was the only catch he gave up all game. Nnamdi had mostly shut Calvin down until Castillo took him off of Calvin in the fourth. Calvin did most of his damage down the stretch against DRC. He's definitely not living up to his contract, but he played a great game on Sunday.

Brandon Flowers might be overrated, but former Chief Brandon Carr is worse than Flowers and is getting paid more.

Also, Suh isn't even in the discussion anymore for best DT from the 2011 draft class. He's a great pass rusher, but can't play the run to save his life. Sunday's game was actually probably one of his better games of his career, but he's been routinely gashed in the run game since he's entered the league.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:07 PM    (permalink
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Please. It was one game. The Alex Smith that we saw on Sunday wasn't the same that we had seen all season. He isn't a Captain Checkdown a la Trent Edwards or else he wouldn't be averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. I will admit that he is trigger shy when throwing it down the field, but he doesn't consistently check down to the point of annoyance like you're implying.

And let's not forget that there a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL that can be too trigger happy just throwing it deep consistently hoping something sticks and end up causing a turnover or just missing them time after time.

This is the first time under the Harbaugh era that Alex was probably the main guy that cost the 49ers the game. He isn't going to be a megastar quarterback most likely, but he's decent enough to get the 49ers to the Super Bowl. I believe that, and I'm not even his biggest fan. Let's not forget last year in the playoffs against the Saints and against the Giants with a skeleton crew at wide receiver in his first season in yet another new offense.

And Harbaugh and company looked around at Peyton Manning because Smith currently wasn't under contract and it got to the point that they weren't sure he was coming back. The negotiations hadn't progressed. Manning was around. It would be stupid not to entertain him possibly coming to San Francisco.
Outside of the 1 game vs the Saints in the playoffs, I haven't seen him ever throw down the field routinely.

And the only reason he did vs the Saints was because they overload blitzed him the entire game and left wide open passing lanes for him to do so.

He is what he is. The 49ers are loaded, but they need him to start throwing it into narrow windows down the field. Randy Moss is being wasted, Mario is being wasted, that offense isn't realize 70% of its potential bc Smith just doesn't go downfield unless the guy is wide open.

I've studied him for 7 games now since last year:

2 vs the Giants, 1 vs the Saints, 1 vs the Packers, vs the Vikings, vs the Lions, vs the Jets.

And in those 7 games, the ball never sailed 20 yards in the air unless the dude was WIDE OPEN. He left a lot of plays on the field where he had guys open downfield, but he wouldn't hit them bc it required a stick throw.

His yards per pass stat is misleading. A screen pass can go 20 yards and bring up the totals. I'm talking about him airing it out. He should do it a lot more than he does, but he doesn't.

He leaves plays on the field. I stand by that. Break down the 22 and you'll see those plays. He's trigger shy.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:12 PM    (permalink
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Nnamdi was excellent against Detroit. He gave up the one big catch to Calvin at the beginning of the fourth quarter, but that was the only catch he gave up all game. Nnamdi had mostly shut Calvin down until Castillo took him off of Calvin in the fourth. Calvin did most of his damage down the stretch against DRC. He's definitely not living up to his contract, but he played a great game on Sunday.

Brandon Flowers might be overrated, but former Chief Brandon Carr is worse than Flowers and is getting paid more.

Also, Suh isn't even in the discussion anymore for best DT from the 2011 draft class. He's a great pass rusher, but can't play the run to save his life. Sunday's game was actually probably one of his better games of his career, but he's been routinely gashed in the run game since he's entered the league.
I've seen Nmandi get burned way too often to give him any benefit of the doubt. But I do admit, he did well vs Megatron early in the game. It was probably his only good game of the season (excluding Cleveland in week 1).

The main point is, he should be the last person to call someone else out on defense.

As for Suh, I'm cautious about killing him about his run defense. It's the scheme. They run wide 9, they're not taught to play the run at all. It's a chaotic scheme that just tells them to shoot up field. I speculate how different his game would be in a different system.

He's also the focal point of every team's pass blocking.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:18 PM    (permalink
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Outside of the 1 game vs the Saints in the playoffs, I haven't seen him ever throw down the field routinely.

And the only reason he did vs the Saints was because they overload blitzed him the entire game and left wide open passing lanes for him to do so.

He is what he is. The 49ers are loaded, but they need him to start throwing it into narrow windows down the field. Randy Moss is being wasted, Mario is being wasted, that offense isn't realize 70% of its potential bc Smith just doesn't go downfield unless the guy is wide open.

I've studied him for 7 games now since last year:

2 vs the Giants, 1 vs the Saints, 1 vs the Packers, vs the Vikings, vs the Lions, vs the Jets.

And in those 7 games, the ball never sailed 20 yards in the air unless the dude was WIDE OPEN. He left a lot of plays on the field where he had guys open downfield, but he wouldn't hit them bc it required a stick throw.

His yards per pass stat is misleading. A screen pass can go 20 yards and bring up the totals. I'm talking about him airing it out. He should do it a lot more than he does, but he doesn't.

He leaves plays on the field. I stand by that. Break down the 22 and you'll see those plays. He's trigger shy.
He threw it down the field against the Bills with poise and accuracy the previous week, who I don't recall blitzing like crazy to the point of New Orleans.

He's not a mad bomber, but you don't need a Daryl Lamonica to get to the Super Bowl. That's ridiculous. And you have to understand that this is the same offense that was run at Stanford. I'm not sure how many Stanford games you watched. But it is virtually the same thing. The running game, usually, takes presidence. The 49ers were balanced close to 50% in run and pass last year which I believe was the closest of any team between that split last season. There is a video on YouTube floating around with Jim Harbaugh giving a long speech at San Diego State. The first thing that comes out of his mouth when he begins talking about football is protecting it. He stresses that ridiculously before he even talks about anything else. The 49ers are never going to be The Greatest Show on Turf, and even if they had Peyton Manning, they might not be throwing it as much either. And I think that was a reason why Manning decided on Denver instead of San Francisco. Manning wanted to do his system and Harbaugh and Roman wanted to do theirs. They run a very conservative offense in the air by nature. So it's not just Alex Smith like you're implying "holding the team back". The 49ers won a lot of game with his help last season. You've only watched seven games, which isn't a huge sample size.

And his YPA isn't misleading. I stand by what I said. If you watch the games and pay attention he isn't throwing screens the majority of the time in that offense. Guys aren't taking short throws to the house consistently in the passing game. Not enough to bring his YPA that high. So I don't know where you're getting that from. A good amount of Smith's throws go over the middle this year, compared to last when it wasn't the case and they were towards the sidelines. He's not just not bombing it down the field, doesn't mean he's a Captain Checkdown like you said.

Your statement of the games you did watch where he never throw a ball to a receiver more than 20 yards down the field unless he was wide open is also incorrect. I mean you $100 if we go back and watch those games that just isn't true.

I never said he wasn't gun shy at times when throwing it deep, but I completely disagree that he's a Captain Checkdown. That's just ignorance at it's finest. Especially since the 49ers have barely run any screen passes this season.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:24 PM    (permalink
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Stafford is going to be fine. Regressing isn't really the term I'd use. Down 10 with 5 to go in the 4th and he brought them back. I think he deserves some credit. Could have easily thrown an INT or something instead he stepped up at the end of the game. Good QBs are the ones who can look like **** for 3 quarters and then win it in the 4th.

But yes, teams have made adjustments to how the Lions offense operates and I think its caused major problems early on. Pettigrew and Titus Young have played like ****. Burleson can still make plays but he's a lower end #2.
I've been a big Stafford guy since his early years at Georgia. I really don't by the whole argument that a great QB can take mediocre talent and perform miracles. As you point out. where's the help after Calvin. The Eagles win was huge for their season but i think they can turn it around. I might be in the minority but i'd say a major part of their problem is their defense.
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Old 10-16-2012, 02:32 PM    (permalink
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Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Ness is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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You can probably count the number of quarterbacks on one hand in the last 25 years that can elevate a team full of street free agents to actually being decent players. It might be hard to believe, but in a team oriented sport like football, other players doing their job and and doing it well matters. Obviously you need a guy at the QB position that doesn't need to be dragged by everyone else, but you're going to be wasting your time trying to find a Peyton Manning that comes out once every 15 years or so.

We should call this the Archie Manning effect, who was actually thought to be a very talented player on a God-awful team.
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Originally Posted by Borat View Post
Oh, my bad. Didn't realize SWDC was the pinnacle of class and grace.
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