Mock Draft 3.0 - 12/17/12

[Duffman57]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

I think it's more a case of Lewan has proven he can play left tackle and Matthews hasn't.

That's why I've said it might be wise for Matthews to go back to Texas A&M for one more year. If he takes over for Joeckel at left tackle and proves that he can protect the blindside against elite SEC competition he could very well be a Top 3-5 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Also another thing is partially scheme fit. Matthews is better in a ZBS, he's a guy that is more of a turnout/angle blocker, while Lewan is a pure Mauler that will move guys off the ball. With San Diego being a power man run blocking team (though with a new coach that may change), and Matthews isn't a great fit for that, IMO.

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by Halsey

Is Amerson really that bad at CB, or are people stuck on a couple of bad games? Kind of reminds me of everyone being down on Mike Pouncey because they saw him have some bad games after switching to center and couldn't get over those memories.

That could be it to a degree.

I think people are also focusing too much on what he can't do and underestimating what he can.

[TACKLE]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

I think it's more a case of Lewan has proven he can play left tackle and Matthews hasn't.

That's why I've said it might be wise for Matthews to go back to Texas A&M for one more year. If he takes over for Joeckel at left tackle and proves that he can protect the blindside against elite SEC competition he could very well be a Top 3-5 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.

See by now I think we've all learned that the whole leftside/rightside thing is overblown. No one is doubting his movement skills as he's probably a more fluid athlete and has better change of direction than Joeckel. He's already proven he can shutdown elite SEC pass rushers and it doesn't really matter what side he did it on. It's not like he was getting chips from TE's and RB's in that Kevin Sumlin spread. Other than being 6'4, I don't see what's stopping him from being a top 10 pick.

And other than height, I really just don't see what makes Lewan nearly as good as Matthews. I was a big Lewan fan coming into the season because of his aggressiveness and the way he would get after guys in zone but he has a lot of work to do as a pass protector. His movement just isn't very natural, still leans way too much, doesn't anchor very well, doesn't punch very well. He has the edge on Matthews with his height and presumably arm length but Matthews punches and extends so much better than Lewan's length doesn't even make a difference. I really think he's better off going back to school and getting stronger. Matthews is just much more technically sound and is a much more coordinated athlete.

[Duffman57]

Originally Posted by TACKLE

See by now I think we've all learned that the whole leftside/rightside thing is overblown. No one is doubting his movement skills as he's probably a more fluid athlete and has better change of direction than Joeckel. He's already proven he can shutdown elite SEC pass rushers and it doesn't really matter what side he did it on. It's not like he was getting chips from TE's and RB's in that Kevin Sumlin spread. Other than being 6'4, I don't see what's stopping him from being a top 10 pick.

And other than height, I really just don't see what makes Lewan nearly as good as Matthews. I was a big Lewan fan coming into the season because of his aggressiveness and the way he would get after guys in zone but he has a lot of work to do as a pass protector. His movement just isn't very natural, still leans way too much, doesn't anchor very well, doesn't punch very well. He has the edge on Matthews with his height and presumably arm length but Matthews punches and extends so much better than Lewan's length doesn't even make a difference. I really think he's better off going back to school and getting stronger. Matthews is just much more technically sound and is a much more coordinated athlete.

Yeah, he got torn apart vs. Ohio St. for that exact reason.

Lewan is a FAR superior run blocker, and its not even close. Matthews just doesn't have the strength to move guys off the ball, at all. He's a good pass protector and will be good in a ZBS, but he will struggle bigtime runblocking in the NFL.

As for the LT/RT thing, there's some guys that can do it and theres some guys that cant. Gaither for example, when healthy and tries is one of the better LTs in the NFL, but you can see a FAR significant difference when he played RT, he just was never comfortable at all.

[Forenci]

I like the Ansah pick a lot. I think DE is becoming a big need for the Giants, oddly enough. As Scottyboy said earlier, Tuck is terrible ands gives no effort anymore. Osi is on his way out. Kiwi is a good, but not great rotational player.

I'd love to have another stud DE opposite of JPP. JPP and Ansah would be sooooo sweet.

Really though, its just BPA BPA BPA on defense and maybe an offensive linemen if a good one drops to us.

[Brown Leader]

I agree with everything Deepthreat's said in this thread.

[Caulibflower]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

Short may be able to do it but I don't think the five-technique / defensive end is his ideal role.

Perhaps not, but we could still use him. We could put him in for Alan Branch. He just blew me away with his quickness and consistent penetration, and that's what the Seahawks are lacking from their big guys, wherever they're lining them up.

[TACKLE]

Originally Posted by Duffman57

Yeah, he got torn apart vs. Ohio St. for that exact reason.

Lewan is a FAR superior run blocker, and its not even close. Matthews just doesn't have the strength to move guys off the ball, at all. He's a good pass protector and will be good in a ZBS, but he will struggle bigtime runblocking in the NFL.

I gotta disagree with you here to extent. Although, I do agree that Lewan is a superior run blocker (not a power run blocker per say, definitely best suited for an Alex Gibbs system), I don't agree that Matthews doesn't have the strength to move guys off the ball. He is stronger, stouter and more physical than his linemate Joeckel. That shows up all those times he is unsuccessfully bullrushed but opposing DE's. Always playing out of a 2-point certainly gives him (and Joeckel) an advantage in the pass game but puts him at a disadvantage as a run blocker. Put him in a 3-point with his weight going moving forward and with his strength and leverage (only being 6'4 and all) and I don't think anyone is questioning his ability to move people off the ball.

[Caulibflower]

I'm also really, really far from sold on Geno Smith. It seems like quite a few people are pretty lukewarm on him as a no. 1 overall choice. I feel like teams handicap themselves taking quarterbacks no. 1 overall who will be average pro starters. They should be taking a phenomenal talent, not picking for a position. I think pursuing position at the top of the draft is lacking foresight. You've always got to have a long-term picture. The Chiefs can address the position in a multitude of ways other than their first choice. Part of it's draft philosophy, part of it's how I see Smith as a prospect, but this is the first year in a while where I feel like a player whose a "consensus no. 1 pick" is a good shot to bust. I also don't think he's nearly the runner Donovan McNabb was. I might even want to call him a poor-man's McNabb. Not stoked about him at all as no. 1 overall. I'd call him a second rounder, but I'm not sure that even makes sense due to how much a team values the position determining his draft stock. But there are a lot of players I'd rate as superior football players, and if my team was picking first that's what I'd want them to pursue. I think I'm probably in the minority.

[Duffman57]

Originally Posted by TACKLE

I gotta disagree with you here to extent. Although, I do agree that Lewan is a superior run blocker (not a power run blocker per say, definitely best suited for an Alex Gibbs system), I don't agree that Matthews doesn't have the strength to move guys off the ball. He is stronger, stouter and more physical than his linemate Joeckel. That shows up all those times he is unsuccessfully bullrushed but opposing DE's. Always playing out of a 2-point certainly gives him (and Joeckel) an advantage in the pass game but puts him at a disadvantage as a run blocker. Put him in a 3-point with his weight going moving forward and with his strength and leverage (only being 6'4 and all) and I don't think anyone is questioning his ability to move people off the ball.

Watch him, i've never seen DE's up against him even try to bull rush him, everyone is playing contain vs. Manziel, so its insanely hard to get a read on his pass blocking ability. The more i watch both these guys it gets harder to judge. But GOD is Matthews first punch terrible. Every time i saw Hubbard rush, his first punch knocked Matthews back a step or two. His anchor seems a lot worse than you make it out to be, but it may just be that game vs. Bama. I gotta watch more on him, though i feel its best for him to stay the extra year.

[bucfan12]

Scott ,

I'm not sold on the Jonathon Banks pick. Too soft and not really physical at the LOS. Gives up too many completions.

Take BPA there or trade down for Xavier Rhodes who IMO is the best cb in the draft. Or dion Jordan there at 14. Wouldn't mind a dynamic edge rusher , something Tampa lacks.

[MassNole]

Originally Posted by vidae

I completely agree. To me, there is no such thing as value when it comes to QB. It's the most important position on the field, and if you identify a guy as the one you want to lead your franchise for the next decade, you take him. It doesn't matter if people think you're "reaching" for him. It doesn't matter if he isn't worthy of top 5 or top 10 or hell, first round consideration. If he's the guy you want and truly believe in, you take him. Period.

There is no position on the field that will impact this team more than QB.

And if you are identifying anyone in this draft as that guy you have no business running an NFL team. Geno Smith will set the Chiefs back a minimum of 5 years.

[farfromforgotten]

Originally Posted by MassNole

And if you are identifying anyone in this draft as that guy you have no business running an NFL team. Geno Smith will set the Chiefs back a minimum of 5 years.

What does this mean? How many years in a row have the Chiefs been "set back" as is? The last time they drafted a QB in the 1st round was 30 years ago. How's that working out? Who's the last decent QB they've had? Trent Green? The financial part of missing on a #1 overall pick is not as bad as it used to be. That's what used to set teams back, as you say. If Smith doesn't work out and it's been 2/3 years then the team is still going to be in position to take another QB and cut Smith.

The QB prospects available in this draft aren't as terrible as people are making them out to be. They just happened to follow the class that had Luck and RG3 at the top of it.

[ncst8fan83]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

That could be it to a degree.

I think people are also focusing too much on what he can't do and underestimating what he can.

After the Miami game, he really started to come along as a CB, I thought. He completely shut down his side of the field in a couple games and I think only allowed maybe one or two TDs the last ~7 games of the season.

Also, people really forget we play zone coverage and a LOT of the TDs attributed to Amerson were really the fault of the safety not playing their responsibility. Amerson isn't supposed to turn and run with the WR every play. Miami and Tennessee were HORRIBLE games for him this year, but he was really good the rest of the year. He didn't have 13 int's again, but were we really expecting another season like that? I don't think it's fair to him.

And the talk about him not being a fundamental tackler is just ridiculous and a result of reading about a prospect without watching the tape. If, for some strange reason, he were to come back for his senior season, I'd want him at FS. I think it utilizes his skills better and will be his natural NFL position.

[Pat Sims 90]

Olgetree plays for Georgia, so the Bengals more then likely will take him.

[njx9]

Originally Posted by MassNole

And if you are identifying anyone in this draft as that guy you have no business running an NFL team. Geno Smith will set the Chiefs back a minimum of 5 years.

set them back from continuing to be the worst team in the league? uhhh...

[vidae]

Originally Posted by Halsey

The Chiefs need to decide before free agency opens if there's a QB they like in the 2012 Draft. If not, they need to have the best veteran they can get long before the Draft starts. They should not hesitate to go to great lengths to get an Alex Smith, Cousins or whoever.

This is not a solution. This is what the Chiefs have done for three decades. We need to try something new. Plus Alex Smith sucks.

Originally Posted by njx9

set them back from continuing to be the worst team in the league? uhhh...

Yeah it sure would suck to go from 2-14 and worst team in the league to 1-15 and worst team in the league. That would be so awful for us.

[Bengals78]

Originally Posted by vidae

This is not a solution. This is what the Chiefs have done for three decades. We need to try something new. Plus Alex Smith sucks.



Yeah it sure would suck to go from 2-14 and worst team in the league to 1-15 and worst team in the league. That would be so awful for us.

You're right. It would suck. You should purge your players.
Hand over Eric Berry and no one gets a really briefly painful red mark on a part of your body because these have no accuracy.

[wicket]

any chance that the saints draft warmack and kick grubbs to RT, warmack gives the saints exactly what the offense needs, a guard that can man up but also just wont allow the pocket to collapse giving brees the ability to do what he did in previous years instead of struggling to stay alive like he has this year

[I_C_DeadPeople]

Originally Posted by Bengals78

Ogletree is a legit pick. Whether he ends up outside or inside it is a good pick.

He would be a great pick for the Bengals. Nice selection Scott although it is time to stop the "Bengals draft bad rep guys' routine..it's getting old. Their last 2 or 3 drafts have been stellar and they have even firmly and smartly dealt with Burfict (without spending a draft pick on him which so many predicted they would!!)

[KCStud]

Hey Scott,

Just curious why Tyler Wilson is a 2nd round pick? The Chiefs, Jags, Bills (owner publicly said they want a franchise QB) for sure need a QB.

I've heard his football IQ is incredible. Are there serious flaws in his game? Because I think he's had the toughest road a QB prospect could imagine having this year.

[Forenci]

Originally Posted by vidae

This is not a solution. This is what the Chiefs have done for three decades. We need to try something new. Plus Alex Smith sucks.



Yeah it sure would suck to go from 2-14 and worst team in the league to 1-15 and worst team in the league. That would be so awful for us.

My only thing is, do you think Geno is a franchise QB? If he isn't, is it worth setting your team back another 3-4 years? I personally say no. If I don't believe the guy is a difference maker, I would pass on him and wait for a better crop of QB's.

My problem with this group of QB's is that there really isn't any first round type of QB that is oozing with upside. I think Geno, Wilson, and Barkley COULD be good QB's, but I don't know if any of them have the potential to be great.

Now granted, you've had crap QB play for a long time so good goes a long way but is worth it? I wouldn't just take a QB to take one. I would ensure that I believe this guy could be a top signal caller, especially at the first pick.

If not, grab another stud at the top of the draft and wait a year for a better option.

[njx9]

Originally Posted by Forenci

My only thing is, do you think Geno is a franchise QB? If he isn't, is it worth setting your team back another 3-4 years? I personally say no. If I don't believe the guy is a difference maker, I would pass on him and wait for a better crop of QB's.

so you intentionally lose as many games as possible for another year and hope that someone next year sucks less? what if you somehow luck into 5 wins, and then you can't get your qb and you're left with the blaine gabbert/christian ponder's of next year?

always, always take a qb if you don't have one. unless it's just an absolutely horrific year (see: 1996 or 1997), you can't afford to wait. it's the most important position on the field, period.

and it's not even like this is 2007 where you're choosing between calvin johnson and brady quinn, when there's a reasonable argument for another player. nothing in the draft would impact the chiefs as much as a real qb.

[Caulibflower]

Originally Posted by njx9

so you intentionally lose as many games as possible for another year and hope that someone next year sucks less? what if you somehow luck into 5 wins, and then you can't get your qb and you're left with the blaine gabbert/christian ponder's of next year?

always, always take a qb if you don't have one. unless it's just an absolutely horrific year (see: 1996 or 1997), you can't afford to wait. it's the most important position on the field, period.

and it's not even like this is 2007 where you're choosing between calvin johnson and brady quinn, when there's a reasonable argument for another player. nothing in the draft would impact the chiefs as much as a real qb.

Why draft a guy who's going to play like Alex Smith when you could draft an impact player at another position and sign Alex Smith or someone similar? Or as has been mentioned, take Tyler Wilson at 33rd overall or something? The Bengals sure don't regret that strategy. The Seahawks don't. You've got to be trying to build a strong, deep team. Teams that choose a QB simply because they don't presently have a good one are just showing precisely why they're lousy teams - they pass on good players to pick guys who fit their needs on paper. Or worse, as I feel with Geno Smith, they pretty much go "Bad Rex" on their draft strategy. "**** it, we're taking a quarterback."

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by bucfan12

Scott ,

I'm not sold on the Jonathon Banks pick. Too soft and not really physical at the LOS. Gives up too many completions.

Take BPA there or trade down for Xavier Rhodes who IMO is the best cb in the draft. Or dion Jordan there at 14. Wouldn't mind a dynamic edge rusher , something Tampa lacks.

I agree that Banks is a bit of a reach in the Top 15 overall, and that's coming from someone who is one of his biggest supporters. I am a sucker for tall, rangy, athletic cover guys. It's a weak class of corners at the top of the draft though so someone may get pushed up.