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View Poll Results: Who gets your vote for Rookie of the Year right now?
Robert Griffin 55 37.93%
Andrew Luck 56 38.62%
Russell Wilson 34 23.45%
Voters: 145. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-18-2012, 05:22 PM    (permalink
tmljeh19
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Homer aside as much as possible it should be RG3 hands down.

Luck leading the lead in INTs. Enough said. I don't care that he throws more then the others. Watch some of his picks. More then half are complete AWFUL throws. Sure he's a rookie but you don't see Wilson or Griff making throws that bad.

Wilson has the benefit of a great running game AND a stellar defense. Griff has just as good of a running game but our D is downright brutal at times (first Giants game).
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Old 12-18-2012, 05:24 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Ghost of Juice View Post
I went with Griffin followed by Wilson and the Luck. First of all Rookie of the year is an individual award so team success shouldn't play much of a factor. Griffin has been really exciting to watch. He has been really accurate and has only thrown 4 interceptions as a rookie. I know he doesn't throw it as much as others but that is absolutely incredible. I have also seen his receivers drop alot of passes that any NFL WR should catch. He has made the Redskins relevant again. Wilson is a close second, he has been great. It just seems Like Wilson has "it" whatever that means to you. Luck has been great as well and he is gonna be great for a long time but he is still only completing 55 percent of his passes with almost as many picks as TDs. I know he has to throw more but still I cant justify putting him ahead of the other two. Luck has seemed to have a lot of luck, no pun intended, in some of those games. I think all those close wins have some people overlook the fact that he has had a fair share of growing pains and isn't the greatest player ever yet.
Imagine his QBR and completion % if we didn't drop 11 friggin passes in Pittsburgh
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Old 12-18-2012, 09:02 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
I'm not saying it's ok to throw interceptions and fumble, but Luck has attempted over 200 more passes than Griffin and Wilson.
Yet he still has fewer TD passes than Wilson, despite that ^.
But he is taller.
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Old 12-18-2012, 10:51 PM    (permalink
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I wish all these Luck voters saw the same thing in Dalton last year :P

Anyways, I voted for Wilson. It's not fair to RG3, but Wilson is having the exact same success and he's 3 inches shorter and was drafted 2 rounds later. He was never expected to do what he's doing and it's pretty fun to watch.

RG3 has been equally as amazing, so it's not really fair, just putting it out there though :)
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Old 12-18-2012, 10:58 PM    (permalink
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Luck. I like a QB who can play in a pro-offense and thrive passing the ball regardless of scenario.

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1354708604

Quote:
All three are obviously mobile players, but if you look at all situations where it is at least 3rd-and-10 and they throw the ball, then you get these numbers: Luck is 22-of-57 (38.6 percent), Wilson is 4-of-25 (16.0 percent) and Griffin is 2-of-35 (5.71 percent).

It is nearly inconceivable how big of a gap that is. Against Miami, Luck was 6-of-9 at converting through the air on 3rd-and-10. That's just one game.

Of all the things Luck's rookie season could go down as, the "best rookie ever on third down" should be one of the lines.
RGIII is inconceivably bad on third down especially when the yardage forces him to play out of a "pro" set and use his arm rather than depend on being "dual threat" or rely on Play Action.
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Old 12-19-2012, 07:32 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by J-Mike88 View Post
Yet he still has fewer TD passes than Wilson, despite that ^.
But he is taller.
Andrew Luck has put the ball in the endzone more than Wilson has.

and I don't mind that Wilson is short, but I'd still rather have Luck as my QB. So would 32 NFL franchises.
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Old 12-19-2012, 08:01 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Trogdor View Post
Luck. I like a QB who can play in a pro-offense and thrive passing the ball regardless of scenario.

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1354708604



RGIII is inconceivably bad on third down especially when the yardage forces him to play out of a "pro" set and use his arm rather than depend on being "dual threat" or rely on Play Action.
Generalizing. THat's okay. On 3rd and long situations it's usually the WR muffing the catch because RGIII has the ball coming in so hot, and not Robert throwing off target.

Besides the Redskins conversion rate on on 4tn down is 12/16. Griffin completed three late 4th downs against the Giants earlier this season, with one being a 4th a 10.

Digging real deep down in the stat barrel if the biggest argument in favor of Luck being ROTY is his 3rd down conversion rate.

Besides that, I don't think you can look at Luck's season thus far and conclude he's statistically had the best season out of any NFL rookie on offense.
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Old 12-19-2012, 08:08 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
Andrew Luck has put the ball in the endzone more than Wilson has.

and I don't mind that Wilson is short, but I'd still rather have Luck as my QB. So would 32 NFL franchises.
Wilson and RGIII have 24 total TDs.
Luck has 23 total TDs.


I think Luck also leads the league in INTs thrown for TDs.

I don't have an issue with people projecting Luck will be the better QB down the road, but is he the best rookie right now??
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Old 12-19-2012, 08:21 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
and I don't mind that Wilson is short, but I'd still rather have Luck as my QB. So would 32 NFL franchises.
That's true... but that seems to be why a lot of people voted for him as ROY here, not off overall performance.
The award should be based on merit.
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Old 12-19-2012, 08:29 AM    (permalink
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Luck has 25 TDs.

More importantly his team has nine wins despite a less than stellar defense and running game.
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Old 12-19-2012, 09:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
Luck has 25 TDs.

More importantly his team has nine wins despite a less than stellar defense and running game.
How can they run the ball when he's throwing it 40 times a game?
Again, despite all that passing, he has fewer TD throws than Russell Wilson does, yet way more interceptions. And each team has the same record.
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Old 12-19-2012, 09:18 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
Luck has 25 TDs.

More importantly his team has nine wins despite a less than stellar defense and running game.
May bad. Wasn't trying to be shady I just read those numbers wrong.
When do they give out OROTY???
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Old 12-19-2012, 09:41 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Generalizing. THat's okay. On 3rd and long situations it's usually the WR muffing the catch because RGIII has the ball coming in so hot, and not Robert throwing off target.

Besides the Redskins conversion rate on on 4tn down is 12/16. Griffin completed three late 4th downs against the Giants earlier this season, with one being a 4th a 10.

Digging real deep down in the stat barrel if the biggest argument in favor of Luck being ROTY is his 3rd down conversion rate.

Besides that, I don't think you can look at Luck's season thus far and conclude he's statistically had the best season out of any NFL rookie on offense.
Thank you for allowing me to dive deeper. I'll give you another one now just to demonstrate how twisted the "blame the WR" argument is.


http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1354708585

This graph shows that when RGIII COMPLETES (WR catches the ball) a pass it goes for a first down only 51.9% of the time. Why? Checkdowns, drags, screens, swings, etc. That 51.9% is the lowest mark of ANY QB in recent history. Lower than Jason Campbell, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell.

Fact remains that RGIII is asked to play SUPER safe and depend on his receivers to make plays and never force the ball.

Moving on to Luck: Same statistic. 81.9% of completions Luck has on first downs are first downs. Why? His offense is predicated on short passes, and depending on checkdowns or swings. When Luck completes a pass on 3rd down 81.9% of the time it goes for a first down.

By the way that mark is the highest in recent memory. Higher than Brees, Brady, and the Mannings.

Luck is asked to carry his team, with no running game help, and do it in a pro-style offense with the training wheels off. RGIII has the leagues best running game to lean on, a gimmicky offense with the training wheels firmly attached.


Now one more fun nugget of info just to really drive the point. "Clutchness". I hate it and feel it's unfair but it gets a ton of credence here.

Name the Rookie with the most 4th Quarter Comebacks as a rookie in NFL history: Andrew Luck.

Name the Rookie with the most Game Winning Drives as a rookie in NFL history: Andrew Luck.

How about the last measure which in the ends matters most? Win Probability Added.

Luck: 4.01 wins added.
RGIII: 2.76 wins added.
Wilson: 2.47 wins added.
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Old 12-19-2012, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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The graphic you linked was a comparison for rookie QBs 3rd down conversion rate.
What it doesn't tell you is what the average distance each QB is facing on 3rd down. Not just the percentage conversion, but how many times this season has each QB had to convert a 3rd and long(8+yards)??.

From what I've seen RGIII rarely has short yardage to convert 3rd down.

I don't have the stats, but I would bet he's faced more 3rd and 10+ yards than any QB in the league. THe Skins are like top 3 in penalties this season, many of them procedural with the Oline, and explains probably why he faces much greater yardage to convert AND why the Skins go for it more on 4th down AND convert(!) than any team in the NFL.

It has nothing to do with Kyle Shanahan playing conservatively with RGIII or his unwillingness to throw intermediate to long.

THat's why I think your interpretation of RGIII's 3rd down conversion rate is entirely wrong.

You don't lead the NFL in yards/pass attempt because of YAC.
You aren't top 5 in yards/completion because the offense you're running is remedial, or predicated on checkdowns, screens or swing passes.

You have to really see multiple games to realize the SKins don't throw an inordinate amount of swing passes/screens/checkdowns compared to any other team in the league.

Great for Luck on his 4th quarter comebacks. But IMO he's the one forcing his team to play from behind so often because he leads the league in turnovers.

EDIT: What is win probability??
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Old 12-19-2012, 01:52 PM    (permalink
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The way I look at is Luck is handling a much bigger responsibility than the others. He shoulders a larger burden honestly. If he were in the other QBs spots then he wouldn't have to take as many risks and his turnover #s would be lower.

I put Luck and Griffin side by side. Griffin is executing at a higher level, but Luck is operating a more difficult situation. Wilson is doing great, but there is very little doubt in my mind that if you subbed in Luck or Griffin there they wouldn't perform better in Seattle. Height has nothing to do with them just being better QBs than him.
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Old 12-19-2012, 03:32 PM    (permalink
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Griffin has 6 total turnovers. And the majority of his fumbles are from exchange issues or tosses that aren't really his fault bit he gets dinged for them.



Quote:
Originally Posted by ncst8fan83 View Post
I think Luck's play has been vastly overrated this year. As a team, they've beaten two teams with a winning record. He's a turnover machine. To put it into perspective, Luck throws 1 interception for every 31.3 attempts. Wilson throws 1 interception every 39.2 attempts. Griffin throws 1 for every 87.8 (!!!) attempts. Griffin fumbles more, but can probably be attributed to his running. Luck has fumbled 10 times to Griffin's 11. Wilson has fumbled 5 times.

Total Turnovers:
Luck - 28
Wilson - 14
Griffin - 15

Luck is very good and will be good for many MANY years to come. However, right now I'm giving it to Wilson, with Griffin a close 2nd.
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Old 12-19-2012, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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4th quarter comebacks are great and all but Luck has had to make up for the mistakes he's made. Eli and Romo do the same thing. But are you trying to say he's more clutch than Griff?

RG3 has 2 (Gmen and Bucs), but should be 4. He came back against the Ravens (Cousins simply cashed it in) had one ripped away earlier in the year by the Giants on top of that he closed out games against the Vikes, and Boys where the D was letting them come back.

To me this is a two horse race and one of them isn't Luck.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Trogdor View Post
Thank you for allowing me to dive deeper. I'll give you another one now just to demonstrate how twisted the "blame the WR" argument is.


http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1354708585

This graph shows that when RGIII COMPLETES (WR catches the ball) a pass it goes for a first down only 51.9% of the time. Why? Checkdowns, drags, screens, swings, etc. That 51.9% is the lowest mark of ANY QB in recent history. Lower than Jason Campbell, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell.

Fact remains that RGIII is asked to play SUPER safe and depend on his receivers to make plays and never force the ball.

Moving on to Luck: Same statistic. 81.9% of completions Luck has on first downs are first downs. Why? His offense is predicated on short passes, and depending on checkdowns or swings. When Luck completes a pass on 3rd down 81.9% of the time it goes for a first down.

By the way that mark is the highest in recent memory. Higher than Brees, Brady, and the Mannings.

Luck is asked to carry his team, with no running game help, and do it in a pro-style offense with the training wheels off. RGIII has the leagues best running game to lean on, a gimmicky offense with the training wheels firmly attached.


Now one more fun nugget of info just to really drive the point. "Clutchness". I hate it and feel it's unfair but it gets a ton of credence here.

Name the Rookie with the most 4th Quarter Comebacks as a rookie in NFL history: Andrew Luck.

Name the Rookie with the most Game Winning Drives as a rookie in NFL history: Andrew Luck.

How about the last measure which in the ends matters most? Win Probability Added.

Luck: 4.01 wins added.
RGIII: 2.76 wins added.
Wilson: 2.47 wins added.
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Old 12-19-2012, 03:58 PM    (permalink
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Great. Here we go again.
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Old 12-19-2012, 04:05 PM    (permalink
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RGIII should just get the OROY award for the next 5 years. That's how amazing he's been.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 12-19-2012, 05:17 PM    (permalink
falloutboy14
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
The graphic you linked was a comparison for rookie QBs 3rd down conversion rate.
What it doesn't tell you is what the average distance each QB is facing on 3rd down. Not just the percentage conversion, but how many times this season has each QB had to convert a 3rd and long(8+yards)??.
http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1354708604

Also here is the article that provided this and the above image (written Dec 5, so obviously it doesn't include more recent games): http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-in-the-clutch
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Old 12-19-2012, 05:56 PM    (permalink
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Luck has 25 TDs.

More importantly his team has nine wins despite a less than stellar defense and running game.
Key thing there, as you mentioned, is the running game. Luck doesn't have near the inside threat that Seattle and Washington has.
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Old 12-19-2012, 06:12 PM    (permalink
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Can't wait to see who wins this award, which group of debaters are proven right.
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Old 12-19-2012, 06:13 PM    (permalink
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It doesn't bother anyone that Luck is completing less than 50% of his passes his last three games??
I don't have anything particular against Luck, but I feel people are really forcing him as OROTY when there are other guys who've statistically been better this season.
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Old 12-19-2012, 06:16 PM    (permalink
J-Mike88
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It doesn't bother anyone that Luck is completing less than 50% of his passes his last three games??
No it doesn't ---because he was drafted #1, and because the Colts were horrible last year.
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Old 12-19-2012, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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The way I look at is Luck is handling a much bigger responsibility than the others. He shoulders a larger burden honestly. If he were in the other QBs spots then he wouldn't have to take as many risks and his turnover #s would be lower.

I put Luck and Griffin side by side. Griffin is executing at a higher level, but Luck is operating a more difficult situation. Wilson is doing great, but there is very little doubt in my mind that if you subbed in Luck or Griffin there they wouldn't perform better in Seattle. Height has nothing to do with them just being better QBs than him.
It's not a hypothetical award. Sure I'd be fine voting for Luck for the "who has it the roughest award".
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