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View Poll Results: Where will Alex Smith be next season
Buffalo 5 4.63%
Cleveland 10 9.26%
Kansas City 47 43.52%
Jacksonville 6 5.56%
Arizona 25 23.15%
NY Jets 10 9.26%
Other: Who 5 4.63%
Voters: 108. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-27-2013, 03:44 PM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
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Winslow, I love ya bro, I usually agree with a lot of stuff you say, but I just can't buy what you're selling me this time.

I guess we'll agree to disagree. Maybe I've been too emphatic the past couple of pages and I'm sorry for that. But I gotta take a break from this thread.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:45 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
He had 6 years! 6 years!!

You don't think a good qb would find a way to succeed after having 6 years in the league? 6 years!

He sucked for 6 years. Am I missing something here? He sucked for 6 years.

6 years. It's not like he was thrown away after 3 years and never got another chance. This dude sucked for 6 years.

6 years. You're telling me if Tom Brady also had 6 years to turn it around he wouldn't?

Tom Brady?! Tom ******* Brady?!

Come on man. Stop. Just stop.
I'm not comparing skill sets or saying Alex Smith is as good.

It is impossible to try to make a point on the internet without people taking it to the absolute extreme and reading into everything you said.

Also, Alex Smith sucked and fought injuries for ~4 years, the first 2 of which he had a god awful coaching staff and supporting cast, and clearly wasn't ready for the NFL.

Let's just completely ignore recent trends though because information about the player 7 years ago is much more relevant than that of the past 2 years.


Edit - My point was basically meant to be that while Tom Brady is ******* awesome, he probably would have even struggled in those first couple years as a quarterback on that team. I am more trying to say that while I don't think Smith is a top 10 QB talent wise, he can be a competent player and isn't as bad as most people are making him out to be.

However, I think the Chiefs may be one of the worst teams for him to go to especially if Bowe leaves, and think the trade sucked.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:46 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
There are definitely some good 2nd round picks but I think the vast majority end up riding the bench or being out of the league in a few years.



He did not have six years. You people really need to stop saying that. He had three years, really. He had no chance in 2005 and he was injured in 2007-2008. He only started 50 games before Harbaugh and he didn't even suck for most of that period, he was average.
He was given the opportunity to start for all 6 years. I can maybe give you his rookie year, but the years he was injured aren't all of the sudden off the table. He was given the opportunity to start for that team and win games, and he was lost for multiple seasons. Who is to blame? The OL this time?
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:46 PM    (permalink
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There are definitely some good 2nd round picks but I think the vast majority end up riding the bench or being out of the league in a few years.



He did not have six years. You people really need to stop saying that. He had three years, really. He had no chance in 2005 and he was injured in 2007-2008. He only started 50 games before Harbaugh and he didn't even suck for most of that period, he was average.
Oh yes, the whole, since he couldnt beat Shaun ******* Hill out for the starting job we don't count that as years played in the league since he didnt start. That totally helps his case about being a good quarterback in this league.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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This is true, but what's difficult is maintaining such an elite team around Smith to give him enough chances to realistically compete for that SB. We're in the FA era, teams change a lot year to year. To keep a top flight team intact is very very difficult and takes a lot of luck as well.

The teams with great qbs can manage around this bc whatever they lose in FA, their qb can pick up the slack and maintain similar production through the bumps along the road.

Smith is not that kind of qb. He won't make anyone around him better. And bc of that, you basically would have a 2 year window under the most perfect of circumstances to make a title run with this guy as your qb. And that would require the perfect storm to happen.

So why would you build your team under this model? It's just a bad model to build a team around.
Well if you have a good organization that knows how to make the right moves along with the right coaching you can still keep things together for quite some time. The Ravens finally capitalized on their 5 year run with Flacco and Harbaugh as head coaches. Ozzie Newsome has done a great job of keeping the talent level there competitive the entire period too. And all these years there was a boatload of hate towards Flacco (especially here) and he certainly wasn't deemed as great.

Having Alex Smith on the Chiefs isn't the problem. I'd say it's more so what they gave up to get him, which was a lot.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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But does he become a Hall of Fame quarterback if he stays with the Buccaneers? That was the entire point. ..... Or Atlanta with Favre. I mean was Archie Manning supposed to turn around that entire Saints franchise will little talent?
You gotta understand Ness, most of these kids on here aren't old enough to have learned those things.

They have NO idea Steve Young was a FLOP with the Bucs before his glory unfolded in San Fran after Montana.

They have no idea that the team that drafted Favre was Atlanta, and yet they gave him away after his rookie season.

Hell some of these kids here are too young to know that Drew Brees was LET GO by the Chargers.
And not only that, but the Miami Dolphins had their chance to sign Brees then, or Daunte Culpepper, and they went with Culpepper instead of Brees.

The QB position is very complicated, and the supporting cast is CRUCIAL.

To answer Ness' question, Steve Young would NOT have become a HOFer had he not been sent away from Tampa Bay. There was nothing to work with on those teams.... so bad that Bo Jackson, who was drafted by them #1 overall, told them to hit the road and he played baseball instead.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:50 PM    (permalink
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Can you tell me how many 2nd round picks in the last five years are currently starting? I imagine the number can't be very high. I agree that the price is a bit excessive but Smith can vastly improve the Chiefs. He may not be able to win a Super Bowl with the current roster but after a couple more years of adding talent it is entirely possible. Smith gives them those couple of years. The Chiefs should be competing for a playoff spot and, after this season, the fans and front office are going to be willing to give them more time if that is the case.

This is just a rough list. I'm sure I missed some guys. And I'm sure some guys I listed aren't starters. But about 40% of 2nd round picks are starters:

2012: Coby Fleener, Derek Wolfe, Janoris Jenkins, Cordy Glenn, Jonathan Martin, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Mychal Kendricks, Bobby Wagner, Peter Konz, Mike Adams, Lavonte David, Kelechi Osemele, Casey Hayward

2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jabaal Sheard, Akeem Ayers, Bruce Carter, Kyle Rudolph, Rahim Moore, Stefen Wisniewski, Stephen Paea, Mikel Leshoure, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, Randall Cobb

2010: Rodger Saffold, Chris Cook, Brian Price, T.J. Ward, Rob Gronkowski, Zane Beadles, Daryl Washington, Carlos Dunlap, Sean Lee, Golden Tate, Vladimir Ducasse, Brandon Spikes, Pat Angerer

2009: Louis Delmas, James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga, Eben Britton, Jarius Byrd, Conor Barwin, Max Unger, Andy Levitre, LeSean McCoy, Phil Loadholt, William Moore, Paul Kruger, Sebastian Vollmer, William Beatty, Sean Smith

2008: Jordy Nelson, Curtis Lofton, John Carlson, Chilo Rachal, Tracy Porter, Matt Forte, Jerome Simpson, Fred Davis, DeSean Jackson, Calais Campbell, Jason Jons, Ray Rice, Chad Henne, Martellus Bennett
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:50 PM    (permalink
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He was given the opportunity to start for all 6 years. I can maybe give you his rookie year, but the years he was injured aren't all of the sudden off the table. He was given the opportunity to start for that team and win games, and he was lost for multiple seasons. Who is to blame? The OL this time?
He was injured in 2007 and 2008. He did start in 2007 but suffered a serious injury that kept him out in 2008. I willingly admit that he was given the opportunity to start in 2009 and lost out to Shaun Hill, though I maintain that Hill was playing pretty good football at that point. In 2010 the only reason he was benched was because of the worst NFL head coach in the past decade trying to use him as a scapegoat. It was clear that Alex should have been the starter when he came back from injury. The 49ers would have probably made the playoffs that year if he was.

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Oh yes, the whole, since he couldnt beat Shaun ******* Hill out for the starting job we don't count that as years played in the league since he didnt start. That totally helps his case about being a good quarterback in this league.
That was one year and he was coming off a significant shoulder injury. He came in later that season and outplayed Hill.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:51 PM    (permalink
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I'm still waiting for a legit argument as to why Cassel is any different from Alex Smith.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:52 PM    (permalink
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Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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This is just a rough list. I'm sure I missed some guys. And I'm sure some guys I listed aren't starters. But about 40% of 2nd round picks are starters:

2012: Coby Fleener, Derek Wolfe, Janoris Jenkins, Cordy Glenn, Jonathan Martin, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Mychal Kendricks, Bobby Wagner, Peter Konz, Mike Adams, Lavonte David, Kelechi Osemele, Casey Hayward

2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jabaal Sheard, Akeem Ayers, Bruce Carter, Kyle Rudolph, Rahim Moore, Stefen Wisniewski, Stephen Paea, Mikel Leshoure, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, Randall Cobb

2010: Rodger Saffold, Chris Cook, Brian Price, T.J. Ward, Rob Gronkowski, Zane Beadles, Daryl Washington, Carlos Dunlap, Sean Lee, Golden Tate, Vladimir Ducasse, Brandon Spikes, Pat Angerer

2009: Louis Delmas, James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga, Eben Britton, Jarius Byrd, Conor Barwin, Max Unger, Andy Levitre, LeSean McCoy, Phil Loadholt, William Moore, Paul Kruger, Sebastian Vollmer, William Beatty, Sean Smith

2008: Jordy Nelson, Curtis Lofton, John Carlson, Chilo Rachal, Tracy Porter, Matt Forte, Jerome Simpson, Fred Davis, DeSean Jackson, Calais Campbell, Jason Jons, Ray Rice, Chad Henne, Martellus Bennett
So you have less than a 50% shot of drafting a starter in the second round. An even lower chance of drafting a good starter. Trading for Smith gives you a 100% chance of getting a solid starter.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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And how do this do anythign to help your argument that a good QB wouldnt have fared better than Smith had?
Please go back and read the countless posts where I said Tom Brady probably would have done better but I didn't think he would have been as great in such a poor situation.

Also Curtis Painter to Andrew Luck is like a handicapped blind kid with no legs in a wheel chair with wheels that don't work to Michael Jordan.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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Andrew Luck came into what appeared to be a terrible situation and a team with the #1 pick and he brought the Colts to the playoffs his first year. I'm pretty sure when you have a great QB they are a HUGE upgrade to your team.
Luck was the "greatest prospect since John Elway in 1983" & was the #1 overall pick, with a HOF WR Reggie Wayne there with him and some new fresh talent at WR.

So by that logic, all the Chiefs need to do is get into the playoffs and lose first round, and then Reid proved it was a great deal?

You people act like the #34 pick is on par with a top-5 pick or something.
See the trade value chart.

And the 2014 pick will not be a 2nd rounder. If it is, then Smith will have played lights-out and (hopefully) silenced his hataz.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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Good quarterbacks are going to find a way to succeed, even in the worst situations. They might even throw a bunch of picks some seasons, but they'll make huge plays.

Some guys come out of the gates hot, some take time to develop(Brees). Guys like Alex Smith and David Carr being coddled forever won't make them be good QBs. Starting on a team with pro bowl weapons all over the field won't make them a good QB. Early success vs. early failures won't make you a good QB, if you aren't the cause for the success (SANCHEZ).

I dunno why QB's get so many excuses lately when the team is bad. Tom Brady wouldn't have the rings he does now if he went to a crappy team from the jump, but he'd be every bit the good QB he is, and might have hit that point even earlier in his career, as putting the offense fully on his back and letting him attack downfield made him grow even more as a player.

This whole "omg, his bad team ruined him, or he would have been great!" stuff has to stop.
This is true with quarterbacks finding a way to excel, but at the same time I'd say the consistency with coaching staff also plays a role. Playing in 5 or 6 different systems every single year where EVERYONE including the quarterback has to adjust isn't going to help his development.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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He was injured in 2007 and 2008. He did start in 2007 but suffered a serious injury that kept him out in 2008. I willingly admit that he was given the opportunity to start in 2009 and lost out to Shaun Hill, though I maintain that Hill was playing pretty good football at that point. In 2010 the only reason he was benched was because of the worst NFL head coach in the past decade trying to use him as a scapegoat. It was clear that Alex should have been the starter when he came back from injury. The 49ers would have probably made the playoffs that year if he was.



That was one year and he was coming off a significant shoulder injury. He came in later that season and outplayed Hill.
He didn't just lose out to Shaun Hill. Before he was injured in 2008, he was beat in the preseason by J.T. O'Sullivan. Troy Smith got the start over a healthy Alex Smith at one point. IF Shaun Hill really is a top-20 QB, I can excuse not beating him out. But J.T. O'Sullivan and Troy Smith? That is inexcusable. And if you say those two guys are top-20 QBs...
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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So you have less than a 50% shot of drafting a starter in the second round. An even lower chance of drafting a good starter. Trading for Smith gives you a 100% chance of getting a solid starter.
With the word solid loosely defined.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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I'm still waiting for a legit argument as to why Cassel is any different from Alex Smith.
Dude.... every QB is different.

Just because the Patriots fleeced the old Chiefs on Cassell doesn't mean he has to be the same as Smith. WTF?

Reid clearly doesn't like Cassell, as Chief fans didn't either, booing the guy when he got injured.

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Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
What was Trent Dilfer's?
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:56 PM    (permalink
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Dude.... every QB is different.

Just because the Patriots fleeced the old Chiefs on Cassell doesn't mean he has to be the same as Smith. WTF?

Reid clearly doesn't like Cassell, as Chief fans didn't either, booing the guy when he got injured.
Chiefs fans didn't boo Cassel when he got injured.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:56 PM    (permalink
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This is just a rough list. I'm sure I missed some guys. And I'm sure some guys I listed aren't starters. But about 40% of 2nd round picks are starters:

2012: Coby Fleener, Derek Wolfe, Janoris Jenkins, Cordy Glenn, Jonathan Martin, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Mychal Kendricks, Bobby Wagner, Peter Konz, Mike Adams, Lavonte David, Kelechi Osemele, Casey Hayward

2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jabaal Sheard, Akeem Ayers, Bruce Carter, Kyle Rudolph, Rahim Moore, Stefen Wisniewski, Stephen Paea, Mikel Leshoure, Torrey Smith, Greg Little, Randall Cobb

2010: Rodger Saffold, Chris Cook, Brian Price, T.J. Ward, Rob Gronkowski, Zane Beadles, Daryl Washington, Carlos Dunlap, Sean Lee, Golden Tate, Vladimir Ducasse, Brandon Spikes, Pat Angerer

2009: Louis Delmas, James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga, Eben Britton, Jarius Byrd, Conor Barwin, Max Unger, Andy Levitre, LeSean McCoy, Phil Loadholt, William Moore, Paul Kruger, Sebastian Vollmer, William Beatty, Sean Smith

2008: Jordy Nelson, Curtis Lofton, John Carlson, Chilo Rachal, Tracy Porter, Matt Forte, Jerome Simpson, Fred Davis, DeSean Jackson, Calais Campbell, Jason Jons, Ray Rice, Chad Henne, Martellus Bennett
haha! Beat me to it by quite a lot.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:56 PM    (permalink
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So you have less than a 50% shot of drafting a starter in the second round. An even lower chance of drafting a good starter. Trading for Smith gives you a 100% chance of getting a solid starter.
About 50% of first round picks bust. 100% is better than 50% so I guess the 49ers should have held out for the first overall pick. The Chiefs got a steal.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:58 PM    (permalink
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I'm still waiting for a legit argument as to why Cassel is any different from Alex Smith.
Cassel's best season was not better than Smith before he got hurt this year. Cassel's 2010 season was about as good as Smith's 2011. Cassel subsequently had the chance to prove it wasn't a fluke and failed miserably. Cassel is also not a QB who anyone thought ever had talent. Smith, whether you think he was picked too high or not, was the #1 overall pick and had only started 50 games and shown improvement during that span before Harbaugh got there. The comparison is awful.

Cassel had a great TD/INT ratio in 2010 but he completed under 60% of his passes with a <7 YPA. More than a third of his completions went to running backs and another third went to a receiver who would often come down will balls thrown into triple coverage that year. Hate Smith as much as you want but he doesn't check down nearly as much. Only 16% of his completions went to running backs in 2011, and it was on pace to be even lower this year. Don't let things like facts get in your way, though.

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He didn't just lose out to Shaun Hill. Before he was injured in 2008, he was beat in the preseason by J.T. O'Sullivan. Troy Smith got the start over a healthy Alex Smith at one point. IF Shaun Hill really is a top-20 QB, I can excuse not beating him out. But J.T. O'Sullivan and Troy Smith? That is inexcusable. And if you say those two guys are top-20 QBs...
As I explained earlier, he didn't lose to JTO. He was still injured, he was diagnosed with a separated shoulder before the season. On September 10, the 49ers placed Smith on injured reserve after Dr. James Andrews confirmed the team's diagnosis of a broken bone in his shoulder,[17] believed to have been caused by a wire left in his shoulder from the previous surgery, which had sawed through the bone. Even if he had been healthy, he had no shot of beating out JTO. JTO was Martz's guy. Peyton Manning wasn't beating him out.

The Troy Smith thing was a result of Mike Singletary being an idiot, I already addressed that. Anyone who watched the 49ers play with Troy knew that Smith should be the starter when he came back but Mike Singletary needed to scapegoat someone to try and save his job. He chose Alex Smith.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:58 PM    (permalink
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And changing offensive systems is pretty overrated of an excuse as well. Jay Cutler has had 5 different offenses in the past 5 years. Or is it 6? I forget exactly how many.

But he's doing just fine.

NFL offenses aren't really all that different. Terminology may be different, but not really the playbooks. Playcalling is different, but the playbook is relatively the same. A slant is a slant no matter what type of offense you're running. A go is a go.

It's not the end of the world to change systems on a player.

Actually, changing offenses is harder on the players surrounding the qb vs the qb himself. Qbs adjust to the new offense rather quickly. It's the surrounding talent that can struggle at times, but even then it's overrated.

How do you think players get traded or cut and wind up on a new team and are ready to go within 2 weeks? The playbook is not that different.

Enough with the 6 different OCs and 6 different systems crap. It's just an excuse.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:59 PM    (permalink
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About 50% of first round picks bust. 100% is better than 50% so I guess the 49ers should have held out for the first overall pick. The Chiefs got a steal.
First round picks also have a much higher chance of being good or great players. Most of the those second round picks you listed are average or worse starters. Very few are great players.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:59 PM    (permalink
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Dude.... every QB is different.

Just because the Patriots fleeced the old Chiefs on Cassell doesn't mean he has to be the same as Smith. WTF?

Reid clearly doesn't like Cassell, as Chief fans didn't either, booing the guy when he got injured.


What was Trent Dilfer's?
So basically you can't give me a legit reason so you'll just say every qb is different?

Got it.

Continue on.

Still waiting for a legitimate argument.
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Old 02-27-2013, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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And changing offensive systems is pretty overrated of an excuse as well. Jay Cutler has had 5 different offenses in the past 5 years. Or is it 6? I forget exactly how many.

But he's doing just fine.

NFL offenses aren't really all that different. Terminology may be different, but not really the playbooks. Playcalling is different, but the playbook is relatively the same. A slant is a slant no matter what type of offense you're running. A go is a go.

It's not the end of the world to change systems on a player.

Actually, changing offenses is harder on the players surrounding the qb vs the qb himself. Qbs adjust to the new offense rather quickly. It's the surrounding talent that can struggle at times, but even then it's overrated.

How do you think players get traded or cut and wind up on a new team and are ready to go within 2 weeks? The playbook is not that different.

Enough with the 6 different OCs and 6 different systems crap. It's just an excuse.
I don't use that as an excuse, it is about having a competent OC not how many you have, but Jay Cutler has not performed any better than Alex Smith the past few seasons, even including Smith's 2010 season.
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