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View Poll Results: Where will Alex Smith be next season
Buffalo 5 4.63%
Cleveland 10 9.26%
Kansas City 47 43.52%
Jacksonville 6 5.56%
Arizona 25 23.15%
NY Jets 10 9.26%
Other: Who 5 4.63%
Voters: 108. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-30-2013, 07:30 AM    (permalink
abaddon41_80
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Originally Posted by scottyboy View Post
the revisionist history in this thread is hilarious. right. smith hit ONE pass to a WR. clearly super bowl leader. obviously made the plays to bring SF, the more talented team, to the super bowl. got 'em.
I don't even see your point. No one is trying to argue that Smith played great, or even good. He played decent just like Eli did. I don't know why it matters how many passes he completed to his receivers. If your receivers were Crabtree, who could not create any separation in the NFCCG, Kyle Williams, and Brett Swain would you want to throw to them? Would it have been better if Smith tried to force balls into tight windows and ended up with more completions to receivers but a couple of picks to go with them? No matter what Smith does he takes flack.

49ers go 13-3, it is all the defense and Gore. 49ers beat the Saints, good job on beating one of the worst defenses in the league. 49ers lose to the Giants, way to not outplay one of the best QBs in the league. Smith leads the league in completion percentage and passer rating, product of the system. It is like people can't give Smith credit for anything.

I feel like everyone just looks at his rookie season and thinks that is the QB he still is even though he has improved every year since then. Aren't QBs supposed to improve over time? Is it weird for a QB, who was considered raw and somewhat of a project coming out, to continue improving into their fifth season of play?
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Old 01-30-2013, 11:52 AM    (permalink
JeffSamardzijaIRISH
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Why wasn't Crabtree "the same player" last year vs this year?

The only difference was Kaepernick threw him the ball. Is it a coincidence that his numbers dramatically increased when Kaepernick took over?

No. His #s increased bc Alex Smith sucks.

And please don't ever discuss football with me again. You're a complete moron.

I won't even waste my time responding to the rest of it.
I don't think you remember that game too well. Crabtree had about 3-4 drops, most of them on 3rd down. The dude couldn't catch a cold that game.
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Old 01-30-2013, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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Kaepernick pre-decides more of his throws and locks on to the #1 target more often. That was Crabtree.

Smith was completing to Crabtree 73% of the time he targeted him. That was better than Brady to Welker.

Crabtree to start '11 was still working back from the foot and missed a game. And without preseason he didn't look comfortable in the offense. Had drops early in the season.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post...hawks-slipping
Fans were ready to write him off as a disappointment cause this would be the 3rd year of this inconsistency.
He did get it together eventually. Maybe he is a slow learner.
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Old 01-30-2013, 01:16 PM    (permalink
VAfy-ya
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Why wasn't Crabtree "the same player" last year vs this year?

The only difference was Kaepernick threw him the ball. Is it a coincidence that his numbers dramatically increased when Kaepernick took over?

No. His #s increased bc Alex Smith sucks.

And please don't ever discuss football with me again. You're a complete moron.

I won't even waste my time responding to the rest of it.
Your normally a good poster on anything but the Knicks(ha!) but this is a clear case where stats don't tell the whole story. Its not like Alex didn't have a hand in Crabs production total either. Crabs production steams from a couple of key factors.

-For once, Crabs was actually healthy throughout a full off-season, TC, and regular season. Don't overlook that one element. Nothing affects production more than a player's health.

-Injuries to Kyle Williams and MM late in the season factored into Crabs production. MM missed four games due to injury for the year. Williams missed six I believe. Its fair to say some of those catches and yards that Crabs could be attributed to their absence, as all our WRs have different packages that they're utilized in.

-The addition of Moss and MM, allowed Crabs to move to the slot on 3rd downs, which is where he thrived most of the year. Last year when our only receiving threat was VD and Crabs, he mainly lined up outside. He was our #1 WR and our only real receiving threat at the WR position because Ginn basically sucks and K. Williams was just a raw, second year player, still learning the ropes. So it was easy for teams to key in on Crabs. He doesn't posses the footspeed to make a safety stay home on his side of the field, so teams could concentrate their focus on VD. That's what your Giants did in the second half of the NFCCG. No team is worried about a Bret Swain winning one-on-one battles, so you double VD. Ginn was hurt so there's no deep speed to worry about. And you have Crabs lined up outside, where his lack of speed means your squat on ANYTHING underneath so he's basically a non-issue. Your not worried about go routes when you see Crabs lined up outside. Now Alex absolutely missed some windows of opportunities in that game but his windows were very, VERY limited, because of the personnel. That was the main issue. Now fast forward to this year. The biggest difference in our passing offense is that with the addition of Moss and MM, in 3-WR sets or mutiple receiver looks, Crabs can now work in the slot, where he should have been all along as a pro. No nickelback can handle Crabs in the slot. He's big, quick, has strong hands and is a terror after the catch, especially with the middle of the field to work with. With Moss and MM on the outside, two guys who you have to respect, your DC has to choose which safety and what side to give help to. And if VD is also at the end of the line, I guarantee your other safety has his eyes on him. That leaves Crabs one-on-one with a smallish nickelback, a battle he will win, 9 times out of 10. Teams have no anwser for Crabs in the slot. Its a mis-match every time. You see Alex abuse the Cards defense in that Monday Night game, simply by feeding Crabs the ball in the middle of the field and letting Crabs do the rest. CK did the same thing. Now did CK fits some balls in tighter windows than Alex? Absolutely. But that goes for every receiver, not just Crabs. But it was more about the personnel we added that forced defenses to play us different than anything related to who the QB was.

-VD's decrease in production is directed attributed to Crabs' increase in production. If you look at their numbers from 2011, Crabs just basically took the diffference from all the targets, catches, and yards from one year to the next. Teams were not going to let VD beat them in 2012. Watching the All 22, you can see instances where teams literally sent 3 and 4 players to VD's side of the field and bracketed coverage. They were going to make somebody else beat them. Force the QB to go somewhere else. CK and Alex did that. That really is the main culprit to the increase in Crabs production. Crabs was Alex's most targeted receiver before he got hurt. Defenses were already dictating production was going to go elsewhere. It was never a QB driven point of contention.
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Old 01-30-2013, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Ness View Post
I'd say the two games against the Falcons and Packers...well, I don't know if Alex dominates like that. Actually I'm quite sure he doesn't. Our defense was a lot more dominant last season and lately it's been floundering. Especially the defensive line.

Also, I don't see Smith going into Foxboro and throwing four touchdown passes, something he's never done in his career and Kaepernick did in his fifth or so start.

THIS.

"Alex Smith has a 2-25 career record as a starter when the San Francisco 49ers have allowed at least 24 points, while Colin Kaepernick is 3-1 in those games."

Also, that.
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Old 01-30-2013, 02:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
THIS.

"Alex Smith has a 2-25 career record as a starter when the San Francisco 49ers have allowed at least 24 points, while Colin Kaepernick is 3-1 in those games."

Also, that.
Not a surprise. Smith isn't a great QB who peaks with outstanding performances like some other QBs. But tends to avoid the lows.

And the team was a pile of garbage for the most part beyond Alex Smith other than 2006 when Norv and Larry Allen + Antonio Bryant were brought it. Defense still sucked giving up 400 points.

I mean the youngest QB in the NFL with a crap O-Line didn't win these game?

Start 1 vs. Super Bowl bound Colts. They sucked and scored 28.
@ WASH points allowed 52
@ SEA 41 points allowed

@ ARI 34 points allowed
vs PHI 38 points allowed
@ KAN 41 points allowed
vs SDG 48 points allowed
@ CHI 41 points allowed
@ NOR 34 points allowed
vs GNB 30 points allowed
vs ARI 26 points allowed

2007
Steelers put up 37 with a kick return and ran for 200 yards.

other two games 24+ was when Smith was playing with an injury and no surprise he couldn't keep up.

There were a couple close call in in late 2006 where he didn't shine when doing that could of won a game or at least tied it up late.
That ARI game is right after Antonio Bryant was kicked off the team and the new #1 WR was Arnaz Battle. This was also before Vernon Davis checked himself before he wrecked his self.

2009 and 2010 a lot of close calls and obvious Smith was not a great QB but just as obvious Smith wasn't the #1 reason why they weren't a playoff team. Pass Blocking still sucked and pass rush also sucked.
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Old 01-30-2013, 02:59 PM    (permalink
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I think Buffalo, Arizona and KC are the best options.
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Old 01-30-2013, 03:00 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by ViperVisor View Post
Not a surprise. Smith isn't a great QB who peaks with outstanding performances like some other QBs. But tends to avoid the lows.

And the team was a pile of garbage for the most part beyond Alex Smith other than 2006 when Norv and Larry Allen + Antonio Bryant were brought it. Defense still sucked giving up 400 points.

I mean the youngest QB in the NFL with a crap O-Line didn't win these game?

Start 1 vs. Super Bowl bound Colts. They sucked and scored 28.
@ WASH points allowed 52
@ SEA 41 points allowed

@ ARI 34 points allowed
vs PHI 38 points allowed
@ KAN 41 points allowed
vs SDG 48 points allowed
@ CHI 41 points allowed
@ NOR 34 points allowed
vs GNB 30 points allowed
vs ARI 26 points allowed

2007
Steelers put up 37 with a kick return and ran for 200 yards.

other two games 24+ was when Smith was playing with an injury and no surprise he couldn't keep up.

There were a couple close call in in late 2006 where he didn't shine when doing that could of won a game or at least tied it up late.
That ARI game is right after Antonio Bryant was kicked off the team and the new #1 WR was Arnaz Battle. This was also before Vernon Davis checked himself before he wrecked his self.

2009 and 2010 a lot of close calls and obvious Smith was not a great QB but just as obvious Smith wasn't the #1 reason why they weren't a playoff team. Pass Blocking still sucked and pass rush also sucked.
he doesn't have any low games, because he doesn't take chances. That hurts him more so than it helps him.
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Old 01-30-2013, 03:05 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by VAfy-ya View Post
bigbluedefense - you're normally a good poster on anything but the Knicks(ha!) but this is a clear case where stats don't tell the whole story. Its not like Alex didn't have a hand in Crabs production total either. Crabs production steams from a couple of key factors.

-For once, Crabs was actually healthy throughout a full off-season, TC, and regular season. Don't overlook that one element. Nothing affects production more than a player's health.

-Injuries to Kyle Williams and MM late in the season factored into Crabs production. MM missed four games due to injury for the year. Williams missed six I believe. Its fair to say some of those catches and yards that Crabs could be attributed to their absence, as all our WRs have different packages that they're utilized in.

-The addition of Moss and MM, allowed Crabs to move to the slot on 3rd downs, which is where he thrived most of the year. Last year when our only receiving threat was VD and Crabs, he mainly lined up outside. He was our #1 WR and our only real receiving threat at the WR position because Ginn basically sucks and K. Williams was just a raw, second year player, still learning the ropes. So it was easy for teams to key in on Crabs. He doesn't posses the footspeed to make a safety stay home on his side of the field, so teams could concentrate their focus on VD. That's what your Giants did in the second half of the NFCCG. No team is worried about a Bret Swain winning one-on-one battles, so you double VD. Ginn was hurt so there's no deep speed to worry about. And you have Crabs lined up outside, where his lack of speed means your squat on ANYTHING underneath so he's basically a non-issue. Your not worried about go routes when you see Crabs lined up outside. Now Alex absolutely missed some windows of opportunities in that game but his windows were very, VERY limited, because of the personnel. That was the main issue. Now fast forward to this year. The biggest difference in our passing offense is that with the addition of Moss and MM, in 3-WR sets or mutiple receiver looks, Crabs can now work in the slot, where he should have been all along as a pro. No nickelback can handle Crabs in the slot. He's big, quick, has strong hands and is a terror after the catch, especially with the middle of the field to work with. With Moss and MM on the outside, two guys who you have to respect, your DC has to choose which safety and what side to give help to. And if VD is also at the end of the line, I guarantee your other safety has his eyes on him. That leaves Crabs one-on-one with a smallish nickelback, a battle he will win, 9 times out of 10. Teams have no anwser for Crabs in the slot. Its a mis-match every time. You see Alex abuse the Cards defense in that Monday Night game, simply by feeding Crabs the ball in the middle of the field and letting Crabs do the rest. CK did the same thing. Now did CK fits some balls in tighter windows than Alex? Absolutely. But that goes for every receiver, not just Crabs. But it was more about the personnel we added that forced defenses to play us different than anything related to who the QB was.

-VD's decrease in production is directed attributed to Crabs' increase in production. If you look at their numbers from 2011, Crabs just basically took the diffference from all the targets, catches, and yards from one year to the next. Teams were not going to let VD beat them in 2012. Watching the All 22, you can see instances where teams literally sent 3 and 4 players to VD's side of the field and bracketed coverage. They were going to make somebody else beat them. Force the QB to go somewhere else. CK and Alex did that. That really is the main culprit to the increase in Crabs production. Crabs was Alex's most targeted receiver before he got hurt. Defenses were already dictating production was going to go elsewhere. It was never a QB driven point of contention.
Don't explain all that to him... he'd rather just look at the stats of Crabtree and say that proves that Smith sucks. That's is deep as he wants to go.

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Originally Posted by regoob2 View Post
I think Buffalo, Arizona and KC are the best options.
But if it's a trade, you'd expect it to be KC or Buffalo, send him to the AFC and certainly not keep him in the same division. If Arizona gets good play at QB, they're good.
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Old 01-30-2013, 03:10 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
THIS.

"Alex Smith has a 2-25 career record as a starter when the San Francisco 49ers have allowed at least 24 points, while Colin Kaepernick is 3-1 in those games."

Also, that.
That is a bad statistic because most of Smith's games like that came when the 49ers were coached my the likes of Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary with such elite offensive coordinators as Jimmy Raye and Jim Hostler and top-tier receiving talent like Arnaz Battle and Darell Jackson.

Smith is 3-3 in games where the 49ers have allowed 23+ points since 2011, Kaepernick is 3-1. Coincidentally, Smith was also 3-1 in his first season starting under Harbaugh.

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Old 01-30-2013, 03:12 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Brothgar View Post
The fact of the matter is there isn't an NFL QB that COULDN'T take his team to the super bowl. Sorry to say it but it is the truth.
But bigblue claims Smith is incapable.
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Originally Posted by phlysac View Post
http://blip.tv/49ersnews/kwame-harris-lowlights-4602367

Watching this makes me appreciate the O-Line play as it's currently constructed.

It also makes me realize how unfair it was to solely bash Alex Smith as so many did, back then. The fact that he is still even "average" and "starting quality" after going through those first couple years is astounding.
No, that OL, and the fact that the WR's sucked, and the fact that they switched Offensive Coordinators as often as Kim Kardashian switches Chocolate Tootsie Rolls..... that had nothing to do with Smith's struggles at times.
He obviously was improving as evidenced by his last full game this year.
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Old 01-30-2013, 03:13 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by PACKmanN View Post
he doesn't have any low games, because he doesn't take chances. That hurts him more so than it helps him.
This is fantasy football thinking.

The NFL has not changed. Turnovers are still the #1 indicator of winning or losing.

You do need to move the ball to score but can't do that without possession of the ball.
Smith was moving the ball well with 7.97 yards per attempt.

He was throwing down-field when it opened up but he was throwing them a stride or 2 far for the WRs. It is strange he hasn't been able to connect since Bryant while being able to drop passes right into Vernon Davis going up-field.
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Old 01-30-2013, 04:47 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by ViperVisor View Post
This is fantasy football thinking.

The NFL has not changed. Turnovers are still the #1 indicator of winning or losing.

You do need to move the ball to score but can't do that without possession of the ball.
Smith was moving the ball well with 7.97 yards per attempt.
That's a great fact.
Very underrated, those silly little turnovers.
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Old 01-30-2013, 07:59 PM    (permalink
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There's no reason not to trade Kaepernick then. They can get way more for him,and apparently Smith is just as good.
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Old 01-30-2013, 08:03 PM    (permalink
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This is fantasy football thinking.

The NFL has not changed. Turnovers are still the #1 indicator of winning or losing.

You do need to move the ball to score but can't do that without possession of the ball.
Smith was moving the ball well with 7.97 yards per attempt.

He was throwing down-field when it opened up but he was throwing them a stride or 2 far for the WRs. It is strange he hasn't been able to connect since Bryant while being able to drop passes right into Vernon Davis going up-field.
This is correlation, not causation. Interceptions are far more likely when a team is already playing from behind, and this is a huge part of the reason that good quarterbacks on otherwise average/bad teams have turned in 20+ interception seasons.

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Old 01-30-2013, 08:05 PM    (permalink
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There's no reason not to trade Kaepernick then. They can get way more for him,and apparently Smith is just as good.
No one is saying that, but the argument that Alex Smith isn't a viable quarterback is stupid as ****.
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Old 01-30-2013, 08:08 PM    (permalink
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What's viable? Can be passable on the most stacked team in the league? You could probably plug him into the Patriots after they went 16-0 and go 10-6!!!

This team is way more explosive and dangerous with Colin. That's why Harbaugh was waiting for any reason to put him in there. Colin isn't even a GREAT player yet, and he's still a big upgrade.
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Old 01-30-2013, 08:25 PM    (permalink
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What's viable? Can be passable on the most stacked team in the league?
That same "stacked" team that couldn't make the playoffs with nearly the same roster before Harbaugh arrived?

A new coaching staff and philosophy didn't just improve Alex Smith, it improved everyone. Yet, only Smith is dubbed a product of Harbaugh.


The only starters in 2011 who weren't on the roster in 2010 were...

FB - Bruce Miller
C - Jonathan Goodwin
CB - Carlos Rogers
S - Donte Whitner

Didn't make the playoffs. "Stacked."
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Old 01-30-2013, 08:39 PM    (permalink
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Lol. Uh, Aldon Smith? Is it even disputable that the 49ers have the best offensive line and defensive front 7 in football?

49ers fans are really downplaying their great players to glorify their backup QB. Is this Andy Reid psychology to fool other teams into taking him for multiple picks? If not, I'm baffled.
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Old 01-30-2013, 08:44 PM    (permalink
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Lol. Uh, Aldon Smith? Is it even disputable that the 49ers have the best offensive line and defensive front 7 in football?

49ers fans are really downplaying their great players to glorify their backup QB. Is this Andy Reid psychology to fool other teams into taking him for multiple picks? If not, I'm baffled.


I think you're mad.
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Old 01-30-2013, 08:49 PM    (permalink
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Lol. Uh, Aldon Smith? Is it even disputable that the 49ers have the best offensive line and defensive front 7 in football?

49ers fans are really downplaying their great players to glorify their backup QB. Is this Andy Reid psychology to fool other teams into taking him for multiple picks? If not, I'm baffled.
Why so mad bro?

Alex Smith beat my team week one this year.
Alex Smith beat your team in the playoffs last year even with no WR's.
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Old 01-30-2013, 08:52 PM    (permalink
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Arizona will probably be the best spot for him, but something tells me the Cards are sick of going down that road and will look to draft their guy. Buffalo is a sensible option, since he can be an effective game manager there. I think the Jets will throw the most money at him, Ryan will try to save his job.
I think Weeden played well enough to warrant another shot with Cleveland. Jacksonville could use a quarterback and the weather is nice. Henne is a nice backup, but shouldn't be the starter. I went with the Jets.
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Old 01-30-2013, 08:59 PM    (permalink
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Phlysac, honest question. I want to go more into the "product of the system" thing. Do you feel like the line gelling, and the defense improving from pre-Harbaugh is more Harbaugh being able to coach and implement a strong system than just natural maturation as players?

I think a lot of people could see the 9ers were really talented for years, and guys like Mike Iupati were still growing, and then they added a DOMINANT pass rusher to an already strong front 7, etc.

Alex Smith is obviously better than he used to be, but with their protection, running game, and Vernon Davis, I felt like the offense had more potential than it was showing, and Alex Smith's timidness was a big part of the problem, either that, or the coaching staff didn't trust him enough to really let him push the ball downfield.

And seriously, J-Mike, if you weren't so damn stupid, I'd think you were trolling. I'm a Saints fan, I have WAY more things to be mad about than losing in the last seconds to a 13-3 team, in their house. We lost to the 7-9 Seahawks. If the Falcons won a superbowl in my building, I'd be mad.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:00 PM    (permalink
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I don't think AZ is going to be it.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:02 PM    (permalink
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Lol. Uh, Aldon Smith? Is it even disputable that the 49ers have the best offensive line and defensive front 7 in football?

49ers fans are really downplaying their great players to glorify their backup QB. Is this Andy Reid psychology to fool other teams into taking him for multiple picks? If not, I'm baffled.
Aldon Smith started ZERO games in 2011. Parys Haralson started at OLB.
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