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Old 04-12-2013, 09:55 AM    (permalink
UTPATS
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With that said... Does anyone really think all three of these OT are going to be studs? I have a hard time believing they all will pan out based on the law of averages...

When was the last time the top 3 OT drafted all panned out. Especially this early in the draft.

In 2010 you had Trent Williams, Alex Okung and Anthony Davis. Those guys are probably the closest to being about what everyone hoped for. And Williams and Okung had some injuries that hampered their careers thus far.

In 2009 you had Jason Smith, Andre Smith and Eugene Monroe all drafted in the top 10. I don't think that worked out for anyone really. Oher at 23 might have arguably been the best pick.

In 2008 you had Jake Long (stud), Ryan Clady (stud), Brandon Albert (semi-stud), Goster Cherilus (mixed reviews). But other than Long, none of the others were drafted top 10.

So, taking 3 OT in the top 4 picks cannot be a good sign for all three becoming the studs that a top 5 pick should be.

It would seem to me that trying to trade for someone else's franchise LT after their rookie contract was almost up would be more appealing than taking a chance on one of these three this early in the draft.

I can certainly make an argument on why these teams drafted these OT instead of other possibilities, but I just don't think history is on their side. They might be better off taking the best defensive player available in the top 5 and waiting on OT in the 2nd or 3rd.
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Old 04-12-2013, 09:57 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by UTPATS View Post
With that said... Does anyone really think all three of these OT are going to be studs? I have a hard time believing they all will pan out based on the law of averages...
Compared to other prospects in this draft, I trust the tackles to have some of the highest floors of the draft class. Their ceilings also are pretty high.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:06 AM    (permalink
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It's funny, I offered Oakland a ton for the #3 pick equal to the Trade value Chart.
2013 1st rounder
2013 4th rounder
2013 6th rounder
2014 2nd rounder
2014 4th rounder

a total of 2106 value points for the #3 pick worth 2200 value points.

In the meantime the Jets approached me with a better deal but I turned them down based on my word to Oakland and told the Jets I wouldn't renege on my offer and asked Oakland to PM the trade to D-Unit.
Oakland accepted it at first but then asked for more time to find a better deal when I requested they finalize the deal with D-Unit, I accepted his request but pointed out, it also meant I could look for a better deal as well. That's when I approached the Jets and finalized a deal that was dependent on 2 of the LT's still standing after the 2nd pick had been made, as that would guarantee that Buffalo got at least one of them, if the first 2 picks included LT's then I would make the trade with Oakland to ensure I got the final LT.
Oakland really screwed themselves out of a very solid trade with Buffalo, just goes to show that you shouldn't get too greedy.


Final trade with the Jets for the #4 overall pick for Buffalo's
2013 1st rounder
2013 3rd rounder
2014 3rd rounder

From the 2 mocks I have done, no LT has got past the 5th pick in thhe draft with trades a prime mover so there should be some real trades among the top 5 teams.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:09 AM    (permalink
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I agree, I think these tackles are some of the safest investments in the draft. Many of the other top prospects would make me pretty nervous. For example, guys like Ezekiel Ansah, Dion Jordan, and Barkevious Mingo are frequently considered some of the elite pass rushers in the class, but the three combined for just fourteen sacks last season. Many consider Jarvis Jones to be below those guys, but he actually had more sacks than all of them combined, with much better auxiliary numbers such as tackles, TFL, hurries, forced fumbles, etc. That's not to say some of the high-upside guys I mentioned before can't turn out to be the better pro players, but you're basically investing in the physical attributes of a dangerous rusher, not someone who has actually shown the ability to dominate on anything resembling a consistent basis.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:11 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UTPATS View Post
With that said... Does anyone really think all three of these OT are going to be studs? I have a hard time believing they all will pan out based on the law of averages...
You have to take that shot since the position is so important to a football team, the risk is just as dangerous for other positions but the reward is far less. The chances for success actually increases, the more top prospects you have at a position, they get compared to other studs. It's when one stands out over the others that there is more risk, because you have nothing to gauge him by.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:12 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by princefielder28 View Post
Compared to other prospects in this draft, I trust the tackles to have some of the highest floors of the draft class. Their ceilings also are pretty high.

That may very well be the case. But I am going to go out on a limb and say one of the three will be a total bust and one will be a total stud. The other will be fairly mediocre.

Now, the real question is, DO YOU TRUST YOUR SCOUTING?. Because you DON'T WANT TO BE WRONG!
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:13 AM    (permalink
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What has 3 OT's got to do with it?

Evaluate the players separately. If you think Lane Johnson is going to be an All-Pro, you don't decide not to take him because 2 other OT's have gone before him. That makes no sense.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:16 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
You have to take that shot since the position is so important to a football team, the risk is just as dangerous for other positions but the reward is far less. The chances for success actually increases, the more top prospects you have at a position, they get compared to other studs. It's when one stands out over the others that there is more risk, because you have nothing to gauge him by.
I don't think the risk is as high, considering bust QBs are out of the nfl in 2-3 years whereas a bust LT usually is still a solid RT or even G, which obviously isn't the value you want from a top 5 pick, but it's better than nothing.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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What has 3 OT's got to do with it?

Evaluate the players separately. If you think Lane Johnson is going to be an All-Pro, you don't decide not to take him because 2 other OT's have gone before him. That makes no sense.
I understand.. I just think that these guys have been pushed up boards and overhyped because of the lack of "talent" this year as compared to previous season, especially on the heels of draft such as last year.

No way 3 OTs go in the top 4 picks of drafts most years...... NO WAY!
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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I don't think the risk is as high, considering bust QBs are out of the nfl in 2-3 years whereas a bust LT usually is still a solid RT or even G, which obviously isn't the value you want from a top 5 pick, but it's better than nothing.
True, and all three of these guys can be versatile enough to do that in case they don't meet expectations.

I just don't think it's worth moving up to get one of these guys considering what has been asked to move up.

That's the beauty of these mock drafts, much like real life, all it takes is one GM who wants to make the deal to move up...
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:27 AM    (permalink
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On a separate note, which NFL position does Carlos Quentin (San Diego Padres) best fit? OLB, MLB, SS, TE?

I thought he should have formed up last night, but he did a great job of trying to blow up the lead blocker...
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:27 AM    (permalink
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I understand.. I just think that these guys have been pushed up boards and overhyped because of the lack of "talent" this year as compared to previous season, especially on the heels of draft such as last year.

No way 3 OTs go in the top 4 picks of drafts most years...... NO WAY!
What does what happens most years have to do with this draft class, though? Most years, there's no way that the first overall pick is anything but a quarterback, and there's no way that three or four quarterbacks don't go in the first round. That doesn't mean Geno Smith should go number one, and we should see teams trading back in for guys like E.J. Manuel and Ryan Nassib.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:34 AM    (permalink
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What does what happens most years have to do with this draft class, though? Most years, there's no way that the first overall pick is anything but a quarterback, and there's no way that three or four quarterbacks don't go in the first round. That doesn't mean Geno Smith should go number one, and we should see teams trading back in for guys like E.J. Manuel and Ryan Nassib.
I guess it's personal preference. I value picks in the 3rd and 4th and definitely value future picks more than others.

I like how guys are seeing who they want and are trying to move up and grab who they want, regardless of the cost. My personal opinion is that maybe not every "juice" is worth the squeeze...
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:34 AM    (permalink
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i'll be out and about most of the day, trying to check in as best I can, but texts (and sexts) would be appreciated. D's got my number, I know J-boogie has it...and sadly I feel a lot of people here do as well.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:40 AM    (permalink
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I understand.. I just think that these guys have been pushed up boards and overhyped because of the lack of "talent" this year as compared to previous season, especially on the heels of draft such as last year.

No way 3 OTs go in the top 4 picks of drafts most years...... NO WAY!
That has nothing to do with the law of averages and the fact that it is 3 OT's. That's just because the top of this draft class sucks.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:43 AM    (permalink
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Best thing about forum mocks is how much QBs drop.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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That has nothing to do with the law of averages and the fact that it is 3 OT's. That's just because the top of this draft class sucks.
Maybe so, SP, maybe so...Is it worth two 3rd round picks? Maybe...

Is it worth two 4ths, a 2nd and a 6th? Maybe...

I just wanted to share my opinion on the matter. I don't think all three will turn out well. And I don't think moving up to take one of them is worth it... But, like I said before, all it takes is one person who thinks so...
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:46 AM    (permalink
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I'll tell you one thing, when I got a call from RaiderNation last night at midnight, saying the draft was already underway, and the first 2 picks were in, I pissed my pants trying to take in what was happening since I had 2 trade offers in play within the first four picks.
I didn't know how to even make a pick and I didn't know there was no time limit. So in shear panic, I had to process my thoughts, register my trade with D-Unit and find out how to post my pick.
Luckily everything thing went well and I figured out the process, but it was nerve racking.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:47 AM    (permalink
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I'll tell you one thing, when I got a call from RaiderNation last night at midnight, saying the draft was already underway, and the first 2 picks were in, I pissed my pants trying to take in what was happening since I had 2 trade offers in play within the first four picks.
I didn't know how to even make a pick and I didn't know there was no time limit. So in shear panic, I had to process my thoughts, register my trade with D-Unit and find out how to post my pick.
Luckily everything thing went well and I figured out the process, but it was nerve racking.
I can see you doing that...

You made a move you wanted, kudos for having the guts. This is a fun time of year!
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:53 AM    (permalink
scottyboy
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Best thing about forum mocks is how much QBs drop.
this.

Playing the forum members and their perceived boards is another fun game to play in this. Knowing the individual people and tendencies of posters
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BTW, if it's 3rd and 97... I'm throwing a screen pass to Brian Leonard and he will convert.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:54 AM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
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True, and all three of these guys can be versatile enough to do that in case they don't meet expectations.

I just don't think it's worth moving up to get one of these guys considering what has been asked to move up.

That's the beauty of these mock drafts, much like real life, all it takes is one GM who wants to make the deal to move up...
I moved up because I truly believe, these 3 OT's are the best talent in the draft and were pushed up by skill not hype. I don't care that it doesn't happen often, it did happen this year and that is all I care about.

Clady was taken high in a draft year where they were a # of LT's competing to be high picks, but I guess Denver was stupid for taking one, by your standard he should have flopped, or just maybe, solid GM's know exactly what they are doing and perhaps you don't.
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:56 AM    (permalink
Robcards
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Did the raiders/lion trade not get finalized? I thought joeckel was sent to Detroit and Oakland's pick was in. What did I miss?
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:57 AM    (permalink
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Where's D-Unit at? Draft is suppose to start in 3 minutes
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:58 AM    (permalink
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Did the raiders/lion trade not get finalized? I thought joeckel was sent to Detroit and Oakland's pick was in. What did I miss?
Still waiting on D-Unit to approve
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:59 AM    (permalink
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Hopefully this draft can start moving. I should be around for a couple hours so it would be nice to get my first round pics in and not have to do them on my phone.
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