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Old 02-25-2014, 10:23 AM    (permalink
Nastradamus
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Faster Nicks or Bowe is still an elite or borderline elite WR in the league
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Old 02-26-2014, 01:19 AM    (permalink
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Faster Nicks or Bowe is still an elite or borderline elite WR in the league
Sorry, that was faster Bowe... or Nicks, but yes, I do agree. And I think he has that level of talent. However, as prospects, guys like Julio and Dre were in a league of their own, and having seen them play, are still kind of in a league of their own. He's really not that similar to them in measurables or playstyle, but that's not to say he can't produce at a very high level. I was just saying people were getting a little crazy there, anointing him the next big thing.

Plus, I'm slowly, sadly coming to the realization that he may go to the Bills, Fins, or Pats, so I'd rather not think about how great he will be.
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Old 02-26-2014, 02:10 AM    (permalink
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More like faster Rueben Randle.
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Old 02-26-2014, 08:12 AM    (permalink
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Sorry, that was faster Bowe... or Nicks, but yes, I do agree. And I think he has that level of talent. However, as prospects, guys like Julio and Dre were in a league of their own, and having seen them play, are still kind of in a league of their own. He's really not that similar to them in measurables or playstyle, but that's not to say he can't produce at a very high level. I was just saying people were getting a little crazy there, anointing him the next big thing.

Plus, I'm slowly, sadly coming to the realization that he may go to the Bills, Fins, or Pats, so I'd rather not think about how great he will be.
Moncrief's combine stats are very similar to those of Jones and Johnson. He had the same broad and Johnson, a better vert than either, and was a little better than Johnson in the 40 (factoring in that Johnson got the same number but at his Pro Day) but not quite as good as Jones in the 40. So when you say they're not that similar in terms of measurables, I don't know from where you're drawing that conclusion.
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Old 02-26-2014, 12:18 PM    (permalink
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Moncrief's combine stats are very similar to those of Jones and Johnson. He had the same broad and Johnson, a better vert than either, and was a little better than Johnson in the 40 (factoring in that Johnson got the same number but at his Pro Day) but not quite as good as Jones in the 40. So when you say they're not that similar in terms of measurables, I don't know from where you're drawing that conclusion.
Measurables is probably the wrong word. It's more of just the eyeball test. But my backing for that is, well, just my eyes, so take it with a grain of salt. He just doesn't seem to use that size and athleticism in the same way they do, but that's just me. I'm not really trying to knock him anyway though so I'll just drop this. lol
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Old 02-26-2014, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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Measurables is probably the wrong word. It's more of just the eyeball test. But my backing for that is, well, just my eyes, so take it with a grain of salt. He just doesn't seem to use that size and athleticism in the same way they do, but that's just me. I'm not really trying to knock him anyway though so I'll just drop this. lol
I actually saw the same thing when I watched him a bit. Didn't really look like he was put in a whole lot of jump ball situations, though obviously as pointed out he's got the measurables to be a terror there as well. But those contested jump ball catches don't seem to be a big part of his game. He's more a monster after the catch.

Perhaps Don Vito can shed a little light on that one since he knows far more about Moncrief and Ole Miss in general than I do. Just something he wasn't asked to do as a part of their offense/due to quarterback play or is it more of a ball skills or lack of comfort in going up to get the ball issue? I did see at least one impressive leaping grab, but not sure it was in a contested situation.
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Old 02-26-2014, 03:41 PM    (permalink
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I actually saw the same thing when I watched him a bit. Didn't really look like he was put in a whole lot of jump ball situations, though obviously as pointed out he's got the measurables to be a terror there as well. But those contested jump ball catches don't seem to be a big part of his game. He's more a monster after the catch.

Perhaps Don Vito can shed a little light on that one since he knows far more about Moncrief and Ole Miss in general than I do. Just something he wasn't asked to do as a part of their offense/due to quarterback play or is it more of a ball skills or lack of comfort in going up to get the ball issue? I did see at least one impressive leaping grab, but not sure it was in a contested situation.
I know it is a lame excuse because we've heard it a million times (Calvin Johnson/Reggie Ball), but Moncrief was held back a bit by his QB play. Bo Wallace can manage the game enough to keep the offense going, but he is very erratic when we need to throw down the field to win. His numbers aren't completely terrible, but if you watch Ole Miss tape you will see Wallace missing guys badly. When you couple that with the fact that Moncrief was THE guy that SEC defenses were planning to stop, it sheds a little light on why he didn't have an absolute monster season while at Ole Miss.

I will say that this past season was not what people expected out of Moncrief. A lot of that was due to what I already mentioned, that Wallace was often times all over the place and that teams were trying to eliminate Moncrief and let other people beat them. We also had more balance on offense this season which gave him far fewer opportunities.

The big thing with Moncrief is that he was not asked to be a jump guy or a deep threat at Ole Miss. He had to run a lot of very precise routes with a quarterback who was hardly precise in getting the ball there. It is tough to see that on film sometimes. I am not a scout by any stretch of the imagination, but everyone who has seen Ole Miss play knows that Wallace was the guy who prevented Moncrief from having monster seasons. I like Bo, he plays hard and is better than a lot of guys we have had in the past, but he was maddeningly inconsistent. Watch games like LSU and Mississippi State in 2012 and you will see what Moncrief is capable of. He went off against Auburn this year too.

My take on Moncrief is this, he was the best player for Ole Miss since he stepped on the field as a true freshman. Thanks to Houston Nutt he had to play on some of the most talent-barren teams we have ever fielded. Everyone knew he was the guy that had to be stopped, and he still put up some damn good numbers while having to run a full route tree with shotty QB play. He is 6-2.5, 221, has 4.4 speed, and can jump through the roof. His best football is ahead of him, and I really don't know what more he could have done given his situation at Ole Miss. With my homer glasses off I see a potential NFL star.

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Old 02-26-2014, 04:59 PM    (permalink
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Thanks for the response. As a brief aside, is Wallace the kind of quarterback who's more than happy to spread the ball around? One of the interesting statistical things I've seen is that percentage share of a team's passing offense (both yardage and TD's) is a pretty good indicator of WR success at the next level (around 40% and up is really the target). The other two that had some correlation are age (younger the better) and weight (heavier the better).

What's interesting is that Moncrief doesn't really show all that well by this statistic/metric, whatever you want to call it - Ole Miss definitely spread the ball around. He comes in pretty neatly around 25% which is really quite low. Guys like Calvin Johnson and even moreso for Georgia Tech Demaryius Thomas had a ridiculous percentage of their team's receiving yardage and touchdowns. In this year's draft Jordan Matthews falls into that boat, Paul Richardson is another one.

So while Moncrief's numbers aren't eye popping, they're even low relative to what his offense put up for a top end receiver. Which is the one thing that's interesting even beyond the Bo Wallace argument. Obviously stats aren't the be all end all and there are other factors at work (like Wallace missing him, I saw that LSU game). But for a guy as talented as Moncrief that was something I wondered about. Other guys in similar situations have still carried their passing games a little more than Moncrief did.
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Old 02-26-2014, 05:17 PM    (permalink
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You are right, I started getting into that a couple of times but I didn't fully explain my point. I should have done a better job with that. When I was mentioning that "we also had more balance on offense this season which gave him far fewer opportunities", I meant to join that point with the fact that Wallace "is very erratic when we need to throw down the field."

We made a point to develop the short-intermediate passing game as well as becoming better at running the ball to put Wallace in the best position to run the offense. You can call it catering to his strengths or masking his weaknesses, either would be correct. We did get a lot better at running the ball, Wallace was solid tucking the ball and Jeff Scott had a breakout year. A couple of other guys contributed too.

As far as the short-intermediate passing game goes, true freshmen Laquon Treadwell and Evan Engram were huge there. They took a ton of Moncrief's targets away, and we needed that given all the attention he received. Engram is a move tight end who worked the middle of the field, think Jordan Reed. Laquon Treadwell is a freak of nature who rarely ran a route that went beyond 10 yards. Doesn't make much sense right? On the surface, no it does not. But a lot of that can be attributed to how conservative Freeze was in the passing game because of Wallace's tendency to give the ball away. We were more balls to the wall in 2012, and I think Bo led the NCAA in picks that year. This year we played it closer to the vest and made a commitment to having a safer passing offense and spreading the ball around short more rather than going for the home run with Moncrief half the time. That is reflected in Moncrief's stats, Wallace's stats, and our offensive stats as a whole.

I was not trying to have an Ole Miss rant, just trying to shed a little light on why the stats might not have been what people expected this year. Also not just trying to say "Bo WaLlAce suckszzz", so take it for what it's worth.
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Old 02-26-2014, 05:50 PM    (permalink
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Awesome insight - much more than I'd get by watching cutups of Moncrief alone. Thanks.
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Old 02-26-2014, 08:45 PM    (permalink
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Thanks for the response. As a brief aside, is Wallace the kind of quarterback who's more than happy to spread the ball around? One of the interesting statistical things I've seen is that percentage share of a team's passing offense (both yardage and TD's) is a pretty good indicator of WR success at the next level (around 40% and up is really the target). The other two that had some correlation are age (younger the better) and weight (heavier the better).

What's interesting is that Moncrief doesn't really show all that well by this statistic/metric, whatever you want to call it - Ole Miss definitely spread the ball around. He comes in pretty neatly around 25% which is really quite low. Guys like Calvin Johnson and even moreso for Georgia Tech Demaryius Thomas had a ridiculous percentage of their team's receiving yardage and touchdowns. In this year's draft Jordan Matthews falls into that boat, Paul Richardson is another one.

So while Moncrief's numbers aren't eye popping, they're even low relative to what his offense put up for a top end receiver. Which is the one thing that's interesting even beyond the Bo Wallace argument. Obviously stats aren't the be all end all and there are other factors at work (like Wallace missing him, I saw that LSU game). But for a guy as talented as Moncrief that was something I wondered about. Other guys in similar situations have still carried their passing games a little more than Moncrief did.
Don Vito has already done a great job, but I wanted to point out that the target % for Johnson and Thomas would be abnormally high, because of that style of offense. Georgia Tech rarely threw the ball, and when they did, it was off play action and usually down the field. It's not hyperbole to say that Moncrief could have easily racked up 300 yards against LSU - if not for the misses by Wallace.
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Old 02-28-2014, 06:36 PM    (permalink
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Don Vito has already done a great job, but I wanted to point out that the target % for Johnson and Thomas would be abnormally high, because of that style of offense. Georgia Tech rarely threw the ball, and when they did, it was off play action and usually down the field. It's not hyperbole to say that Moncrief could have easily racked up 300 yards against LSU - if not for the misses by Wallace.
Yeah of course the GT style of offense is different, those were just the first two names that came to mind. Thomas' percentage of their passing offense his last year at GT in particular was abnormally high. The reason I was interested in Moncrief in particular is that his percentage of Ole Miss's offense relative to other top prospects this year is really quite low.

Obviously stats don't tell the whole story, but this one is kind of nice in that you're able to see to what extent a wideout was the guy in college. Top tier NFL prospects at WR are going to get their fair share of attention from defenses, and it makes sense that if you've got a guy who's able to produce despite that heavy attention then you feel a little better about his ability to do so at the next level.

Really run heavy offenses are obviously going to change results, and that's one of a number of reasons why the particular statistic (like any statistic) isn't the only thing to look at when analyzing a prospect. But it's a nice simplistic way to adjust stats for QB play, how often the team throws the ball, etc - and allow to continue digging from there (which is part of why I was asking about Wallace, Ole Miss's offense, etc).
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Old 04-17-2014, 07:20 PM    (permalink
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Just watched 5 games of this guy. Some of his best production games.

He is not worth a top-3 round pick in this class. Doesn't know how to play WR yet, way below average hands (counted 10 drops or misplays), poor instincts/football IQ, not very tough, not a pro RAC threat.

Worth a draft pick as a developmental guy but I highly doubt someone takes him in the 2nd round as some are predicting. 3rd is too rich for me also.
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Old 04-18-2014, 08:56 AM    (permalink
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I think hes better than you are giving him credit for, bo wallace is ******* terrible.

Also, hes pretty tough...not afraid to stick his nose in there and block
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Old 04-18-2014, 09:29 AM    (permalink
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Not a pro RAC threat??

You should explain that more. One of the best things Moncrief does is catch the football and run away from defenders.
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Old 04-18-2014, 09:34 AM    (permalink
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Not a pro RAC threat??

You should explain that more. One of the best things Moncrief does is catch the football and run away from defenders.
I agree. Ask Eric Reid how he feels about Moncrief as a RAC threat. He got a good look at the back of his jersey.
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Old 04-18-2014, 10:07 AM    (permalink
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Just watched 5 games of this guy. Some of his best production games.

He is not worth a top-3 round pick in this class. Doesn't know how to play WR yet, way below average hands (counted 10 drops or misplays), poor instincts/football IQ, not very tough, not a pro RAC threat.

Worth a draft pick as a developmental guy but I highly doubt someone takes him in the 2nd round as some are predicting. 3rd is too rich for me also.
Don't know what you were watching. If you don't want to say he doesn't have elite hands yet fine, his hands are not terrible by any means but he is not a vacuum yet. Don't know how you could question his toughness, don't know how you could say he won't be a YAC threat, and don't know how you could say he doesn't know how to play football. You will learn.
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Old 04-18-2014, 12:26 PM    (permalink
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He's not very physical, especially for his size.

Yes, he can run past people when they take bad angles like Reid did on that play. That play shows his speed and Reid's bad angle - not RAC ability. He's fast. Anybody with speed can run past people. That's not RAC. I saw him break one tackle (after a hitch and the ARK DB dove at his ankles - he made a nice subtle move) and he gets the ball a lot.

Also, when he gets the ball on screens he's very hesitant and dances. He's super quick and athletic but he's simply not a very instinctive runner.

Football IQ = doesn't work back to the football, doesn't follow any scramble rules, doesn't run routes with any technique.

He's a terrific athlete, but he's got a lonnnnnng way to go to play WR in the NFL. He's going to have to learn how to play the position. The QB play limits him, but it also may have stunted his growth in a way.

I liked the Miss. State game, he hit a post and crossed Banks' face, made him look silly. Not really sure who had MOF.

Hands and route-running are below average in terms of draft prospects. That's simply not a good combination. He double-catches everything, fights the ball, body-catches, drops passes, doesn't go up to get it. It's literally every bad sign on a WR prospect.

And he doesn't get separation other than DBs sleeping and he runs by them. They didn't even ask him to run routes. He just ran hitches and screens and by people.

If I have starter's hopes for a raw prospect with ideal athleticism, I want him to have good hands, physicality, instincts, route-running ability. He only flashes those things.
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Old 04-18-2014, 12:36 PM    (permalink
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You just described cordarrelle patterson too, and hes done alright for himself.

Theres ways to get raw players involved, hes not a lonnngggggggg way
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Old 04-18-2014, 12:45 PM    (permalink
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Patterson was electric with the ball in his hands, had KR value that translated immediately, and had better hands.
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Old 04-18-2014, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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Moncrief reminds me a lot of a thicker Justin Hunter. A fine prospect, and a potential #1 receiver, but in a class with so many talented receivers I don't feel like he stands out the same way some here do. The guy has a long way to go to really understand the wide receiver position. There is going to be a very steep learning curve.
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Old 04-18-2014, 11:37 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
He's not very physical, especially for his size.
That's one thing I will highly disagree with. The other stuff is sort of subjective and can see where you're coming from. However, of the top 15 receivers, I'd say he's top 3 in physicality. The nastiness of his game is something that I love. I'd say the only one unquestionably above him in that regard would be Evans.
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Old 04-18-2014, 11:48 PM    (permalink
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He blocks, but he relies on his speed and has to focus so hard on catching the ball that he doesn't attack. He's just not very aggressive going to the football or after the catch. He doesn't have that RAC RB ability/mentality that you want from a stud athlete WR.

And I don't really like his demeanor. It must be extremely frustrating to play with a bad QB, but he quits on routes too early, and I know this is unfair but a STARTLING number of throws to him end up picked, tipped, or just something bad happening. It's probably not his fault most times, but you have to wonder why it happens so much - it's a team sport. I know the easy answer is Bo Wallace sucks, but I really can't remember watching a WR with poor QB play having so many passes resulting in bad things. He's tipping his routes or just not running them well enough. But yes, Bo Wallace does suck.

The top two traits I value in WR prospects are hands and route-running. Moncrief is suspect in both areas.

He's actually a good fit for Seattle, but I don't think they take him at 64. Although they value athleticism so much and he's big which is probably what they're looking for. And I actually think the top 10ish WRs are going to go off the board very early, before 64 - so maybe he's the best prospect there. Plus he can sit and learn in year one. I think he might be there for their 4th round pick.
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Old 05-10-2014, 03:33 AM    (permalink
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so much for the 1st round, and the 2nd lol like I said over and over on the boards..he wasn't going anywhere near that high :)
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Old 05-10-2014, 10:56 AM    (permalink
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I was never a fan, too much of a body catcher for me. You can get away with it in college, but in the pros, it just doesn't work.
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