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Old 05-17-2013, 11:02 PM    (permalink
J-Mike88
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Originally Posted by Ness View Post
Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Drew Brees are all headed to Canton.

The only person I don't think is a lock at this point 100% is Rodgers because he has had only 4 fantastic years.
I've argued here that Rodgers is NOT a lock because he hasn't done enough to get in yet. And Eli has come up huge both times (2007 & 2011) to win two rings, one more than Peyton and Rodgers. NYG win none of those without Eli, certainly.

But you say Rodgers has only had 4 fantastic seasons.
How many fantastic seasons has Eli had, who you call in already?


Eli has only 2 seasons with over a 89.9 passer rating.
Those were 92.9 in 2011 & 93.1 in 2009.

The only time he's thrown more than 29 TD's in any season was in 2010 when he threw 31 TDs. Against 25 Ints!
That was the season they just missed making the playoffs, losing out to Philly. His 25 Ints didn't help.

Passing stats don't tell the whole story though.
Eli has added 4 career rushing TD's as well, on a total of 395 career rushing yards.
Remember Eli has been starting since midway thru 2004.

THAT is Eli's most remarkable thing IMO, no missed starts since that rookie year in 2004. He's indestructible, a modern-day Farve.

Nobody needs to be reminded of Rodgers work, but Ness you say Rodgers only has had 4.... he's only started 5 seasons and his first (his worst statistically) was still better than Eli's best.
Rodgers' first season starting in 2008 he had 28 TDs to 13 Ints, for a passer rating of 93.8. Again, that's better than Eli's best season in 2009 when he had 27/14.

Rodgers has chipped in 1,442 rushing yards, and 18 rushing TD's.

Career-wise:
211/144 (+67) TD/Int is Eli's body of work passing.
171/46 (+125) TD/Int is Rodgers body of work passing. In 3 1/2 less seasons playing.

In the 2 playoff runs though, Eli has been super clutch. **** him.
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Old 05-18-2013, 02:40 AM    (permalink
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The trouble is that with the new rules completely favouring the passing game, a huge # of QB's are bound to put up tremendous career #'s along with WR's, leaving past generations of QB's and WR's looking like their stats don't deserve to have put them in the HOF.

The game of Pro Football has changed so much in the past 10 years, that it has now become practically impossible to compare in any way, past decades to the current game. It's apples and oranges with very little in common.
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Old 05-18-2013, 05:33 AM    (permalink
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I've argued here that Rodgers is NOT a lock because he hasn't done enough to get in yet. And Eli has come up huge both times (2007 & 2011) to win two rings, one more than Peyton and Rodgers. NYG win none of those without Eli, certainly.

But you say Rodgers has only had 4 fantastic seasons.
How many fantastic seasons has Eli had, who you call in already?


Eli has only 2 seasons with over a 89.9 passer rating.
Those were 92.9 in 2011 & 93.1 in 2009.

The only time he's thrown more than 29 TD's in any season was in 2010 when he threw 31 TDs. Against 25 Ints!
That was the season they just missed making the playoffs, losing out to Philly. His 25 Ints didn't help.

Passing stats don't tell the whole story though.
Eli has added 4 career rushing TD's as well, on a total of 395 career rushing yards.
Remember Eli has been starting since midway thru 2004.

THAT is Eli's most remarkable thing IMO, no missed starts since that rookie year in 2004. He's indestructible, a modern-day Farve.

Nobody needs to be reminded of Rodgers work, but Ness you say Rodgers only has had 4.... he's only started 5 seasons and his first (his worst statistically) was still better than Eli's best.
Rodgers' first season starting in 2008 he had 28 TDs to 13 Ints, for a passer rating of 93.8. Again, that's better than Eli's best season in 2009 when he had 27/14.

Rodgers has chipped in 1,442 rushing yards, and 18 rushing TD's.

Career-wise:
211/144 (+67) TD/Int is Eli's body of work passing.
171/46 (+125) TD/Int is Rodgers body of work passing. In 3 1/2 less seasons playing.

In the 2 playoff runs though, Eli has been super clutch. **** him.
He has one more ring though. If Aaron Rodgers had one more ring at this point I'd say he was a lock. Eli has had 5 decent/good seasons along with two rings. I think he's in.
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Old 05-18-2013, 06:36 AM    (permalink
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I mean if Eli Manning gets in, Alex Smith has to get in :P
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Old 05-18-2013, 08:20 AM    (permalink
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I don't believe in being clutch or in choking. I think these types of things are attributable to coaching and randomness.
Pretty much this. People always talk about how clutch guys like Eli, Ben, and Brady are, but damn they've had a lot of dumb luck along the way. Brady got the Tuck rule, Eli could have very easily thrown 3 interceptions on his final drive against NE, and Ben got a lot of favorable calls in his SB against the Seahawks. Basically if you're good and you play for long enough your luck and "choking" will even themselves out.
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Old 05-18-2013, 09:27 AM    (permalink
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If you're good you may not win all the time, that's not the same as choking.
Peyton has had critical games in the playoffs where he showed up small. It wasn't a situation where he played well and the Colts still lost.

The late INT he threw against the Saints wasn't bad luck, that was a bad read.
The INT he threw against the Ravens wasn't bad luck, another bad read.

To me that's choking. Not bad luck.

When Warner lost the SB to the Steelers, he didn't choke. The Cards just got beat and gave up an inexplicable TD return to James Harrison.

From (my faulty) memory I disagree that Eli could have had 3 INTs against the Pats in his last drive.

The reason people call Peyton a choker is because he had the same issues at Tennessee when he couldn't beat the Gators.

The minute Peyton graduated, an inferior QB in Tee Martin led basically the same Vols squad to the NC.

Peyton's an alltime great, but I think most fans acknowledge he tends to play tight in big games.

Playing clutch is a real skillset. Calling it 'luck' dismisses how unique it is for a player to execute at a high level late in games, or sometimes for an entire game.
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Old 05-18-2013, 09:45 AM    (permalink
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There is luck involved in all sports. From the bounce of a bball, puck, tennis ball, baseball and football. Fans need to know that from the get go. There is no perfect vacuum in which the variables are mixing in. There is such thing as being clutch and choking. A player who when the chips are down who religiously puts his team in a chance to win vs a player who can't do this, but then makes costly mistakes at that important juncture.

That intangible of being clutch or being a choker is there in every sport. This is not a new intangible quality.
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Old 05-18-2013, 10:03 AM    (permalink
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There is such thing as being clutch and choking.
No doubt about it.
There is clutch, and there is choke.
We've all seen it.

I remember choking in HS tennis. I felt it.
Later, when I was better and had ultimate confidence, I relished those tight moments. And I played better, clutcher.

Favre in the playoffs: UnClutch.
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Old 05-18-2013, 10:23 AM    (permalink
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I don't believe in being clutch or in choking. I think these types of things are attributable to coaching and randomness.
Tony Romo doesn't choke in big games? Maybe his deal with the devil expired then.
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Old 05-18-2013, 10:27 AM    (permalink
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Tony Romo doesn't choke in big games? Maybe his deal with the devil expired then.
To be fair, that implies he even shows up for big games.
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Old 05-18-2013, 10:29 AM    (permalink
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No doubt about it.
There is clutch, and there is choke.
We've all seen it.

I remember choking in HS tennis. I felt it.
Later, when I was better and had ultimate confidence, I relished those tight moments. And I played better, clutcher.

Favre in the playoffs: UnClutch.
That's an intangible you scout for and hope that works your way when it happens. You want a QB, or in any sport, that athlete, on the biggest stage to play his best. From Michael Jordan, who I grew up watching, to guys like Reggie Jackson, Mr. October himself.

When the game is on the line, on the biggest stage, play your best and win. Sure there is luck, just like anything and everything in life. But if it's a tie breaker on the line for the US open, and Sampras was serving, you better watch it because he could keep acing you.

The way he did that in key moments was uncanny. Conversely, Agassi used to make insane returns at key moments. That's what you want in any sport. You want that intangible as a human in life. At a key moment do your best. Whether it's taking an exam in school or being a key 1st responder to a scene. In a pressure moment, be clutch, and not freeze up and choke.
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Old 05-18-2013, 11:06 AM    (permalink
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Playing clutch is a real skillset. Calling it 'luck' dismisses how unique it is for a player to execute at a high level late in games, or sometimes for an entire game.
I don't know I think there are just levels of choke and then there are guys who just don't choke. I mean luck has a great deal to do with "clutch" I mean if Tyree drops the ball in that famous super bowl catch is and the Giants subsequently lose the game is he still considered "clutch"?
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Old 05-18-2013, 11:07 AM    (permalink
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To be fair, that implies he even shows up for big games.
Oh there are some he shows up for, as in he plays well for a good amount of the contest, until the final drive when he throws an interception and give the other team an opportunity to seal the deal. Even if he plays terrible from the beginning, that would still be choking. Bottom line is that he doesn't rise to the occasion the majority of the time and wins when it matters least.
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Old 05-18-2013, 11:10 AM    (permalink
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I don't know I think there are just levels of choke and then there are guys who just don't choke. I mean luck has a great deal to do with "clutch" I mean if Tyree drops the ball in that famous super bowl catch is and the Giants subsequently lose the game is he still considered "clutch"?
Right, but let's just look at that game with Eli Manning if we're talking him. He has been very good in the 4th quarter in many other games. There are a lot of guys that don't have their passes intercepted at certain times, but no one remembers that because they're still terrible players and they'll throw a pick eventually anyway and/or fumble. If you discount luck, good or bad, the player that remains still has a tendency to make their fair share of good decisions and a tendency to not make their fair amount of good decisions.
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Old 05-18-2013, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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I don't see how people can still really question clutchness. I agree that theoretically if a player played for long enough it should level out, but I've seen too many athletes in too many different sports show too high of a standard in "big moments" for their entire careers to not believe in clutchness. Eli's not clutch just because of our runs, eli's been clutch since his very first win when he lead a game winning drive to get us the W as the game died. And ever since then Eli's performances late in games, or late in the first half, have blown his play during the rest of the game away. Now part of that is that our vertical passing game combines very well with eli's skillset, the hurry up, and facing more prevent type defenses, which helps to explain why Eli's always flourish in "clutch" moments, but he's still done it and he's still clutch even if we can give reasons as to why that is.
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Old 05-18-2013, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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If you're good you may not win all the time, that's not the same as choking.
Peyton has had critical games in the playoffs where he showed up small. It wasn't a situation where he played well and the Colts still lost.

The late INT he threw against the Saints wasn't bad luck, that was a bad read.
The INT he threw against the Ravens wasn't bad luck, another bad read.

To me that's choking. Not bad luck.

When Warner lost the SB to the Steelers, he didn't choke. The Cards just got beat and gave up an inexplicable TD return to James Harrison.

From (my faulty) memory I disagree that Eli could have had 3 INTs against the Pats in his last drive.

The reason people call Peyton a choker is because he had the same issues at Tennessee when he couldn't beat the Gators.

The minute Peyton graduated, an inferior QB in Tee Martin led basically the same Vols squad to the NC.

Peyton's an alltime great, but I think most fans acknowledge he tends to play tight in big games.

Playing clutch is a real skillset. Calling it 'luck' dismisses how unique it is for a player to execute at a high level late in games, or sometimes for an entire game.
See, you're ignoring luck, which is a part of every single sports game out there. Peyton's first interception he threw that was returned for a touchdown against Baltimore, could have easily been called defensive pass interference. Completely negates that interception and TD for Baltimore, and momentum gained from Baltimore.
And yeah, go ahead and say Peyton choked, when he put the team in position to win. The defense let up a huge hail mary pass that should never have happened, and then gave up some costly penalties to put Baltimore in better field position.

Eli Manning got incredibly lucky against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. The David Tyree catch? That was very lucky he held on and caught that.
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Old 05-18-2013, 01:12 PM    (permalink
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Eli also got out of like a million sacks on that play as well, so it wasn't just luck. To this day, that was the most incredile play Ive ever seen in the NFL.
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Old 05-18-2013, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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Eli also got out of like a million sacks on that play as well, so it wasn't just luck. To this day, that was the most incredile play Ive ever seen in the NFL.
I still don't understand how Eli spun out of that sack, even at regular speed it looks like he's doing it in slow motion with 4 mammoths all around him. As for the luck aspect, Eli has had just as much bad luck as good, so attributing his years of clutch play to simple luck is silly.
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Old 05-23-2013, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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The problem with saying winning two SuperBowls means you are a Hall Of Famer is it opens the door for average players on good teams to make it. If Flacco wins another is he in in just because he won two? What if Trent Dilfer or Mark Rypien had won another Super Bowl do put them in cause they won two? Yes winning is important in evaluating a QB but it is just one part you have take in everything in their career including regular season.
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Old 05-23-2013, 06:24 PM    (permalink
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Eli also got out of like a million sacks on that play as well, so it wasn't just luck. To this day, that was the most incredile play Ive ever seen in the NFL.
Eli did not play great in either Super Bowl he played in. These are his stats

2007 Super Bowl stats 2 TD's 1 int 255 yards
2012 Super Bowl stats 1 TD 0 int 296 yards

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Old 05-23-2013, 08:07 PM    (permalink
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Eli did not play great in either Super Bowl he played in. These are his stats

2007 Super Bowl stats 2 TD's 1 int 255 yards
2012 Super Bowl stats 1 TD 0 int 296 yards
This is a great way to prove the point that stats can be misleading. Eli played amazingly in both Super Bowls, all you had to do was watch.
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Old 05-31-2013, 12:28 AM    (permalink
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This is a great way to prove the point that stats can be misleading. Eli played amazingly in both Super Bowls, all you had to do was watch.
How are the stats I showed misleading and yes I watched both games. He would never have won if his receivers bailed him out with incredible catches.
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Old 05-31-2013, 12:38 AM    (permalink
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How are the stats I showed misleading and yes I watched both games. He would never have won if his receivers bailed him out with incredible catches.
The ball to Manningham was money.
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Old 05-31-2013, 12:42 AM    (permalink
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Good QBs put their WRs in a position to make great catches.
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Old 05-31-2013, 12:50 AM    (permalink
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How are the stats I showed misleading and yes I watched both games. He would never have won if his receivers bailed him out with incredible catches.
A player could have those stats and have a good game. That's why it's misleading. Fantasy football has made this confusing for some folks.
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