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Old 03-19-2014, 12:19 PM    (permalink
gpngc
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I wish I knew how to cut and paste youtube clips into gifs or whatever. In two or three years that's going to be so easy and it's going to make these discussions way better.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:24 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by fredder View Post
Sure, but his deep ball accuracy is still awful and his mechanics are still very inconsistent. Why hasn't he improved in these areas over the last year and half?

I've been a huge Bridgewater supporter but I'm not going to be oblivious to his red flags even if they aren't necessarily major ones.
I agree, relying on college stats to suggest they will relate to success as a pro, is a waste of time at this point in the draft process. He's going to have to show pro teams in his individual workouts that it was just an off day, that he isn't as bad as he looked at his pro day. Actually, right now, I don't think it sent him way down draft boards, but he will have to really impress from here on it or it could.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:29 PM    (permalink
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It's so frustrating being unable to point out flaws in a prospect without people freaking out about it. I really hope that I haven't been like that this year but I'm sure I probably was without realizing it.

I felt the need to mention that I still had Teddy as my #1 QB and that I still liked him despite my concerns but that didn't help. People still ignored the majority of my post and just saw what they wanted to see, which was me "attacking" a prospect they like(who I just so happen to be one of the biggest supporters of). This is still the unfortunate reality of discussions like this.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:30 PM    (permalink
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I actually think standard college stats are underused. They are a small part of the process.

If you can't accumulate stats at the college level, how will you at the pro level? If you can't uplift the play of your teammates to the point of getting results in college, how the hell will you when things get tougher?

I can't think of a single successful pro QB who didn't have stellar college stats besides Jay Cutler and the ultimate outlier of Brady (and Cutler's career has been only somewhat successful really).

Hm. Now I'm thinking about it. Great college numbers actually seem like a pre-req rather than a predictor.

In other words, if you have great college numbers that doesn't mean pro success. But without great college numbers you pretty much won't attain pro success.

Are there any examples that disprove this?

EDIT: Changed can't to won't.

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Old 03-19-2014, 12:37 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
I actually think standard college stats are underused. They are a small part of the process.

If you can't accumulate stats at the college level, how will you at the pro level? If you can't uplift the play of your teammates to the point of getting results in college, how the hell will you when things get tougher?

I can't think of a single successful pro QB who didn't have stellar college stats besides Jay Cutler and the ultimate outlier of Brady (and Cutler's career has been only somewhat successful really).

Hm. Now I'm thinking about it. Great college numbers actually seem like a pre-req rather than a predictor.

In other words, if you have great college numbers that doesn't mean pro success. But without great college numbers you pretty much can't attain pro success.

Are there any examples that disprove this?
Matt Cassel has had a more successful pro career than college career ;)
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
I actually think standard college stats are underused. They are a small part of the process.

If you can't accumulate stats at the college level, how will you at the pro level? If you can't uplift the play of your teammates to the point of getting results in college, how the hell will you when things get tougher?

I can't think of a single successful pro QB who didn't have stellar college stats besides Jay Cutler and the ultimate outlier of Brady (and Cutler's career has been only somewhat successful really).

Hm. Now I'm thinking about it. Great college numbers actually seem like a pre-req rather than a predictor.

In other words, if you have great college numbers that doesn't mean pro success. But without great college numbers you pretty much can't attain pro success.

Are there any examples that disprove this?
The trouble with stats is that, how do you use them to decide a prospects potential if far more successful college QB's with great stats failed miserably as pros, even if the successful ones have great stats as well. It kind of negates stats as a indicator of success. Yes, most pro QB's had great college stats although there were some whose accuracy was questioned at the time like Ryan and Stafford. I think it comes in pretty low in the importance area for pro scouts and GM's. It is just one of those givens that indicates who to look at, but in the end, won't add a whole lot to the overall ranking.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:42 PM    (permalink
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Matt Cassel has had a more successful pro career than college career ;)
A better example would be the guy he was an understudy for in New England.

Cassel hasn't done much in the pros besides playing one year with an absolutely stacked offense in NE.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:44 PM    (permalink
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A better example would be the guy he was an understudy for in New England.

Cassel hasn't done much in the pros besides playing one year with an absolutely stacked offense in NE.
It was a joke because Cassel never started a game in college........... .........

I'm well aware of Tom Brady and so is the guy who posed the question as he mentioned him already.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:46 PM    (permalink
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It was a joke because Cassel never started a game in college........... .........

I'm well aware of Tom Brady and so is the guy who posed the question as he mentioned him already.
Actually, Brady's stats were solid in college, his physical appearance cost him dearly.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:46 PM    (permalink
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The trouble with stats is that, how do you use them to decide a prospects potential if far more successful college QB's with great stats failed miserably as pros, even if the successful ones have great stats as well. It kind of negates stats as a indicator of success. Yes, most pro QB's had great college stats although there were some whose accuracy was questioned at the time like Ryan and Stafford. I think it comes in pretty low in the importance area for pro scouts and GM's. It is just one of those givens that indicates who to look at, but in the end, won't add a whole lot to the overall ranking.
I explained this. They are NOT an indicator of success, but rather a pre-requisite for success. There is a huge difference. I'm not here saying Timmy Chang = Peyton Manning because of his stats.

But if you use them as a pre-requisite, hmmm. I'm just thinking out loud here.

But Matt Ryan is a great counter-example to that idea.

I'm not trying to re-invent the wheel here, just had that thought.

EDIT: I've also gone completely off topic, which ruins threads when it takes away from discussing the actual player. My bad. Ignore this bs.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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I explained this. They are NOT an indicator of success, but rather a pre-requisite for success. There is a huge difference. I'm not here saying Timmy Chang = Peyton Manning because of his stats.

But if you use them as a pre-requisite, hmmm. I'm just thinking out loud here.

But Matt Ryan is a great counter-example to that idea.

I'm not trying to re-invent the wheel here, just had that thought.

EDIT: I've also gone completely off topic, which ruins threads when it takes away from discussing the actual player. My bad. Ignore this bs.
I think it is an interesting topic in this discussion, comes up a lot when talking about QB's and you opinion here, is pretty well right on.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
I explained this. They are NOT an indicator of success, but rather a pre-requisite for success. There is a huge difference. I'm not here saying Timmy Chang = Peyton Manning because of his stats.

But if you use them as a pre-requisite, hmmm. I'm just thinking out loud here.

But Matt Ryan is a great counter-example to that idea.

I'm not trying to re-invent the wheel here, just had that thought.

EDIT: I've also gone completely off topic, which ruins threads when it takes away from discussing the actual player. My bad. Ignore this bs.
I'm just going to make one last post regarding this.

There is a strong correlation between being mediocre in college and being mediocre in the pros. Matt Ryan is a good counter example but looking at the rest of the guys who were drafted in the 1st round despite mediocre college production we have

Josh Freeman
Christian Ponder
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Kyle Boller

These were the main names that stood out to me. I think the evidence is pretty strong that you shouldn't draft a QB who was mediocre in college and expect him to be anything more than mediocre in the pros.
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Old 03-19-2014, 01:08 PM    (permalink
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It was a joke because Cassel never started a game in college........... .........

I'm well aware of Tom Brady and so is the guy who posed the question as he mentioned him already.
I didn't really pay any attention to what else was said lol. Cassel did have a better pro career than college though so it's not like you were wrong by joking about that.
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Old 03-19-2014, 01:10 PM    (permalink
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I'm just going to make one last post regarding this.

There is a strong correlation between being mediocre in college and being mediocre in the pros. Matt Ryan is a good counter example but looking at the rest of the guys who were drafted in the 1st round despite mediocre college production we have

Josh Freeman
Christian Ponder
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Kyle Boller

These were the main names that stood out to me. I think the evidence is pretty strong that you shouldn't draft a QB who was mediocre in college and expect him to be anything more than mediocre in the pros.
You forgot Manual, not the great college career.
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Old 03-19-2014, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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Yeah I wanted to ignore this past draft because I think it's a little too early. He's definitely looking like a guy who'll be added to that list though.
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Old 03-19-2014, 03:00 PM    (permalink
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You forgot Manual, not the great college career.
Manuel was pretty productive with a lot of starts in a pro style offense.
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Old 03-19-2014, 03:16 PM    (permalink
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After Bridgerwater's bad Pro Day I went back and watched his last two bowl game performances. I've come to the conclusion that his arm strength is a bigger limitation that I realized. It's going to need to improve. I honestly think his ceiling might be Alex Smith. He's a good player, but he's in that mold. Sam Bradford as well. His floor is probably a Christian Ponder type.

I think an NFL team is going to have to realize that he's going to need scheme and pieces around him to be a good player. He won't come in and turn a 4 win team into a 10 win team. He's not that type of player. I saw his vertical throws float and his throws outside the hashes seemed to be very, very average. He played with a lot of talent and had a good scheme in college. He ran a great offense, and that's the type of situation he's going to need to be in at the next level. He doesn't have a lot of potential, unless his arm strength improves (along with his frame). But that's not something you want to bet on.

I dropped him down my board, and I think Bortles has passed him because Bortles has more potential.
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Old 03-19-2014, 03:39 PM    (permalink
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Why did Alex Smith struggle in the pros?? Because he had to un-learn everything he was taught about playing QB from Urban Meyer at Utah.

Sam Bradford?? He played in a spread offense with some pro passing concepts, but injuries have set him back along with IMO struggling to pick up the pro game.

Teddy's floor is Christian Ponder?? Believe that when I see it.

Teddy had decent talent around him at Louisville, nothing special. Louisville isn't a team filled with 4 and 5 star players. The difference between a team like Maryland and Louisville IMO is the QB.

Bridgewater admits he threw with his upper body almost exclusively throughout his prep and college career; getting more torque and power into your throws by incorporating your lower body is one of the more adjustable changes a QB can make.
TB's not trying to make radical changes like recalibrating his throwing motion.

The WCO in college is not a 'QB friendly' scheme. It's the exact opposite.
3 and 5 step drops, throws coming out at the top of your drop thrown on timing routes before WRs come out of their breaks, full field progression reads..if it was 'easy' more teams would be running it.

TB was highly proficient running that offense because he's a talented QB.

Would a bit stronger arm help Bridgewater at the next level??

Sure. That's why he's working on making his throwing mechanics more efficient.

Again I just don't see some overthrows at a pro day equating to a bad performance. If his pro day was typical of his play during games, I'd be worried, but it really wasn't.
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Old 03-19-2014, 03:44 PM    (permalink
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Yeah Mike Mayock had a lot of really good points about Bridgewater's Pro Day.

He said that when he talked to people from NFL teams they said they were disappointed but that their main concern was poor lower body mechanics and that it was extremely fixable. I'm still a bit concerned because I used to say that and eventually I started thinking "If it's easily fixed then why hasn't it been fixed?". I'll say that NFL people know more about it than me though.

In terms of missing throws at the Pro Day Mayock said "You can go find tape of him making those throws in game." That's absolutely true and it's why I think it was mostly just a bad day in terms of his accuracy.
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Old 03-19-2014, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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After Bridgerwater's bad Pro Day I went back and watched his last two bowl game performances. I've come to the conclusion that his arm strength is a bigger limitation that I realized. It's going to need to improve. I honestly think his ceiling might be Alex Smith. He's a good player, but he's in that mold. Sam Bradford as well. His floor is probably a Christian Ponder type.

I think an NFL team is going to have to realize that he's going to need scheme and pieces around him to be a good player. He won't come in and turn a 4 win team into a 10 win team. He's not that type of player. I saw his vertical throws float and his throws outside the hashes seemed to be very, very average. He played with a lot of talent and had a good scheme in college. He ran a great offense, and that's the type of situation he's going to need to be in at the next level. He doesn't have a lot of potential, unless his arm strength improves (along with his frame). But that's not something you want to bet on.

I dropped him down my board, and I think Bortles has passed him because Bortles has more potential.
Yah, Alex Smith is pretty fair. I called him a more athletic AJ Mccarron and people acted like I was nuts a few months ago.
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Old 03-19-2014, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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Gil Brandt ‏@Gil_Brandt 9m
Talked to Teddy Bridgewater last night. Believes accuarcy issues at pro day were affected by decision to not wear gloves.
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In the Cincy game he changed or took off his gloves after missing some throws.

I don't think a 2nd pro day (with gloves) is that out of the question. At the very least I'd expect him to simply wear gloves for his private workouts.

Gloves were definitely a huge issue for him (probably mentally too). It explains why it was THAT bad. But I maintain that he had some real issues with the gloves on tape also.
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Old 03-19-2014, 04:04 PM    (permalink
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Why did Alex Smith struggle in the pros?? Because he had to un-learn everything he was taught about playing QB from Urban Meyer at Utah.

Sam Bradford?? He played in a spread offense with some pro passing concepts, but injuries have set him back along with IMO struggling to pick up the pro game.

Teddy's floor is Christian Ponder?? Believe that when I see it.

Teddy had decent talent around him at Louisville, nothing special. Louisville isn't a team filled with 4 and 5 star players. The difference between a team like Maryland and Louisville IMO is the QB.

Bridgewater admits he threw with his upper body almost exclusively throughout his prep and college career; getting more torque and power into your throws by incorporating your lower body is one of the more adjustable changes a QB can make.
TB's not trying to make radical changes like recalibrating his throwing motion.

The WCO in college is not a 'QB friendly' scheme. It's the exact opposite.
3 and 5 step drops, throws coming out at the top of your drop thrown on timing routes before WRs come out of their breaks, full field progression reads..if it was 'easy' more teams would be running it.

TB was highly proficient running that offense because he's a talented QB.

Would a bit stronger arm help Bridgewater at the next level??

Sure. That's why he's working on making his throwing mechanics more efficient.

Again I just don't see some overthrows at a pro day equating to a bad performance. If his pro day was typical of his play during games, I'd be worried, but it really wasn't.
That's not why Alex a Smith struggled in the pros. It had nothing to do with Urban Meyer. He was on a terrible team devoid of talent for years and constant changes in scheme on a yearly basis. Now that he's been surrounded by great talent for the last three years he has shown that he is a quality starting QB, but his physical limitations - average arm strength - prevent him from being a great QB.

I think Sam Bradford is going to be similar to Alex Smith. Surround him with talent and you will have a solid QB. But he is limited and he may never develop into that Top 5 caliber QB. I had Bradford as at a late first rounder in my final evaluation of him. I considered Alex Smith the same way, and Bridgewater has a similar grade.

Louisville is very talented, especially when compared to their competition, which was weak. They have a really good team, and yes, Bridgewater is a major part of that.

Here's my report on Bridgewater.

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Teddy Bridgewater: LOUISVILLE (QB)

Bridgewater runs such a smooth offense and he's so consistent that I really struggle to find anything in his game that he's lacking. He has solid accuracy, a great understanding of the game, consistently makes good decisions and throws a catchable football. He has a slender frame with fairly alarming weight issues. He will need to add weight and thicken his frame. Durability at the next level does become a legitimate concern. He's not an elite prospect because he doesn't have any elite physical tools. He's average-to-above-average in just about every category, but he doesn't blow you away in any given area. The word "clean" comes to mind.

I really like his ability to look off safeties, go through progressions and maneuver in the pocket. He has a very good base and quick feet that allows him to move up, move back, or side-to-side in the pocket while maintaining a good throwing platform. He's a well coached player. His arm strength is an area where you hope he can improve at the next level, because that is going to be his biggest limitation. Not his weight. He may struggle throwing outside the hashes and his vertical throws tend to float. Bridgewater isn't the type of player that is going to make plays outside of the design of the offense so he might be more dependent on scheme and talent level around him. A good prospect, but not great because he does have physical limitations.

Grade: Round 1
I've always considered him the best QB prospect in this draft until that Pro Day where his arm strength became a glaring issue for me.


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Yeah Mike Mayock had a lot of really good points about Bridgewater's Pro Day.

He said that when he talked to people from NFL teams they said they were disappointed but that their main concern was poor lower body mechanics and that it was extremely fixable. I'm still a bit concerned because I used to say that and eventually I started thinking "If it's easily fixed then why hasn't it been fixed?". I'll say that NFL people know more about it than me though.

In terms of missing throws at the Pro Day Mayock said "You can go find tape of him making those throws in game." That's absolutely true and it's why I think it was mostly just a bad day in terms of his accuracy.
I agree with that last sentence. Completely. His accuracy is a positive. I don't know why he was missing throws during his Pro Day and it didn't bother me at all, because I've seen him consistently make great touch passes on the move and showing great ball placement. It was - exclusively - his arm strength that bothered me. It's a bigger issue than I thought. I thought his arm strength was similar to Bortles... They're not even close (and Bortles does not have a cannon). Arm strength is a limitation for Bridgewater.
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Old 03-19-2014, 04:09 PM    (permalink
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In the Cincy game he changed or took off his gloves after missing some throws.

I don't think a 2nd pro day (with gloves) is that out of the question. At the very least I'd expect him to simply wear gloves for his private workouts.

Gloves were definitely a huge issue for him (probably mentally too). It explains why it was THAT bad. But I maintain that he had some real issues with the gloves on tape also.
I get this underlying feeling that somebody giving him advice, probably his agent, is a big reason for why his offseason has been so bad. Choosing not to at least run at the combine was incredibly dumb IMO. It just rubbed people the wrong way. The whole not wearing a glove thing makes me think that somebody told him that he should show NFL teams that he doesn't need them. Really it wasn't a big deal to anyone and probably just made him less comfortable at his pro day.

Basically every decision he's made this offseason has been bad and confusing.
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Old 03-19-2014, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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I get this underlying feeling that somebody giving him advice, probably his agent, is a big reason for why his offseason has been so bad. Choosing not to at least run at the combine was incredibly dumb IMO. It just rubbed people the wrong way. The whole not wearing a glove thing makes me think that somebody told him that he should show NFL teams that he doesn't need them. Really it wasn't a big deal to anyone and probably just made him less comfortable at his pro day.

Basically every decision he's made this offseason has been bad and confusing.
Seems like he's avoiding Oakland.
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Old 03-19-2014, 04:27 PM    (permalink
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Seems like he's avoiding Oakland.
In that case change the end of that last sentence to "genius and understandable".
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