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Old 10-07-2013, 10:53 PM    (permalink
Brodeur
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Originally Posted by nepg View Post
It was 1st & Goal from the 1 with 1 second left on the clock. Take the damn field goal.
No, you play the ******* odds and go for the touchdown. Every single book that isn't 50 years old and relying on antiquated ******** says to go for it, and the Falcons made the right call. What was wrong was that they ran up the middle with their midget back.
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Old 10-07-2013, 10:53 PM    (permalink
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One more thing I noticed. the Jets blitzed on almost every 3rd down call. You could see it coming a mile away...unless you were Mike Smith.
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Old 10-07-2013, 10:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by TonyGfortheTD View Post
Yes it is. My data that shows the Falcons lost would say otherwise.

You don't give up the points.
TonyGfortheTD,

Here is a crazy one for you. If the Falcons stay out of it they should send Tony Gonzalez home to KC for one last run with his former team.
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Old 10-07-2013, 10:56 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by TonyGfortheTD View Post
Yes it is. My data that shows the Falcons lost would say otherwise.

You don't give up the points.
If the Falcons kick the field goal, they lose 30-27.
If the Falcons go for it and don't make it, they lose 30-28.
If the Falcons go for it and do score, the score is 31-27 and the Falcons have to get a TD to win.

So whether they score or don't score, the end result is better than if they kick the field goal. It was 100% the right choice but it was the wrong play call.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 10-07-2013, 10:57 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Scotty D View Post
TonyGfortheTD,

Here is a crazy one for you. If the Falcons stay out of it they should send Tony Gonzalez home to KC for one last run with his former team.
It'd be the right thing to do for all parties if the compensation was right.

Would like to see it, but I think Falcons will try and chase after a berth until they are literally out of it.
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Old 10-07-2013, 10:58 PM    (permalink
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While I would have probably taken the points before the half, I certainly don't blame the Falcons for going for the TD. The playcall was the real tragedy. They tried to run Jaquizz into the Jets strength and it didn't work, to the surprise of no one. Blame the playcall.
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Old 10-07-2013, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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You don't give up the points is as old as the "HARD-ASS COACH TO GET THESE GUYS IN LINE" ********.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:00 PM    (permalink
TonyGfortheTD
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
If the Falcons kick the field goal, they lose 30-27.
If the Falcons go for it and don't make it, they lose 30-28.
If the Falcons go for it and do score, the score is 31-27 and the Falcons have to get a TD to win.
If the Falcons don't leave points to rot, the Jets would of had to score a TD to win it. I'm all for coaches not getting Super Conservative and going for it on 4th down, but that was not the time to do it.

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You don't give up the points is as old as the "HARD-ASS COACH TO GET THESE GUYS IN LINE" ********.
old ass football still wins a lot of games
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:01 PM    (permalink
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I would have taken the points before half, or at least thrown it to my stud WR or GOAT TE.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:01 PM    (permalink
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If the Falcons don't leave points to rot, the Jets would of had to score a TD to win it. I'm all for coaches not getting Super Conservative and going for it on 4th down, but that was not the time to do it.


old ass football still wins a lot of games
It loses a hell of a lot more games than it wins.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:02 PM    (permalink
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It loses a hell of a lot more games than it wins.
Feel free to provide facts.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:04 PM    (permalink
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If the Falcons kick the field goal, they lose 30-27.
If the Falcons go for it and don't make it, they lose 30-28.
If the Falcons go for it and do score, the score is 31-27 and the Falcons have to get a TD to win.

So whether they score or don't score, the end result is better than if they kick the field goal. It was 100% the right choice but it was the wrong play call.
if the falcons kick the field goal in the first half, they win 31-30. (or possibly 31-27 since the jets would have to go for a TD in that final drive)
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:05 PM    (permalink
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If the Falcons don't leave points to rot, the Jets would of had to score a TD to win it. I'm all for coaches not getting Super Conservative and going for it on 4th down, but that was not the time to do it.
That is not true. Let's assume the second half goes exactly the same either way. The Falcons kick the field goal to make it 17-10. They score again to make it 17-17. Jets kick a field goal to make it 20-17. Then the Jets score another TD to make it 27-17. The Falcons score to make it 27-24. Now, the Falcons have that last drive. Do they still go for it on 4th? No, they kick the field goal to tie it at 27. The Jets then drive down the field, kick the field goal, and win.

People are assuming that had the Falcons kicked the field goal at the end of the first half, the score would have been 31-27 when in reality, it would have been 27-27.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:07 PM    (permalink
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wait, i must've missed something at the end of the game. how did they end up with more points for not making it (30-28) than for kicking the field goal (30-27)?
Because at the end of the game, they kick the field goal to tie it at 27 rather rather than going for the TD. At 27-24 (which is the score if they kick in the first half) they kick the field goal. At 27-21 (which was the actual score) they have to go for the TD.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:08 PM    (permalink
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That is not true. Let's assume the second half goes exactly the same either way. The Falcons kick the field goal to make it 17-10. They score again to make it 17-17. Jets kick a field goal to make it 20-17. Then the Jets score another TD to make it 27-17. The Falcons score to make it 27-24. Now, the Falcons have that last drive. Do they still go for it on 4th? No, they kick the field goal to tie it at 27. The Jets then drive down the field, kick the field goal, and win.

People are assuming that had the Falcons kicked the field goal at the end of the first half, the score would have been 31-27 when in reality, it would have been 27-27.
Well hold on here. If the Falcons should be all super gutsy, why would they kick the field goal on that last drive?

"Lets assume the game goes exactly the same but I'm going to change a thing so that's not actually the case anymore."
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:09 PM    (permalink
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Again, lost in the shuffle was the fact that the shittyass Falcons defense sucks and they blew the game.
To a rookie QB.
Who was ripped to pieces in the draft process and on draft day.
At home.

WTF Atlanta defense????
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:10 PM    (permalink
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Just got home and saw the Jets-Falcons score

I'm confused.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:11 PM    (permalink
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Feel free to provide facts.
Read any study on expected points from going for it and kicking a field goal.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:14 PM    (permalink
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Well hold on here. If the Falcons should be all super gutsy, why would they kick the field goal on that last drive?

"Lets assume the game goes exactly the same but I'm going to change a thing so that's not actually the case anymore."
Because they lose the game otherwise. By going for it earlier in the game, it gives them a chance to make up for the points they lost by going for it in a similar situation.


...which they were able to do.

...and it's likely still a better call to go for it at the end of the game. They wouldn't do it though.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:16 PM    (permalink
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Well hold on here. If the Falcons should be all super gutsy, why would they kick the field goal on that last drive?

"Lets assume the game goes exactly the same but I'm going to change a thing so that's not actually the case anymore."
I meant the second half goes the same way in terms of the scoring. So the situation for the Falcons is the same except that after kicking the field goal, it's now 27-24 rather than 27-21. Going for it to end the half is not "super gutsy" as you say. It's actually super smart because the expected value is much greater than kicking in that scenario.

So in the scenario where it is 27-24 with 90 seconds left, every NFL coach ever kicks the field goal to tie the game. No coach ever goes for it there. So had they kicked the field goal in the first half, it is 27-27 not 28-27. The Jets still win.

The only way the Falcons win the game is by going for it in the first half. SO even with hindsight, it was the right call.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:22 PM    (permalink
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The right call.... if you don't run your undersized, ineffectual RB behind a floundering O-Line into the formidable Jets defensive front seven.

I know that the NFL has been taken over by the "kicking for it is actually losing points" fad, but advanced metrics fail to capture context and momentum. The Falcons lost momentum, provided the Jets with confidence and took easy points off the board against a stingy defense. I refuse to accept that psychology is no longer a factor in sports and everything can be explained with metrics. Kick the damn field goal.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:23 PM    (permalink
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So in the scenario where it is 27-24 with 90 seconds left, every NFL coach ever kicks the field goal to tie the game.
No they don't lol

This can go back and forth all night. Either way, leaving points on the board aside, the Falcons are in bad shape.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:23 PM    (permalink
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Mike Smith going to get fired!
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:24 PM    (permalink
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I don't think you can assume the second half goes the same if the Falcons kick the field goal. I think the Jets got huge momentum from making that 4th and goal stop.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:28 PM    (permalink
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The right call.... if you don't run your undersized, ineffectual RB behind a floundering O-Line into the formidable Jets defensive front seven.

I know that the NFL has been taken over by the "kicking for it is actually losing points" fad, but advanced metrics fail to capture context and momentum. The Falcons lost momentum, provided the Jets with confidence and took easy points off the board against a stingy defense. I refuse to accept that psychology is no longer a factor in sports and everything can be explained with metrics. Kick the damn field goal.
It's the right call, it's not the method's fault that they ran a midget behind a bunch of stalwart defensive lineman. The right call is to go shotgun and toss it to one of your 800 weapons.
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