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Old 12-02-2013, 10:07 AM    (permalink
keylime_5
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Originally Posted by DeadEagle View Post
Not that we'll really need to discuss this in a week, but the BCS top 3 are as follows:

FSU - .9948
OSU - .9503
Auburn - .9233


Auburn is currently .027 points behind Ohio State, with (5) Mizzou on deck, while Ohio State has (10) Michigan State.


For those interested, Auburn started last week .964 points back of Ohio State and shaved .937 of those points off of Ohio State's lead in the BCS. What do you think beating another BCS Top 5 team is going to earn them? Of course, even assuming Ohio State beats Sparty, the point differential is not great enough for the Buckeyes to hold onto that spot.



That all said, your 2013 National Championship Game will likely be Florida State v Auburn.


The only hope the Buckeyes have to get to that game right now, is Mizzou.
The human polls will maintain Ohio State at #2 if they beat Sparty, and them beating a top 10 team will give them a boost that won't make it enough for Auburn beating #5 Missouri to matter. Now if Ohio State played an unranked or lower ranked team this weekend it might make a difference, but they're playing a top 10 team so it doesn't matter. It's a win and you're in for Ohio State. If Auburn wanted to play in a title game they shouldn't have lost to a three loss team by two touchdowns.

And it's not like Auburn has been that impressive. They are two miracle plays from being a three loss team themselves pretty much.
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
Is LSU really that good? Their non-conference is a joke (as is pretty much everybody's). They beat Auburn before Auburn got hot, they lost to a mediocre Ole Miss, got dominated by Alabama, almost lost to a terrible Arkansas, struggled against a terrible Florida team, and probably would have lost to Georgia had Gurley not been hurt. What is so impressive about LSU really?
They did lose to Georgia.
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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They did lose to Georgia.
Hmm, makes it even worse.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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DeadEagle, leave the math to the grown ups.

If OSU beats MSU, they make it.

Also, if you want to belittle OSU, please apply to FSU which has an even worse schedule. But OMFG they looked better beating Idaho.

Whoopideedoo, the Oregon effect.
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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Who the hell said those teams were any good?

Obviously, Arizona State and Ohio State are the best teams in the country because they were the only teams to beat the Badgers. But let's not forget the Nittany Lions either. They should play in the National Championship game because.... shut it.


The BigTen is a powderpuff football conference right now. Wisconsin, as a Big Ten powerhouse program, would be a mid-level team in the Big 12, Pac-12, ACC and SEC, fighting for bowl eligibility.
Haha ok, buddy.

I never said Wisconsin should be in the National Championship? The only reason I called you out was because you said it was a "joke" to consider them a top 25 team, which they clearly are. New polls came out today, and the Badgers dropped to 21st (in BCS and all human polls), which I feel is accurate. EVERY computer poll has them somewhere between 13-22.

Regardless of what you want to believe about the Big 10, Wisconsin is a good football team who gives every team they play a tough game. A 10 point loss against Michigan State in 2010 was the only time in the LAST 4 SEASONS that the Badgers lost by more than 7 points. In every other game, they have been in position to win or tie on their final possession. I don't know how other teams compare to that, but the Badgers are a competitive team in any conference.
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by DeadEagle View Post
Not that we'll really need to discuss this in a week, but the BCS top 3 are as follows:

FSU - .9948
OSU - .9503
Auburn - .9233


Auburn is currently .027 points behind Ohio State, with (5) Mizzou on deck, while Ohio State has (10) Michigan State.


For those interested, Auburn started last week .964 points back of Ohio State and shaved .937 of those points off of Ohio State's lead in the BCS. What do you think beating another BCS Top 5 team is going to earn them? Of course, even assuming Ohio State beats Sparty, the point differential is not great enough for the Buckeyes to hold onto that spot.



That all said, your 2013 National Championship Game will likely be Florida State v Auburn.


The only hope the Buckeyes have to get to that game right now, is Mizzou.
For what it’s worth, I’m not an expert on the computer formulas of the BCS, but ESPN’s BCS expert Brad Edwards just said what’s outlined above is wrong. Quite wrong. After breaking down the numbers, he said the ground Auburn will gain in the computers is minimal. If Auburn wants to make the title game, he said their fate rests with human pollsters. Without overcoming Ohio State in the computers, Auburn would have to secure a comfortable margin in the polls to leapfrog them for the second spot in the championship game. And it’s rare that human pollsters will vote a one-loss team over an undefeated team from an automatic qualifier. Much less a comfortable margin.

And neither team should be overlooking their opponent in the conference championship game.
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Old 12-02-2013, 11:01 AM    (permalink
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I hate Ohio State and wish they go 0-12 every season. But it will be ******* bull **** if they go 12-0 and don't get to go to the championship. It's a two team thing and thank God its over after this season it is over, but it's what we got and Ohio State deserves it if they beat Michigan State (tho I am like grandpa BF_51, I got Sparty beating Ohio State)
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:00 AM    (permalink
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Is LSU really that good? Their non-conference is a joke (as is pretty much everybody's). They beat Auburn before Auburn got hot, they lost to a mediocre Ole Miss, got dominated by Alabama, almost lost to a terrible Arkansas, struggled against a terrible Florida team, and probably would have lost to Georgia had Gurley not been hurt. What is so impressive about LSU really?

Re-read what you quoted.


LSU isn't that great, but they are far and away better than everyone that Ohio State has played thus far.


Point is, was, that if Ohio State plays Auburn schedule, they are a 3 or 4 loss team.
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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Re-read what you quoted.


LSU isn't that great, but they are far and away better than everyone that Ohio State has played thus far.


Point is, was, that if Ohio State plays Auburn schedule, they are a 3 or 4 loss team.
I see you are downing the purple drank early this morning. Your statement is asinine. Auburn has played one very good team, and that was Alabama. They needed an absolute boneheaded play by Georgia to beat them. A terrible Georgia team at that.

Auburn needed a last second TD to beat a rotten MSU team.

Also, LSU lost three games, two to not very good teams.
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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I see you are downing the purple drank early this morning. Your statement is asinine. Auburn has played one very good team, and that was Alabama. They needed an absolute boneheaded play by Georgia to beat them. A terrible Georgia team at that.

Auburn needed a last second TD to beat a rotten MSU team.

Also, LSU lost three games, two to not very good teams.
Ya, but those two not very good teams would be 1-2 loss teams at worst in the Big Ten, possibly undefeated.

This thread has been fantastic, and will continue to be fantastic for like the next month. Thanks for the entertainment and hilarious lulz guys, keep up the good work.
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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I think Auburn has an extremely thin chance to leapfrog tOSU if both teams win...but for that to happen I think Auburn would need tOSU to struggle against and win narrowly against Sparty while they roll over Mizzou. And even then it's not a given, but it might sway just enough human pollsters and it might help them just enough in the computer rankings.
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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I haven't really looked at the math, but I'm guessing Auburn would need something like 60%+ of voters to vote them 2 and OSU lower than 3rd (not just 3rd) in order to make up enough ground. Good luck with that.
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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Ohio State is undefeated against a tougher schedule than Florida State. Why are you only complaining about OSU?
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:29 AM    (permalink
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Because OSU didn't do a good enough job at not losing any games.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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ESPN explaining how voters can cheat OSU out of the Bowl. at the end of this video ESPN is explaining that voters can rig their Harris Poll votes (i.e. put Ohio State outside of the top 5) and not have to worry about losing their vote or retaliation because there won't be a Harris Poll next year.

Starts at 1:20

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn%3A10068485
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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the SEC network at eSECpn sure is trying it's best to get the SEC back into the title game.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:40 AM    (permalink
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DeadEagle, leave the math to the grown ups.
So then why are you commenting?

All I see you posting are hypotheticals, what-ifs and backwards logic. When you feel like you want to join the rest of us, living in the world of hard numbers and fact, feel free.

Just like Longhorn fans just a few years ago, OSU fans don't realize exactly how slim a lead they actually have. It is, in all seriousness, intents and purposes, a statistical tie right now. And it comes down to who is going to beat the better team.

(3)Auburn v (5) Missouri
(2)Ohio State v (10) Michigan State

That should be pretty obvious. Granted, if OSU happens to blow out MSU and Auburn struggles to win v Mizzou.... OSU will keep that slim lead. But if Auburn blows out Mizzou and Ohio State struggles to win v MSU, the Buckeyes will get leapfrogged. If both teams are dominant..... toss up. If they both lose...... it's Mizzou v FSU.


That's what the math adds up to.


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If OSU beats MSU, they make it.

Also, if you want to belittle OSU, please apply to FSU which has an even worse schedule. But OMFG they looked better beating Idaho.

Maybe you feel FSU should have scheduled Florida A&M, San Diego State and Buffalo...... instead of Nevada, Florida and Idaho like it did? Barf, to your logic.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:42 AM    (permalink
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I'm guessing.

Yeah, we know.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:51 AM    (permalink
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Harris Poll and Coaches Poll will both put Ohio State #2 if they beat Michigan State. That will seal the deal. Everyone in the media seems to accept this as reality, even butthurt Finebaum.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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All I see you posting are hypotheticals, what-ifs and backwards logic. When you feel like you want to join the rest of us, living in the world of hard numbers and fact, feel free.

That's what the math adds up to.
12-0 is the ultimate hard number. Any argument for an Auburn team that has lost over an undefeated Ohio State HAS to use hypotheticals.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:57 AM    (permalink
iowatreat54
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Originally Posted by DeadEagle View Post
So then why are you commenting?

All I see you posting are hypotheticals, what-ifs and backwards logic. When you feel like you want to join the rest of us, living in the world of hard numbers and fact, feel free.

Just like Longhorn fans just a few years ago, OSU fans don't realize exactly how slim a lead they actually have. It is, in all seriousness, intents and purposes, a statistical tie right now. And it comes down to who is going to beat the better team.

(3)Auburn v (5) Missouri
(2)Ohio State v (10) Michigan State

That should be pretty obvious. Granted, if OSU happens to blow out MSU and Auburn struggles to win v Mizzou.... OSU will keep that slim lead. But if Auburn blows out Mizzou and Ohio State struggles to win v MSU, the Buckeyes will get leapfrogged. If both teams are dominant..... toss up. If they both lose...... it's Mizzou v FSU.
The point that you are missing is that Auburn, for all intents and purposes, has maxed out their computer rankings. It will take significant collusion amongst human voters to drop OSU (5th or below as pointed out above) AND Auburn #2 in order for Auburn to make up the gap. They already made up the majority of the gap from last week to this week in the computers, they really can't improve much more there.

It's not like all of a sudden if both teams win comfortably or even OSU by 1 and Auburn by 50, that magic science will automatically put Auburn #2. It's all up to the voters, and while possible, I highly doubt the majority will vote Auburn #2, let alone combined with dropping OSU 3+ spots just for barely beating a top 20 team. The statistical probability of this happening is astronomical right now.

Also, was the Texas team a few years ago undefeated and jumped by a 1 loss team? Oh that's right, they weren't, because it has never happened. What an idiotic comparison.

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Old 12-03-2013, 01:04 PM    (permalink
badgerbacker
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Haha I just saw the Texas comparison.

DeadEagle, when talking about OSU being left out, are you referring to the 2009 Longhorns who went to the National Championship? Or the 2005 Longhorns, who went to the National Championship?
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Old 12-03-2013, 01:43 PM    (permalink
keylime_5
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I think he's referring to the 2008 Longhorns who were left out because Oklahoma went instead. That was the year of the TTU/UT/OU cluster ****. They weren't undefeated though so it doesn't make sense.
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Old 12-03-2013, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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In my short-term memory, I can't think of a time where an undefeated team was jumped by a 1-loss team. The OU/Texas/TTU debacle in 08 benefited my team, but I still hated that, just because OU had lost the earliest put them ahead of UT.

In this situation if OSU wins out, no matter there terribad schedule, they should be in the national title. They did what they were asked to do, I hate the "style" points argument even though it is a very real thing, a win is a win in my book despite the media bias towards teams winning by 35+.
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Old 12-03-2013, 02:00 PM    (permalink
badgerbacker
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I think he's referring to the 2008 Longhorns who were left out because Oklahoma went instead. That was the year of the TTU/UT/OU cluster ****. They weren't undefeated though so it doesn't make sense.
Ah ok. Yeah, that's a terrible comparison for OSU. Longhorns went into Conference Championship week #4 and weren't playing for the Conference Championship. They weren't jumped by anybody with a worse record. If there is any parallel to be drawn from that team to one from this season, it would be Alabama.
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