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Old 10-17-2013, 09:12 AM    (permalink
DeadEagle
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Default 2014 QB Question

Ok...... so I've been pondering something here about this coming QB class.



Let me start by saying that I kinda sorta expect Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel to declare early, and then Brett Hundley, Marcus Mariotta and Kevin Hogan to stay in school. So, taking into account the senior class, I roughly see this as the top 10 group, in alphabetical order.


Quote:
Teddy Bridgewater, UL
Tahj Boyd, Clem
Derek Carr, Fresno
David Fales, SDSU
Johnny Manziel, TAMU
AJ McCarron, Alabama
Zach Mettenberger, LSU
Stephen Morris, UM
Aaron Murray, UGA
Keith Price, UW

So.... the question is really twofold. First.... who do we see shaking out as the first and second rounders of this group, and second.... how big a gap is there between the first round grades and the second round grades?

Looking to get some opinions on this.....
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Old 10-17-2013, 11:04 AM    (permalink
Attyla the Hawk
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My take:

1st

Teddy Bridgewater, UL
Zach Mettenberger, LSU
Tahj Boyd, Clem

2nd

None

3rd

AJ McCarron, Alabama

4th-5th

Derek Carr, Fresno
David Fales, SDSU
Johnny Manziel, TAMU

6th-7th

Stephen Morris, UM
Aaron Murray, UGA

UDFA

Keith Price, UW

I'd say Bridgewater and Mettenberger are cementing 1st round status. Boyd can be a fringe 1st round guy -- someone you see picked up in the teens. He is the best of the project class QBs.

Manziel is going to be tough to forecast. Obviously for teams looking for a face of the franchise, he's going to be off their boards. His immaturity is going to cause teams to balk. As a passer, I wouldn't rate him exceptionally high. As a runner he's a savant. He needs to improve on his passing and his ability to work is severely questionable in that regard. I would put a 4th round grade on him, as I'd rather have a third round starter elsewhere than a QB who has a high risk of not developing after being drafted.

I don't see any quality 2nd round QBs unless Boyd falls. Usually you look for QBs with a mix of outstanding physical gifts and good polish. There really isn't a QB that fits that standard.

McCarron is close. I just don't see the arm to warrant a 2nd round grade. Game manager moniker aside, he's shown the ability to flip the switch and take the team on his shoulders when needed. I think he's more capable than that. He's got a very outside chance to be a day 1 starter but it would have to be with a team devoid of QB talent -- like a Jacksonville. And then he kind of looks like a Chad Henne type talent. How he develops post draft will separate him. The problem is, in his environment he hasn't been required to develop in that way. His team's success has stunted his development as a professional QB.

To me Carr and Fales are just guys. I wouldn't even find them comparable to the caliber of prospects as Nick Foles, Matt Barkley or Kirk Cousins. Well maybe Foles, who ironically has fared better than Barkley and Cousins. Foles was pretty bleah coming out. But he's taken to professional coaching much better than is typical. Carr and Fales are similarly underwhelming prospects who you'd just be rolling the dice and hoping that some dormant switch is triggered and they just start being many times better than they are.

Morris is just not good. Murray has very limited physical upside. You'd simply be hoping he'd be able to develop his arm post draft like Brees did. But even if he did that, he'd be pre draft Brees at that. Has smarts but also seems to wilt under intense pressure moments.

Keith Price is not draft worthy. He still suffers lingering confidence effects from last season. He hasn't shown much ability to be more than a point guard type QB. But his decision making and mental toughness are highly questionable. He doesn't have good speed anymore so he's not going to be a dual threat guy. His deep ball is adequate but not great.


EDIT: Also, while I know the premise was set by the OP, I would find it hard to believe Mariotta stays. He would be my top rated QB and a definite first round grade QB. Mariotta has elevated his play more than any other than perhaps Mettenberger. But they are very very close in that regard and it's more a function of Zach having started back from the dark weeds to a guy teams could consider drafting early. Mariotta was already a day 2 prospect coming into the draft.

Mariotta is honing and developing as a passer by leaps and bounds. Outside of Manziel, he's the best dual threat prospect in CFB. But his passing is showing consistent signs that he can be better than average at the next level. Teams are going to rate him above Bridgewater and Mettenberger because of his dual threat ability. Particularly teams that don't have the personnel to protect their 1st round QB adequately.

Last edited by Attyla the Hawk : 10-17-2013 at 11:15 AM. Reason: added addendum
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Old 10-17-2013, 11:15 AM    (permalink
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Assuming this scenario plays out I'd say that Bridgewater is the only lock for the 1st round but I also agree with the people who believe that a team will fall in love with Manziel and take him in the 1st even if I don't think it's a good idea.

Bridgewater is head and shoulders above the rest of the class with all of the other prospects having fairly significant concerns about them.

There's still a lot of time before the draft and there will be plenty of opportunities for these guys to move up peoples boards. Zach Mettenberger is a guy on the rise that Scott has mentioned a few times. He still has a ways to go to get into the 1st round conversation but has a lot of the tools you look for in an NFL QB.

If you want an idea of where they are currently valued I'd say

1st round
Bridgewater is a lock
Manziel might sneak in

2nd round
AJ McCarron
Tahj Boyd
Stephen Morris
Zach Mettenberger

Keep in mind this is not my ranking of them but the general consensus I've gotten from others.

Basically this class comes down to an elite prospect in Bridgewater and a bunch of guys with some nice tools but also some concerns. Determining their rankings basically comes down to measure each individual based on their respective risks vs. rewards.
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Old 10-17-2013, 02:45 PM    (permalink
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Blake Bortles, Central Florida. Mid first round.
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Old 10-17-2013, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Babylon View Post
Blake Bortles, Central Florida. Mid first round.
Has there been any indication as to whether or not he's going to declare after this season? I like Bortles a lot but I haven't seen many draftniks give him a first round grade so I think there's a good chance he goes back for his senior season.

I also agree that Mariota is almost guaranteed to declare at this point. He seems likely to receive a high first round grade and it's hard to pass that up. I would be stunned if he went ahead of Bridgewater though. I feel like everyone is overreacting to the success of the read option last year. It's been significantly less effective this year and it still puts QBs in positions to get hurt.

Mariota has a ton of upside but he hasn't been asked to make the kind of reads and throws from the pocket that he'll have to make in the NFL.
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Old 10-17-2013, 04:32 PM    (permalink
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The highest I have seen Bortles rated is a mid-2nd rounder. All indications out of Orlando are that he will almost certainly return. A lot can change (especially if he does great on Friday when all the scouts are watching Teddy Bridgewater) over the next few months though. I personally don't think him declaring would be a bad thing (assuming he is pretty highly regarded among NFL teams). I don't really see George O'Leary and his staff as guys who will really help his progression a ton.
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Old 10-17-2013, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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I'd say up to 8 guys have a shot at round 1 with as many as 4-6 likely to go that high.

1 Bridgewater
2) Manziel
3) Boyd
4) Carr
5) Mettenberger
6) McCarron

Not far behind
7) Fales
8) Murray

The spread offences in college today make college QB's far more likely to succeed at the next level. Unlike past generations of QB's, they get to throw the ball at a much faster pace than ever before and pro scouts are far more able to get a read on their pro potential.
When you add in the fact, that pro QB's are now playing a game that is far easier than past generations where every rule change has made throwing the ball far more simple than ever before and QB's have a far less complex road for success.
This is the reason college QB's can come right in and dominate in their rookie seasons.
I for one, won't be shocked if we get 7 1st rounders in this year's draft. If E.J. Manual can come in and start as a rookie, there are at least 7 college QB's who look far more promising than he ever did.
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Old 10-17-2013, 05:39 PM    (permalink
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If Mannion declares he should also garner first round consideration. Best QB prospect in the state of Oregon and best QB prospect in the PAC 12. Its criminal no one talks about this kid.
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Old 10-18-2013, 05:37 AM    (permalink
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My rankings at the moment have them:

Teddy Bridgewater, UL - high first
Johnny Manziel, TAMU - wildcard, but mid-high first round

Zach Mettenberger, LSU - mid to late first round

Tajh Boyd, Clemson - late one/early two

Derek Carr, Fresno State - second

Stephen Morris, UM - late two/early three - higher if he is more consistent

AJ McCarron, Alabama and Aaron Murray, UGA - both late three/early four

Keith Price, UW - early day three, but rising

David Fales, SDSU - fifth round
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Old 10-19-2013, 07:44 AM    (permalink
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Bridgewater isn't fading, but he isn't ascending this season either.

What's the deal with Bortles??

I don't know how many of these guys are traditional first round type prospects, but most of them seem like solid 2nd round type draft picks.
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Old 10-19-2013, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Bridgewater isn't fading, but he isn't ascending this season either.

What's the deal with Bortles??

I don't know how many of these guys are traditional first round type prospects, but most of them seem like solid 2nd round type draft picks.
I think in the case of Bridgewater i'd say it's stock neutral while others like Mariota, Mannion and Hundley are probably putting their names in the mix.

Bortles needs another year. He's got a lot of what you look for in a QB but needs to put it all together.
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Old 10-19-2013, 01:07 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Bridgewater isn't fading, but he isn't ascending this season either.

What's the deal with Bortles??

I don't know how many of these guys are traditional first round type prospects, but most of them seem like solid 2nd round type draft picks.
The issue for bridgewater has been the schedule has not really allowed him too "ascend" as you put it. What more could he have done really done this season?

Last night they lost but were up 28-7 and the team pretty much just started sleep walking and allowed UCF back into. He still threw for 350 yards and two scores.

He doesn't play in offense that is going to allow for big flashy college plays like the other guys.
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Old 10-19-2013, 01:45 PM    (permalink
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My best guess would be Bridgewater, Mariota, Hundley, and Boyd ending up in the first round. Manziel is difficult to project because he's good enough to warrant drafting there, but as fans we can't really assess his personality and character like NFL teams will be able to, and those factors could easily prevent a team from feeling comfortable drafting him that high, but ultimately I'd say he'll go there as well. Mettenberger is probably more of a second-rounder. Carr, McCarron, and Murray should be in the second or third-round mix.
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Old 10-19-2013, 03:01 PM    (permalink
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Boyd isn't a first rounder and not sold on Hundley either. I think this season it has become pretty evident that the spread/zone/read options are not going to be totally overtaking the NFL like all the experts thought prior to the season. Mariota also scares me for that reason plus the fact he plays in the same system that Chip Kelly has brought the NFL w/ mixed results and all his games are blowouts, I would like to see how he plays in close games in pressure situations.
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Old 10-19-2013, 03:33 PM    (permalink
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Boyd isn't a first rounder and not sold on Hundley either. I think this season it has become pretty evident that the spread/zone/read options are not going to be totally overtaking the NFL like all the experts thought prior to the season. Mariota also scares me for that reason plus the fact he plays in the same system that Chip Kelly has brought the NFL w/ mixed results and all his games are blowouts, I would like to see how he plays in close games in pressure situations.
We're living in an age where Brandon Weeden, Christian Ponder, and Tim Tebow are first-round picks, I'd be shocked if Boyd and Hundley didn't end up there.
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Old 10-19-2013, 05:33 PM    (permalink
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We're living in an age where Brandon Weeden, Christian Ponder, and Tim Tebow are first-round picks, I'd be shocked if Boyd and Hundley didn't end up there.
Hundley is doing so hot against a good defense. Still confused as to why Mariota and Hundley are being talked up as high first round picks yet no one mentions Mannion.
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Old 10-19-2013, 05:49 PM    (permalink
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Becausr they got **** tons of talent.

I want Mariota or maybe Boyd in Oakland!
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Old 10-19-2013, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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Each week I sour a bit on Bridgewater. Hundley struggled but I still like his raw talent a lot, and Mariota's just been ridiculous. The one I really can't decide on right now is Boyd.
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Old 10-19-2013, 10:16 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Raiderz4Life View Post
Becausr they got **** tons of talent.

I want Mariota or maybe Boyd in Oakland!
Mannion doesn't?
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Old 10-19-2013, 11:43 PM    (permalink
fredder
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This proved to be a tough week for a few of the top prospects.

Mettenberger is in danger of undoing all the good he's done for his stock this season. A few more games like the one he had against Georgia can turn it around but he's definitely trending down.

Hundley's rough game against Stanford makes me more confident that he could benefit from an extra year in school. If he comes out this year I think he'll be a first round pick based on talent but an extra year under Jim Mora should help him mature as a passer and become more consistent.

I still can't envision Boyd as a first round pick and I don't see him as an NFL QB at this point. His game today certainly didn't help his stock.
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Old 10-20-2013, 04:48 AM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
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This proved to be a tough week for a few of the top prospects.

Mettenberger is in danger of undoing all the good he's done for his stock this season. A few more games like the one he had against Georgia can turn it around but he's definitely trending down.

Hundley's rough game against Stanford makes me more confident that he could benefit from an extra year in school. If he comes out this year I think he'll be a first round pick based on talent but an extra year under Jim Mora should help him mature as a passer and become more consistent.

I still can't envision Boyd as a first round pick and I don't see him as an NFL QB at this point. His game today certainly didn't help his stock.
Why do you keep saying you don't see Boyd as a QB in the league??
I mean, not even as a team's #2??

BTW I think he can start.

Lazy comparison but I see a similar game to McNabb.
I just don't get what people see as illegitimate about Boyd's career at Clemson that would make someone think he absolutely cannot play QB in the NFL.

FSU's defense is going to shut down most if not all QBs in the BCS.
Winston is the golden child, but the Seminoles D is their road to a BCS championship.
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Old 10-20-2013, 10:29 AM    (permalink
SolidGold
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Why do you keep saying you don't see Boyd as a QB in the league??
I mean, not even as a team's #2??

BTW I think he can start.

Lazy comparison but I see a similar game to McNabb.
I just don't get what people see as illegitimate about Boyd's career at Clemson that would make someone think he absolutely cannot play QB in the NFL.

FSU's defense is going to shut down most if not all QBs in the BCS.
Winston is the golden child, but the Seminoles D is their road to a BCS championship.
Boyd = Troy Smith. I think he can be a spot starter and solid backup QB but he is not a franchise guy at all. He got a 4th round grade last year which is why he did not declare, can't really see his stock getting much higher after this season.
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Old 10-20-2013, 12:15 PM    (permalink
Babylon
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Boyd = Troy Smith. I think he can be a spot starter and solid backup QB but he is not a franchise guy at all. He got a 4th round grade last year which is why he did not declare, can't really see his stock getting much higher after this season.
Troy Smith is probably a bit of a harsh comparison but he's a lot closer to Smith than McNabb.

Looking forward to watching Mannion next Saturday against Stanford. He's been great but their schedule has been really soft. He could get up in that top 3 conversation with a big game.
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Old 10-20-2013, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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We're living in an age where Brandon Weeden, Christian Ponder, and Tim Tebow are first-round picks, I'd be shocked if Boyd and Hundley didn't end up there.

True, but we are also in an age where all 3 of those guys sucked
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Old 10-20-2013, 10:21 PM    (permalink
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Boyd = Troy Smith. I think he can be a spot starter and solid backup QB but he is not a franchise guy at all. He got a 4th round grade last year which is why he did not declare, can't really see his stock getting much higher after this season.
Troy Smith? U srs bruh?
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