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Old 10-23-2013, 12:01 PM    (permalink
cgf (Rosebud)
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Originally Posted by CC.SD View Post
Is this some kind of revelation? I usually hate the idea of stomping on a thread's very subject when it could lead to a decent discussion but RBs being dime-a-dozen or overvalued has been a well known entity for years and years.
Maybe next time he can do a thread about how interior OL bring a lot more bang for the buck at the top of the draft than OTs because of how teams move pass rushers around and bring heat up the middle so often now. Maybe point to the disparate bust rates between OTs and other OL picked in the first and second and a team like NO who have maintained a strong OL despite letting OTs walk left, right and center. Then maybe compare a few teams who are good inside but awful outside or vice versa to come to the realization that it's easier for teams to work around weak OTs than a weak interior.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:01 PM    (permalink
yo123
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Is this some kind of revelation? I usually hate the idea of stomping on a thread's very subject when it could lead to a decent discussion but RBs being dime-a-dozen or overvalued has been a well known entity for years and years.

No, but people for whatever reason like to make it seem like they're breaking new ground every time it's brought up.

That said, anyone who can singlehandedly will a crappy team to a playoff appearance (Adrian Peterson) is not a waste of a first round pick. That's stupid.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:03 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by cgf (Rosebud) View Post
It is David Wilson's fault he's not an interior lineman *nods head in approval*
That's the point.

If the RB performance is so dependent on the OL, then why spend premium picks on the RB when you could just pick OL instead and plug any RB in? (Which is what the 2007-2011 Giants did - good OL, any RB can be successful).
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:04 PM    (permalink
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No, but people for whatever reason like to make it seem like they're breaking new ground every time it's brought up.

That said, anyone who can singlehandedly will a crappy team to a playoff appearance (Adrian Peterson) is not a waste of a first round pick. That's stupid.
Peterson had possibly the BEST, or second-best, season a RB could have, and yet all it got the Vikings was 10 wins and a playoff blowout loss.

What does that say about the value of the RB and the value of Peterson himself?
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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It's like this is just occuring to you and you have to spread the word as fast as you can.
I've thought this for years but clearly there are still people who are naive enough to think otherwise, both on these forums and in the NFL.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:06 PM    (permalink
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Peterson had possibly the BEST, or second-best, season a RB could have, and yet all it got the Vikings was 10 wins and a playoff blowout loss.

What does that say about the value of the RB and the value of Peterson himself?

What if we had a competent quarterback and receivers? That number jumps to 12-13 wins and a shot at winning in the playoffs. The value of a player doesn't hinge on his ability to win by himself. Joe Thomas has been an all pro LT for the better part of a decade and the Browns have sucked the entire time.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:07 PM    (permalink
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Can we please get a "10 reasons to never ever ever pass on a franchise quarterback unless you already have one" thread? I can't even tell this is a horse anymore. We need some fresh dead meat.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:08 PM    (permalink
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That's the point.

If the RB performance is so dependent on the OL, then why spend premium picks on the RB when you could just pick OL instead and plug any RB in? (Which is what the 2007-2008 Giants did - great OL, any RB can be successful).
Why do we draft WRs at all if their performance is so dependent on the QB? Because it's harder to find big play threats later in the draft who don't come with bigger question marks. You don't need an OL filled with first rounders, but you need it not to be horribad, that can be accomplished elsewise and then you've got a playmaker you'd need to be pull a KC and luck into being able to find in the third.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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What if we had a competent quarterback and receivers? That number jumps to 12-13 wins and a shot at winning in the playoffs. The value of a player doesn't hinge on his ability to win by himself. Joe Thomas has been an all pro LT for the better part of a decade and the Browns have sucked the entire time.
If the Vikings had a competent quarterback and receivers, they still wouldn't need Peterson.

Winning in the NFL is all about two things: how you throw the ball and how you stop the opposing team from throwing the ball.

The positions that matter most in that regard are: QB, 43DE/34OLB, CB, OT, WR, and pass-catching TE. All of those positions should be selected ahead of any others that do not affect the passing game as much.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:16 PM    (permalink
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Well I'm done defending him for a while. He had several lanes and still ran into his blocker's ass or right at a defender multiple times. I hope his RB coach works with him a lot over the bye. With Wayne going down we need him to play like a guy picked in the 1st.

That sounds an awful lot like Mark Ingram.



I blame Saban for all of this.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:20 PM    (permalink
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Peterson had possibly the BEST, or second-best, season a RB could have, and yet all it got the Vikings was 10 wins and a playoff blowout loss.

What does that say about the value of the RB and the value of Peterson himself?
a lot b/c the Vikings didnt have much of a passing game and their defense wasnt very good either and they made the playoffs in a very competitive NFC wild card race on the strength of Peterson.

Of course Peterson is not the norm, he is a once-in-a-generation kind of player. But there are plenty of damn good backs in this league who have been drafted in the first or second round. And if they are stuck on bad teams, it is not because of the one draft pick they spent on the running back that the team sucks...

Steven Jackson was a good example throughout his years in STL, he was always a great player, but they never built a solid OL for him to run behind. They never got a good QB and had a strong passing game to complement the run game. Is the reason they couldn't do that b/c they had invested too much in Jackson??? OF COURSE NOT. It's because they used the 2nd overall pick on Jason Smith, Roger Saffold could never stay healthy, they spent the 1st overall pick on Sam Bradford, who has been average at best, they have never had a legitmate no.1 WR on the team with SJax...bottom line there were other problems in STL, and they not the kind of problems that that 1 draft pick would have fixed.

Obviously it is not good to reach on a running back, b/c they do have short shelf lives, and they are easier to find later in the draft than other positions, and it is very possible to get by with a RBC approach, and it is becoming a passing league. But still, a big-time running back can make a huge impact. Look at what Jamaal Charles means to the Chiefs' success, look at what Marshawn means to the Seahawks, look at what Peterson meant for the Vikes last year, what Frank Gore has meant to the 49ers over the years, the force LeSean McCoy is on the Eagles offense...Now of course not all of these guys were high draft picks, but the point is if you think you have a chance to land the next one of these guys, it is worth taking a shot. That doesn't mean you dont have to build the rest of your team properly. You don't want to overvalue the position. You dont want to make a crazy trade up for Ryan Matthews like the Chargers did b/c you think you need to find the next LT (who was a 1st round pick who did quite well with the team that picked him). You still have to make sure to build a quality OL, have a passing game. You cant just take a 1st round HB and throw him in there with whoever and think its gonna work.

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Old 10-23-2013, 12:20 PM    (permalink
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That sounds an awful lot like Mark Ingram.



I blame Saban for all of this.
You should blame the idiot GMs who pick RBs on the best team in college football which is stacked, year-in and year-out, with the best OL, the best WRs, the best DBs, the best LBs, and thus blows out every other team college, and gives every RB who plays for them easy garbage-time yards and gaping holes opened up by NFL OLinemen going against college DLinemen.

If you want a good RB, look for the ones that play behind sub-par OLs - ones who actually have to *work* for their yardage and display their skill.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:24 PM    (permalink
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a lot b/c the Vikings didnt have much of a passing game and their defense wasnt very good either and they made the playoffs in a very competitive NFC wild card race on the strength of Peterson.

Of course Peterson is not the norm, he is a once-in-a-generation kind of player. But there are plenty of damn good backs in this league who have been drafted in the first or second round. And if they are stuck on bad teams, it is not because of the one draft pick they spent on the running back that the team sucks...

Steven Jackson was a good example throughout his years in STL, he was always a great player, but they never built a solid OL for him to run behind. They never got a good QB and had a strong passing game to complement the run game. Is the reason they couldn't do that b/c they had invested too much in Jackson??? OF COURSE NOT. It's because they used the 2nd overall pick on Jason Smith, Roger Saffold could never stay healthy, they spent the 1st overall pick on Sam Bradford, who has been average at best, they have never had a legitmate no.1 WR on the team with SJax...bottom line there were other problems in STL, and they not the kind of problems that that 1 draft pick would have fixed.
And you just illustrated a good point here...

This team was bad with Steven Jackson, and could be bad *without* Steven Jackson.

It could be good with Steven Jackson, and it could be good *without* Steven Jackson.

Steven Jackson, or any other RB, has little to no effect on how good the Rams, or any team, were/are.

What makes a team good in the NFL, personnel-wise, first and foremost: its QB. Then its pass rushers (43DE/34OLB). Then its OTs. Then its CBs and WRs. Then interior linemen on both sides of the ball. Then other positions that affect the passing game like FS and pass-catching TE. Dead last (if we don't consider non-players like Punter and Kicker and Snapper), bringing up the rear, are the RBs and their corresponding position on the other side of the ball, the ILB.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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If the Vikings had a competent quarterback and receivers, they still wouldn't need Peterson.

Winning in the NFL is all about two things: how you throw the ball and how you stop the opposing team from throwing the ball.

The positions that matter most in that regard are: QB, 43DE/34OLB, CB, OT, WR, and pass-catching TE. All of those positions should be selected ahead of any others that do not affect the passing game as much.
yes it has become more and more of a passing league, but that is a ridiculous oversimplification. Teams that try to completely abandon the run game and go all pass-happy find out the hard way at some point that balance is still important.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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You should blame the idiot GMs who pick RBs on the best team in college football which is stacked, year-in and year-out, with the best OL, the best WRs, the best DBs, the best LBs, and thus blows out every other team college, and gives every RB who plays for them easy garbage-time yards and gaping holes opened up by NFL OLinemen going against college DLinemen.

If you want a good RB, look for the ones that play behind sub-par OLs - ones who actually have to *work* for their yardage and display their skill.


You are a fire truck racing around town looking to put out fires that aren't there.



I get it.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:30 PM    (permalink
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And you just illustrated a good point here...

This team was bad with Steven Jackson, and could be bad *without* Steven Jackson.

It could be good with Steven Jackson, and it could be good *without* Steven Jackson.

Steven Jackson, or any other RB, has little to no effect on how good the Rams, or any team, were/are.

What makes a team good in the NFL, personnel-wise, first and foremost: its QB. Then its pass rushers (43DE/34OLB). Then its OTs. Then its CBs and WRs. Then interior linemen on both sides of the ball. Then other positions that affect the passing game like FS and pass-catching TE. Dead last (if we don't consider non-players like Punter and Kicker and Snapper), bringing up the rear, are the RBs and their corresponding position on the other side of the ball, the ILB.

Steven Jackson didnt have little to no effect. The truth is one player can only do so much...Only a few transcendent QBs can really be talked about as guys who can go anywhere and have success. I can rattle off plenty of great CBs, OTs, WRs, Pass-catching TEs, Pass-rushers, etc who have been stuck on bad teams. Its not because they have little to no effect, its because they are on a bad team, and its a team game not an individual game.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:45 PM    (permalink
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Steven Jackson didnt have little to no effect. The truth is one player can only do so much...Only a few transcendent QBs can really be talked about as guys who can go anywhere and have success. I can rattle off plenty of great CBs, OTs, WRs, Pass-catching TEs, Pass-rushers, etc who have been stuck on bad teams. Its not because they have little to no effect, its because they are on a bad team, and its a team game not an individual game.
QB has far more effect on winning/losing than any other position in the game.

RB has far *less* effect on winning/losing than most other positions in the game.

The rest of the positions are in between, with pass rushers and the like up at the top of that middle group.

Thus it makes sense to spend all 2nd and 1st round picks on those positions of higher impact than RB.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:46 PM    (permalink
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QB has far more effect on winning/losing than any other position in the game.
Agreed

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RB has far *less* effect on winning/losing than most other positions in the game.
I would say there are a number of positions that HB is not FAR less valuable than (RT, RG, C, LG, 4-3 OLB, 3-4 ILB, S, TE)...and of course there is position value change depending on the intricacies of the scheme any coach is running.

But yes overall I agree, HB is a low-value position. no doubt.

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The rest of the positions are in between, with pass rushers and the like up at the top of that middle group.
Yes, pass-rushers will always be a position of premium importance. QB, LT, Pass-rusher. those are the 3 most important positions IMO. And generally they tend to go the highest in the draft.

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Thus it makes sense to spend all 2nd and 1st round picks on those positions of higher impact than RB.
see, this is where you lose me. Just because HB = low position value, does not mean you should never spend a high pick on a back. There are plenty of backs whose talent and impact make them worth a 1st round pick. There are sometimes teams who have the right pieces in place, and getting a high-impact running back can make all the difference. Usually teams that arent very good and feel they need a running back and reach for one tend to get burned, b/c its hard to build a team around a running back. But if you have a QB, you have an OL in place, your defense is solid, your ground game is lacking, and there is a back you really like available early, of course you should take him.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:56 PM    (permalink
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- Green Bay? Eddie Lacy is their leading rusher and he was acquired with a second round pick. However, they have shown in the past that they can win and play great offense without premiere RBs, so Lacy is basically a luxury.
They can win and play great offense without a premiere RB, but they're also evidence that, on the margins, RB is an important position.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:56 PM    (permalink
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see, this is where you lose me. Just because HB = low position value, does not mean you should never spend a high pick on a back. There are plenty of backs whose talent and impact make them worth a 1st round pick. There are sometimes teams who have the right pieces in place, and getting a high-impact running back can make all the difference. Usually teams that arent very good and feel they need a running back and reach for one tend to get burned, b/c its hard to build a team around a running back. But if you have a QB, you have an OL in place, your defense is solid, your ground game is lacking, and there is a back you really like available early, of course you should take him.
This "one player away" mentality is what turns good teams into bad teams over the course of a few years.

Even the best team will be *better off* picking any other position than RB. No team is "one player away" in the NFL. Every team is a few injuries away from regressing back to the middle of the pack. Thus, even the most "stacked" roster needs to be replenished with high-value positions year after year. The minute you begin to waste high picks on RBs, your roster depth begins to diminish and your team will suffer in the near future.


Look at the Giants, who wasted a first round pick on David Wilson in 2012.

That 1st round pick could have been a DE like Vinny Curry, who has shown elite ability in limited snaps and I think would be a great fit as a DE on their line to replace someone like Tuck.

Or that pick could have been Keleche Osemele, who would bolster that OL and give it an infusion of youth and talent.


Of course, this is hindsight with regard to these specific players, but you at least have a *chance* to hit on someone that will help you when injuries and age take a toll on your OL and DL. When you select David Wilson, you are just condemning yourself to mediocrity.

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Old 10-23-2013, 02:09 PM    (permalink
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Todd Gurley says Hi.

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Old 10-23-2013, 02:27 PM    (permalink
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Old 10-23-2013, 02:30 PM    (permalink
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Todd Gurley says Hi.

The team that wastes a first round pick on this guy will be worse for it in the future.


I literally wouldn't spend a first round pick on Jim Brown.
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Old 10-23-2013, 02:44 PM    (permalink
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Buffalo? CJ Spiller was their high first round pick in 2010 and what has he done for their offense? Hmm, not much. Again, their offense depends on how good their QB is. Ej Manuel might be the right guy, and he might not, but CJ Spiller will have little to no impact on how good this team is in the future.
Am I missing something?
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