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Old 10-23-2013, 03:56 PM    (permalink
BallerT1215
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CJ Spiller is very important to our success in the future.
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Old 10-23-2013, 04:18 PM    (permalink
niel89
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I agree to a point. I'm not going to reach on a guy just because I need a RB. That's how you end up with Ryan Matthews. But I think a guy like Ray Rice in the second was well worth the pick. He has been vital to the Ravens success throughout the past few years. Quarterbacks are clearly the most crucial factor for wins and losses, but great running backs cam and do make a difference. Just because AD didn't carry the Vikings to the super bowl doesn't mean he is worthless. It is really ******* hard to win a Super Bowl and only one team a year wins.

All that being said. I still spend a top 10 pick on AD/Reggie Bush/McFadden. They looked like big time players as prospects to me.
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Old 10-23-2013, 04:27 PM    (permalink
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16 of the top 20 rushers of all time, in terms of yards, have been 1st rounders, 13 of which were top 10 picks. 8 of the top 10 rushing seasons of all time were by 1st round picks, 7 of which were top 10 picks. 7 of the top 10 active leaders in rushing yards are 1st round picks. 5 of the top 10 rushers of 2012 were 1st round picks. I think the idea that you should "never" spend a high draft pick on a RB is a bit overblown. People have said the same things about QBs and WRs, too. But the bottom line is that even though there have been great QBs, RBs, and WRs found in the later rounds, most of the all time greats have been high draft picks.
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Old 10-23-2013, 04:31 PM    (permalink
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This "one player away" mentality is what turns good teams into bad teams over the course of a few years.

Even the best team will be *better off* picking any other position than RB. No team is "one player away" in the NFL. Every team is a few injuries away from regressing back to the middle of the pack. Thus, even the most "stacked" roster needs to be replenished with high-value positions year after year. The minute you begin to waste high picks on RBs, your roster depth begins to diminish and your team will suffer in the near future.


Look at the Giants, who wasted a first round pick on David Wilson in 2012.

That 1st round pick could have been a DE like Vinny Curry, who has shown elite ability in limited snaps and I think would be a great fit as a DE on their line to replace someone like Tuck.

Or that pick could have been Keleche Osemele, who would bolster that OL and give it an infusion of youth and talent.


Of course, this is hindsight with regard to these specific players, but you at least have a *chance* to hit on someone that will help you when injuries and age take a toll on your OL and DL. When you select David Wilson, you are just condemning yourself to mediocrity.
Okay, David Wilson was a bad pick, but not because he was a running back, but because he cant hold onto the football and now cant stay healthy. you love to play the "coulda drafted" game, but what if the Giants had spent that first round pick on Doug Baldwin, who went one pick before Wilson...Martin might be wasting away in Tampa, but imagine how much different that Giant offense would look if they had a solid back like Martin. The lack of a quality runner has had a devastating effect on their season this year, they were right to try to adress the position early in the draft. Of course they made a mistake in choosing Wilson to be that guy.

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Old 10-23-2013, 04:33 PM    (permalink
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the real question is how come acheten has not been offered a GM job yet
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Old 10-23-2013, 04:37 PM    (permalink
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These two made me laugh out loud.
It's never good when you make a point so ridiculous that Cudders feels compelled to make a one sentence post.
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Old 10-23-2013, 04:38 PM    (permalink
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of the top 20 rushers in the NFL, only 3 were not picked in the first 3 rounds...Arian Foster, Bilal Powell, and Fred Jackson. The rest required early round investments. Most of the high quality backs I can think of were picked relatively early, and there are plenty of teams who have used early round picks on backs and been succesful. And they dont even need to be great players... Look at someone like Joseph Addai, they had a good team, they knew they needed a back, so they drafted one early, and even though he never became a great player, he gave them what they needed at the HB position and they were successful. they coulda picked some guy in the mid-late rounds, but theres a higher chance he wouldnt have been able to handle the starting job.

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Old 10-23-2013, 04:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
Look at the Giants, who wasted a first round pick on David Wilson in 2012.

That 1st round pick could have been a DE like Vinny Curry, who has shown elite ability in limited snaps and I think would be a great fit as a DE on their line to replace someone like Tuck.

Or that pick could have been Keleche Osemele, who would bolster that OL and give it an infusion of youth and talent.


Of course, this is hindsight with regard to these specific players, but you at least have a *chance* to hit on someone that will help you when injuries and age take a toll on your OL and DL. When you select David Wilson, you are just condemning yourself to mediocrity.
I have an eerie feeling, that weŽll soon see a "Vinny Curry is a better and more productive pass rusher than Mario Williams/Jared Allen/Julius Peppers" thread in the pro football forum...
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Old 10-23-2013, 05:09 PM    (permalink
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You know what's more frustrating? People overvaluing draft picks in the first round. It feels like some people on this forum think the 32nd pick is worth twice as much as the 33rd pick just because it was in the first round.

Most of the examples given in the first post are pretty bad examples in my opinion.


Marshawn Lynch obviously was a first round pick before he went to Seattle. If he hadn't been such a screw up OFF the field, there would be no way a team could have acquired a talent like him for as cheap as Seattle did. They got lucky - and not because Marshawn is so good, but because he's been surprisingly quiet when he's NOT playing. Most people would have predicted multiple suspensions from the league and probably out of the league by now.

Knowshon Moreno - He puts up great numbers and he's not the focal point of his offense - basically everything you want out a running back in "today's NFL". I don't understand how they can be winning in "spite" of him, that would imply that he's hurting the team. Would they be winning without Knowshon? Sure, but they're not winning in "spite" of him.

Jamaal Charles - The thing about that 2008 draft is that Jamaal Charles was the best player the Chiefs got out of it. If the draft was done over again, They wouldn't have drafted Glenn Dorsey ahead of Charles. There was no magical curse that got lifted just because was drafted in the 3rd round. He's a first round talent that every NFL scout missed out on (including the Chiefs, because they waited 2 rounds longer than they should have). He ended up being REALLY good value for the Chiefs, but that is all.

Frank Gore - This guy would have been the first overall pick if he had stayed healthy in college. He tore through an ACL after his freshman year. The fact that he was drafted in the 3rd round is a testament to how talented he is. Frank Gore is not some random JAG picked up in the 3rd. He was a risk, sure, but every knew he was extremely talented.

Saints - you win on this one. Pierre and Sproles were already doing the job the Saints wanted, drafting Ingram was a pretty silly move.

Indy - This one is tough to argue. I don't think Trent is a valuable piece of this offense, but it might be to early to tell. Either way, Trent was a bad pick for the Browns not Indy. Indy is likely going to end up giving the 21 or so pick away at WORST (with the way they're playing it wouldn't be unrealistic for them to end up giving away the 32nd pick :P). It was a risky move by Indy but this team is one of the few teams that I believe actually SHOULD be spending their resources on a RB. Their offense is actually built around the run. When they don't run much (like against the Chargers) they lose, and when they run a ton (like against the Broncos) they win.

Green Bay - you already conceded this one. He's a talented player that was drafted high because that's what it takes to ensure he is on your team. Was it a luxury? maybe. But it's a luxury that worked out for them so far (though again this is so early in his career it's almost silly to talk about it).

At the end of the day, a Running back is going to still get 15-20+ carries for most teams. That is a lot of ball time to trust just anybody with. To put it this way, Reggie Bush touched the ball more than TWICE as much as Calvin Johnson in last week's game. No one in the sport of football believes Bush is more talented than Calvin, but you still have to run the ball sometimes and that still warrants drafting a RB at some point. If the entire league is drafting offensive tackles, quarterbacks and defensive linemen in the first round then sure go ahead and wait till round 2 or 3 for the talented running back because he will still be there.

But if you could GUARANTEE the production of Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch or even Frank Gore - you bet every GM / Coach would give up their first round pick for that.
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Old 10-23-2013, 05:17 PM    (permalink
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I think the most obvious take away is that it's easier to roll with a j.a.g. at RB than most other skill positions. A lot of good teams have no name MLB and are good but that doesn't make Ray Lewis or Patrick Willis not valuable. There are a few special running backs who are worth top picks and also a lot that get pushed up by need for no good reason.

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I have an eerie feeling, that weŽll soon see a "Vinny Curry is a better and more productive pass rusher than Mario Williams/Jared Allen/Julius Peppers" thread in the pro football forum...
Brandon Graham we hardly knew ye. 1 sack in 7 games is not efficient.
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Old 10-23-2013, 05:43 PM    (permalink
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I'd think of this a little differently: Pure running RBs probably are not worth a high first round pick anymore, more in the Beanie Wells/CJ range for me. I probably would spend a high pick on a RB if he shows that he can block and/or catch passes well, even if he's not quite a between the seams RB.

Back in 2006, I'd probably take Deangelo Williams over Reggie Bush, Power/workhorse RBs were pretty dang important back then (Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, LDT, SJ, etc). Now? I'd probably take Bush with a top 5 pick. Imagine Bush if he was a rookie entering this kind of NFL (especially considering what a threat he was then)?

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Old 10-23-2013, 05:44 PM    (permalink
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Old 10-23-2013, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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Back in 2006, I'd probably take Deangelo Williams over Reggie Bush, Power/workhorse RBs were pretty dang important back then (Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, LDT, SJ, etc). Now? I'd probably take Bush with a top 5 pick. Imagine Bush if he was a rookie entering this kind of NFL (especially considering what a threat he was then)?
I'd have taken Bush over Williams in 2006, and I wouldn't take Bush top-5 now. Most likely. I think he's a good player who you can't really feed it to. Premium skill players should be feeders. Calvin Johnson and AJ Green, you can throw it to them all game. Marshawn Lynch and AP, you can hand the ball to them over and over again and expect results. While Bush has certainly improved between the tackles, his strength is still as a perimeter player, but as a running back he's usually lined up in the middle of the offense, which means that his strength is getting defenders out of position; Reggie's not going to truck anybody in the middle of the field, but if a linebacker is chasing him to the flat, Detroit is smiling.

Marshawn and AP are good on the perimeter, too, but what makes them really special is their ability to dominate in the center of the field in addition to their ability to play in space. I mean, look no farther than Marshawn trucking Darnell Dockett last week. Elite players, in my eyes, are players who dominate their primary positions and it's what makes Reggie Bush a really nice player to have, but not an elite player. Wide receivers are perimeter players; they play on the outsides of the field, primarily, and an elite player (meaning top-5 pick prospect), like Calvin Johnson, is someone who needs to dominate in the perimeter. He can make catches inside, but he's really got to be able to dominate a cornerback individually. Maybe the comparison for this is someone like Sanu, or maybe Marques Colston, guys who are steady chain-movers and can catch well over the middle and while getting jostled, but lack breakaway ability.

I think when people are talking about running backs being fungible, they're just thinking, essentially, that it's not necessarily that hard to find someone who can hit creases and pick up 4 or 5 yards consistently and bigger runs when they're there, but anyone who can dominate their positional place on the field warrants a premium pick, because it focuses where defense have to spend their resources and allows lesser players to have more success; when you have a running back who requires a defense to stack the box because he's so good at breaking tackles, you're dictating man coverage on the outside. You're making your opponent play the way you want them to play you. If you're talking about a guy like Giovani Bernard or Reggie Bush, you're talking about a guy who might have some nice stats, but he's really a player who takes advantages of weaknesses; they're both versatile players who can make defenders miss on the perimeter but aren't going to churn for yards through the front 7. Both of them also have dominating wideouts on the outside who require more attention from defenses, and when receivers require more attention, it's easier to predict where weak spots are going to be in the defense, and it's easier to get your tier-2 player (Bush, Bernard) in a place on the field where the situation suits their skillset - particularly, where a defender is coming at them but there's room to work because the defense is more focused on defending another player. The inverse is also true; in Seattle, our receivers are often allowed to run deep downfield against single coverage because teams have to focus so much on defending the run; it makes it easier for our offense to have a player like Marshawn, and although this style is less common, it warrants keeping the talent level at RB high and investing premium picks, such as taking Christine Michael at the end of the second although he wasn't a need.

The Seahawks have a really good draft strategy. They have a strong team philosophy and know the kind of players they need, and draft them where they can get them. I think most teams have a similar philosophy, although I don't follow them as closely; teams know what a player like Marshawn or AP will do for their team. They know a running back like that, combined with a commitment to a running attack, will make passing easier. They also know that having a receiver who demands double coverage is lightening the burden for a running back; teams with great passing attacks don't need elite runners, and those are the teams that can maintain a policy to draft them later, for the most part, and be fine. But you can't just say that the NFL is changing and RBs are becoming less valuable. It may be true for many teams, but the value is always a product of who's available and how many teams want them. So you might have a running back who's a legitimate first round talent, but what you're saying is 4 teams want him really bad. There's no objective stock value for draft prospects; it's about which teams want him, and how those teams assess other teams and a relation between how bad the one team wants the player and how bad they think the others want him. That's what determines where a player gets drafted.

The whole notion that running backs, as a whole position group, through the whole league, are no longer worth being picked in the first round is incredibly obtuse and frankly sounds like someone who thinks they know about football because they play Madden a lot. First round picks aren't sacred; they're useful, and teams use them in a way that suits their best interests, not in accordance with some fictional draft-pick-value exchange rate. A draft pick has no value in itself; it's just a team's turn to pick whatever player they want, and it's stupid to say that no running back should "ever" be picked high.
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Old 10-23-2013, 08:32 PM    (permalink
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I'm one on the side of that you can find RB's later in the draft. But I also think that if you find a special one you must take them even if it's in the top 5.

All these people taking trash about AP are the same people saying how big of a beast he was last year. It's not AP's fault just like it wasn't Berry Sanders fault that their teams haven't put rosters around them that can win.

Saw someone saw give me Revis over AP back in 2007. Well Revis is on a 0-6 team right now. Or lets talk about Calvin Johnson. He's been to the playoffs once hasn't one a playoff game and was on a team that went 0-16. Or Joe Thomas, the best LT in the game. Hasn't even to the playoffs. Hasn't been on a good football team yet.

All these guys could be HOFers. AP, Revis, Calvin, Thomas. And they haven't done nothing to win a SB.

It's not about drafting a RB high or a CB high or LT or WR. It's about having a QB. Building a roster around your good QB. That's how you win. If I'm drafting AP at 7 I'm a happy camper. You could have been a Falcons back in 2007 and drafted Jamaal Anderson one pick after AP.
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Old 10-23-2013, 09:08 PM    (permalink
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if you're drafting AD at #7 instead of addressing a deplorable QB situation, you're making a horrendous selection.

i can't wait for someone to post like, jamarcus russell and act like it's a relevant counter example.
Please let me know back in 2007 what QB should Minny have taken at 7?
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Old 10-23-2013, 09:27 PM    (permalink
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i don't believe anyone has yet advocated taking LTs or WRs that high, either.
It's implied. Is the first round for quarterbacks only now?

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none of those guys are currently HOFers.
irrelvant to the point he's making, which I think you're intentionally missing.

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if you're drafting AD at #7 instead of addressing a deplorable QB situation, you're making a horrendous selection.

i can't wait for someone to post like, jamarcus russell and act like it's a relevant counter example.
Except that it totally is. You're just a sophisticated troll, njx9. Having a deplorable situation doesn't mean there's a quarterback worth your pick, and teams use the draft to build teams over time. If you don't have a QB and you're choosing between AP and, hell... Bridgewater. Sure, take the QB. But JaMarcus is a classic example of a team taking the quarterback when they should've drafted Calvin Johnson. They could've had the Matt Stafford-CJ combo that the Lions currently have. They surely could've had Flacco if you're interested in the counterfactual route, which, really, I'm not and the rest of this post should make that clear.

You can look at the 2011 draft when several teams' war rooms apparently said, "**** it, we're going quarterback," and you've got Tennessee (so far), Jax and Minneapolis still trying to figure out their quarterback situations while they could've drafted more talented players in the meantime. Drafting is about knowing what your teams needs, having a long (multi-year) plan for developing talent, and being able to identify talent later in the draft and cultivate it over time. It's not about being lucky enough to have a first round pick and the option of drafting a quarterback prospect the pundits like. There are plenty of recent examples who are like JaMarcus Russell. Mark Sanchez was a "need" quarterback, Josh Freeman was a "need" pick, Sam Bradford was a "need" pick, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder were "need" picks, and they've all been utterly underwhelming. Sure, their teams needed "franchise quarterbacks" but the teams that drafted those guys were wishing on a star.

And I'm not just being revisionist. I didn't like any of those guys as top prospects. If you look at the best teams in the league, you see teams that have developed their own players and been creative with assembling their teams; they're active in the process, not just lucky enough to have a high pick with a good QB on the board.

Denver: signed a blue chip free agent at QB to add to a stacked receiving corps.
Seattle: added a third round pick to a very strong (mostly homegrown) team
New Orleans: free agent signing + perfect coach/system
San Francisco: second round athlete prospect taken after the "franchise" prospects were taken
Kansas City: signed a good-not-great free agent to a stacked homegrown team
New England: lucked into a GOAT
Indianapolis: lucked into Luck

You look at the best teams in the league - the ones who are going to be contending for the Super Bowl this year - and ONE has a quarterback it picked in the first round. Indianapolis, who had the easiest #1 choice of all time last year. These teams are not competitive because they had the opportunity to draft their "franchise quarterback" and took it; they're good because their staffs know their respective teams and their teams' strategies inside and out, are always on the lookout for players that can improve their competitiveness, and do a good job of bringing in fresh talent and managing their rosters.

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Old 10-23-2013, 09:30 PM    (permalink
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ah, you want to play the hindsight game. because that's always productive. cool. if they'd taken aaron rodgers in 2005, they probably wouldn't have been in position to take adrian peterson in 2007. oh? now you think this is a ridiculous, stupid game? cool, i agree.
What are you talking about man? You said if they're drafting AP over a QB in 2007 " you're making a horrendous selection ". All I'm asking you to do is tell me what QB in the 2007 draft would you want them to draft at 7?

Not a hindsight game. Look at the players in that draft. Not much their for the QB's. So if you can't " Fix " your QB problem in the draft why not take what some might say is the best RB ever to play when it's all said n' done.

I don't know if drafting a player like AP is " making a horrendous selection "
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Old 10-23-2013, 10:00 PM    (permalink
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edit: whatever, i'm just a troll. why bother posting response to anything else?
Why don't you just address what people are trying to say instead of attacking the worst parts of their writing or mocking them for missing your points? Look for what they're trying to say? Help them understand what you're saying? You're smart enough; help the discussion flow instead of just rolling your eyes and trying to prove how witty-yet-aloof you are in every post.
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Old 10-23-2013, 10:11 PM    (permalink
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Why don't you just address what people are trying to say instead of attacking the worst parts of their writing or mocking them for missing your points? Look for what they're trying to say? Help them understand what you're saying? You're smart enough; help the discussion flow instead of just rolling your eyes and trying to prove how witty-yet-aloof you are in every post.
Thank you. I'm always up for a great football convo. But not when people toss around " you're making a horrendous selection " and when you ask why and how they say whatever.
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Old 10-23-2013, 11:16 PM    (permalink
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if you're drafting AD at #7 instead of addressing a deplorable QB situation, you're making a horrendous selection.

i can't wait for someone to post like, jamarcus russell and act like it's a relevant counter example.
need is important, but value trumps need in most cases. Unless you are sure the QB you are planning on picking over AP is of very high quality, that would be a bad decision. You get a chance to get one of the best runners of his era, you should draft him. No need to act like the QB situation can only be adressed with that pick. Theres plenty of 2nd round or later QBs who turn out good, and theres always FA and trades, where we have some teams find QB solutions.

What the Vikings did most recently (reaching on Christian Ponder b/c they had a deplorable QB situation they felt the need to address) was the horrendous decision. I actually always liked Ponder and am surprised with how bad hes turned out, but I also thought it was pretty obvious he was not worth a top 10 pick, and its the notion that you have get your franchise QB at all costs that causes those kind of picks. You take the best player available, as long as he can fit into your team. Of course if the Vikings already had a great running back in place, it wouldnt make sense for them to draft AP just b/c he is the BPA...But if you suck at QB and HB and Peterson and Ponder (who went in similar draft positions to same team to make it any easy comparison) are staring at you, its a pretty obvious choice. You get AP, and then you get another QB elsewhere. The quality gap b/w AP and whatever other HB you might be able to get and the difference b/w Ponder and whatever other QB you can get are not gonna be close.
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Old 10-23-2013, 11:26 PM    (permalink
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Never expend anything higher than a 3rd round pick on a RB, whether through trade or the draft.
Even though there is a nice pedigree of stud RB's coming out of the 2nd round. You'd also spend a 1st on one if he's by far the best player there and it's a huge need. It's not as if all the D lineman, O lineman, CB's and WR's all pan out in the 1st round so you can somehow rely on another position with certainty.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 10-23-2013, 11:32 PM    (permalink
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Sure, their teams needed "franchise quarterbacks" but the teams that drafted those guys were wishing on a star.
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Old 10-23-2013, 11:34 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't spend a top 15 pick on any RB but the rarest of prospects, but after that I'm ok with any position, as long as you get a good player. A lot of players in the second half of the first round don't live up to expectations. Once you get past the third round, it seems to become really hard to find anything better than average players and below. Go look at any 4th round from the past and see how many players amounted to little more than 'average joes'. It's better to get a good RB in the late first round than a bust lineman, QB or whatever.
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Old 10-23-2013, 11:46 PM    (permalink
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I think the best strategy is to try to draft good players, and try to not draft bad players.
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Old 10-23-2013, 11:51 PM    (permalink
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I think the best strategy is to try to draft good players, and try to not draft bad players.
Hot damn. We're on to something.
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