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Old 01-28-2014, 05:15 PM    (permalink
BuckNaked
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Default Should I Weep After Vikings Inevitably Take Derek Carr @ #8?

I'm already having nightmares and it's only January. Does anybody have anything to say that will help me sleep at night?
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Old 01-28-2014, 05:22 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckNaked View Post
I'm already having nightmares and it's only January. Does anybody have anything to say that will help me sleep at night?
I'm not a huge fan of him but he is very physically talented. Also while everyone points out that his numbers were inflated due to his system, which is true, I also feel that some of his bad games were the result of his offensive system failing him. I wouldn't want to draft him in the top 8 but I feel he's better than your average 2nd round Qb prospect. He'll almost certainly be better than Ponder.....
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Old 01-28-2014, 05:32 PM    (permalink
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Don't worry... we might grab him before you get a chance and I'll start weeping.
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Old 01-28-2014, 05:44 PM    (permalink
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That depends. How big of a fan are you of the short passing game?
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Old 01-28-2014, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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I absolutely hated Ponder as a prospect two years ago, thought he was hugely overrated and then way over-drafted. I pegged Ponder as a 3rd rounder... I see Carr as being a late first round value, but if you take him at #8 because your staff feels like he's the answer (and you trust your staff) then you live with it and hope for the best. He's got great tools, very good pedigree, and excellent work ethic. The work ethic, to me, is perhaps the most important aspect of being a good QB (beyond having decent tools).
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Old 01-28-2014, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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This is a good thread to post this in. Doesn't need it's own thread because it's very simple. Speaks to your Vikings, the 8th pick, Derek Carr, and the mistake of taking Christian Ponder.

I've read comparisons between this class and the 2011 class. Simply put, I don't think 2014 is close to that bad. This isn't some in depth statistical study, but I think it's still worth looking at and paints an important, overlooked, picture.

I scouted the four first-round non-Cam QBs in depth. I did not like any. I thought they would all bust. Dalton so far has kinda proved me wrong, mainly because he's worked his ass off to get his arm stronger (or my evaluation that his arm was too weak was way off).

I have left off Mallett and Kaepernick because I liked them both coming out of college and neither went in the first round.

Now let's operate under this crazy idea. Stay with me here. The idea that we want our college prospect to have had success and been a very good college quarterback - and that his stats, relative to other players in the past and his peers - do measure important things in the context of a football game. What we want are very good college QBs. If he's very good in college, he might be in the pros. If he's not... now stay with me here... if he's not that good in college (and his stats aren't that good), he probably won't be that good in the NFL. *GASP*

So, do these very elementary statistics suggest these QBs were very good in college?

Locker: 6.8 ypa 17/9 TD/INT
Gabbert: 6.7 ypa 16/9 TD/INT
Ponder: 6.8 ypa 20/8 TD/INT
Dalton: 9.0 ypa 27/6 TD/INT (in an extremely QB friendly system against bad MWC defenses on a 13-0 team - to be clear - these are not great stats all things considered)

No. No they don't.

Stats don't tell the whole story. And nowadays, these types of non-analytic, everyman stats are almost always IMMEDIATELY dismissed and discounted.

But I think they did a pretty good job of describing the QBs in that class. In fact, Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick had terrific stats and are now quality starting QBs on playoff teams, boasting similar games to their college stats.

I'm not suggesting that these stats are surefire ways to predict success. Or even that they are that important in a vacuum. I just think simple stats, with a little bit of context applied to subjectively adjust how they were attained (his conference, his supporting cast, his offensive system, etc.), can be useful in evaluating prospects, and possibly evaluating them CROSS-CLASS. I've never seen a table with just standard stats comparing classes! Why? I just love how simple it puts the 2011 QB class in its place. And the stats backed up our scouting reports - most of us did not like these very flawed QB prospects. But the simple stats were RARELY mentioned and are never mentioned in comparison to the other classes.

Now let's look at 2014:

Teddy Bridgewater: 9.3 ypa 31/4 TD/INT
Johnny Manziel: 9.59 37/13 TD/INT
Blake Bortles: 9.4 ypa 25/9 TD/INT
Derek Carr: 7.71 ypa 50/8 TD/INT
Jimmy Garoppolo: NOT EVEN WORTH POSTING LOL
Zach Mettenberger: 10.41 ypa 22/8 TD/INT
Brett Smith: 7.23 ypa 29/11 TD/INT
Aaron Murray: 8.86 ypa 26/9 TD/INT
A.J. McCarron: 9.12 ypa 28/7 TD/INT (and had a better JR year)
David Fales: 8.6 ypa 33/13 TD/INT
Tajh Boyd: 9.32 ypa 34/11 TD/INT

Dalton is the only QB who's stats even compare to those guys.

Compare Carr's numbers to Dalton's, in the same conference. Dalton threw for 27 TDs and Carr for 50! Yes, the ypa edge goes to Dalton but his ypa wasn't incredible - it was lower than 5 QBs on this list!

So if you lumped in the SR years of Gabbert, Ponder, and Locker, they'd be clearly be on the bottom of this list based on stats. I'm not saying they'd rank 12-14 as prospects. But where would they rank? It's an interesting thought. They were all pretty darn below average in college and the stats told us that beforehand! Their college performances, with stats as a report card, don't even compare to most on this list.

Basically, you could make a case that of the top 11 QB prospects in 2014, EVERY SINGLE ONE had better stats than the four 2011 QBs that went in the first round (minus Cam, who we all agree was on a different level).

In conclusion, I don't have a full opinion on Carr yet, but as a Viking fan you shouldn't let that familiar feeling completely get you down. You ARE NOT getting Christian Ponder again this year.

*I am not guaranteeing you find a franchise QB either. But I THINK the stats show that you have a better chance than you did in 2011.
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Old 01-28-2014, 06:35 PM    (permalink
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Mike Glennon was better than his big bro Sean Glennon.
I believe Derek Carr is a better QB than David.

Minny should feel happy knowing they selected the right Carr.
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Old 01-28-2014, 06:41 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Mike Glennon was better than his big bro Sean Glennon.
I believe Derek Carr is a better QB than David.

Minny should feel happy knowing they selected the right Carr.
If for no other reason than to learn from the mistakes of his brother. As a Buc fan, I prefer Sean Glennon over Mike. Derek doesn't have all the hype of his brother and likely won't have to go through the pressure and scrutiny of being a ridiculously high pick. David Carr wasn't BAD... he just wasn't great. He played a very very long time and perhaps he was ruined by the team around him...perhaps he never had it in him... either way, Derek apparently works his tail off and that's something to be excited about when you factor in his considerable skills.
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Old 01-28-2014, 06:43 PM    (permalink
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More likely it's Blake Bortles.
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Old 01-28-2014, 06:55 PM    (permalink
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When your top two receivers are Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson, it's important to have a quarterback who can get the ball quick out to the perimeter and has the arm strength to combat any conditions that may test him during Minnesota's fall/winter. If Carr were to be the Vikings' selection, I am confident Norv Turner would mold the offense to utilize his skill set and the strengths of the receivers best. As others have said, he's better than Ponder and I do think he's a top 10 talent.
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Old 01-28-2014, 07:07 PM    (permalink
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I'll give you Tony Romo for the #8 pick if you ask nicely.

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Old 01-28-2014, 07:10 PM    (permalink
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That's a great point. I forgot Norv was the OC.

A Norv/Zimmer duo could be perfect... if they get the right QB.

I'd be in favor of Minny just drafting exclusively QBs, DEs, and CBs. Just limit your board to those three positions. lol
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Old 01-28-2014, 08:04 PM    (permalink
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They need linebacker help pretty desparately too.
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Old 01-28-2014, 10:08 PM    (permalink
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Yes you should. I pity the team that drafts this guy to be there starter.
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Old 01-28-2014, 10:11 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckNaked View Post
I'm already having nightmares and it's only January. Does anybody have anything to say that will help me sleep at night?
Maybe you guys decide to go with Josh Freeman. ... *giggle*
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Old 01-28-2014, 11:21 PM    (permalink
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Carr has plenty of things that he needs to iron out, but I also think that Norv Turner is the right guy to coach him. When you look at the weapons that the Vikings have, Peterson, Patterson, Rudolph, Wright and Jennings are very potent, they just need a quarterback to put it together.
Most of his flaws are related to his mechanics, so it may be better if he doesn't play right away, but the physical talent is there, and he put in plenty of time in the film room during the senior bowl. I think that the Vikings are a good spot for him. I don't think he is top-10 worthy, but I would not be surprised if he gets pushed up thanks to a good senior bowl and the demand for quarterbacks.
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Old 01-28-2014, 11:22 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't touch Carr in the top 15, but late first round is relatively low risk. It's not the end of the world if a late first round pick doesn't pan out. It didn't kill the Broncos to use a late first on Tim Tebow. The Seahawks have played this entire season without their 2013 first round pick. Some team would be smart to try to get Carr in the late first. If the Vikings like him, they should see about trading back from 8 or trading up from the 2nd. That being said, he seems like a guy who will need time before developing into a quality starter. Do the Vikings really want to wait for a QB to develop while they have some talented guys in their prime. Another example of why they should trade AD.
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Old 01-28-2014, 11:45 PM    (permalink
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I'll weep with you. I do not want Derek Carr at #8.
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:45 AM    (permalink
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I think we need to see how the rest of the post season works out for him. All that short passing stuff is just rubbish to me, that is what his coaches wanted him to do and he carried it out pretty well.

He could indeed go #8 to the Vikings, trading back to where he is currently ranked won't work because some other team will inevitably take the risk, he might even go #5 to the Raiders if he does well at the Combine and/or his pro day.

There is always a risk if your drafted QB was the 4th one picked or isn't a top 5 prospect, but as Big Ben, Rodgers, Kap, and Wilson proved, teams can be completely wrong about prospects sometimes. No doubt a lot of GM's are concerned that he is a carbon copy of his brother and that might just be the thing that is driving down his value. We just won't know for sure until he's drafted and gets to play in the NFL.
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:48 AM    (permalink
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I wouldn't touch Carr in the top 15


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Old 01-29-2014, 06:28 AM    (permalink
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E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.E_Bird is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Mettenberger would be a great fit in a Norv Turner offense, and you can probably get him in the 2nd. I like him better than I do Carr.
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Old 01-29-2014, 08:34 AM    (permalink
markulous
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markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.markulous is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Better you than us.

I'm not sure he goes in the top 10. He has a lot of issues and isn't going to be a guy that comes out of the gates doing well.
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Old 01-29-2014, 09:50 AM    (permalink
Nastradamus
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That would be a pretty bad reach.
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Old 01-29-2014, 10:01 AM    (permalink
MassNole
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If the Vikings thought Ponder was awful they are in for a very rude awakening with a system QB from a non-AQ conference at the helm.
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Old 01-29-2014, 10:50 AM    (permalink
batsandgats
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just for fun
Jimmy Garoppolo 8.9 ypa 53/9 td/int
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