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Old 02-13-2014, 11:10 AM    (permalink
gpngc
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
Finding a pro-bowl defender is not limited to drafting one in the top 5. How many top 5 defenders does Seattle have? The last time they drafted a defender in the top 5 was Aaron Curry, the "can't miss defender" of the 2009 Draft. Every year people love to say things like "You can get a QB after the first round". I'd like to know what position you can't get after the first round. I wasn't aware that there's a rule against drafting DEs after round 1.
You are just proving my point. There are no exclusive rules to follow. The best course of action is to evaluate each situation and make decisions based on scouting and what you believe will happen in the future - not what has happened in the past in 100% entirely different situations. There is no one blueprint to win a championship. Pointing to past successes is a tiny part of the big picture. The key is to do all the work on each individual, assess each situation for itself, and make decisions from there.

I merely de-bunked a commonly thought rule with past results. You made up a rule I never said to follow then de-bunked that.

For the record, I am on neither side of this fence because I have not evaluated the QBs completely yet. I just fear that most of the people who are completely against Clowney at No. 1 aren't saying that based on the players involved, but instead because of a very myopic golden rule that severely limits how you go about using your draft picks AND depreciates the art of evaluating players.
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Old 02-13-2014, 11:11 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
Actually, a lot of people are.

Obviously not people who work for the NFL and are actually paid to predict the draft and are former scouts. Director of Personnel and GM's. Only draftniks challenge that fact and they hardly count.


Manziel is a huge risk. That's not even accounting for the fact that he's an entitled douchebag.

That's your opinion but again not obviously the opinion of those paid to predict the draft.

Some players are so obviously not NFL caliber QB's, and I dunno why people keep falling for some of them.
While there are failures among QB's drafted in the top 5, by far, most of them turnout to have great success and draftniks who criticized them generally turnout to be totally wrong.
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Old 02-13-2014, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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You are just proving my point. There are no exclusive rules to follow. The best course of action is to evaluate each situation and make decisions based on scouting and what you believe will happen in the future - not what has happened in the past in 100% entirely different situations. There is no one blueprint to win a championship. Pointing to past successes is a tiny part of the big picture. The key is to do all the work on each individual, assess each situation for itself, and make decisions from there.

I merely de-bunked a commonly thought rule with past results. You made up a rule I never said to follow then de-bunked that.

For the record, I am on neither side of this fence because I have not evaluated the QBs completely yet. I just fear that most of the people who are completely against Clowney at No. 1 aren't saying that based on the players involved, but instead because of a very myopic golden rule that severely limits how you go about using your draft picks AND depreciates the art of evaluating players.
There is already a total consensus by those paid by the NFL to predict the draft that at least 2 QB's are going to be drafted in the top 5 so applying the 'Golden Rule' seems quite appropriate to me. Nobody with any knowledge of the NFL would be calling for the 'Golden Rule' if it was clear that every QB this year is not a top 5 talent, just like no QB went top 5 last year. The fact that at this late stage in the process, you say, you haven't done your homework on QB's, really suggests that you opinion is then warped and carries little weight.
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Old 02-13-2014, 11:20 AM    (permalink
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A lot of those guys do less actual "work" looking at prospects than the draftniks you discount. It becomes apparent in there ridiculous predictions, and how they put outlandish things just to generate website hits.

These guys aren't paid to predict accurately, they are paid to generate website hits, and they do more to make sure that happens.

Anyway, Manziel is a hot topic, but he's not a good QB prospect, even if you don't mind that he's a little dickhead.

Watch when he doesn't go top 5, and we talk about his "Fall" in the draft, that's not a fall, because he has no business going that high.
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Old 02-13-2014, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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I'm all for scouting each player individually, but if there's a franchise QB and the Texans pass on him, they'll regret it. Having a great D-line and no QB play makes them the Buffalo Bills.
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Old 02-13-2014, 11:22 AM    (permalink
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Pretty sure the person who is considering all of the players rather than just 3 isn't the one who's opinion is warped.
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Old 02-13-2014, 11:31 AM    (permalink
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I'm all for scouting each player individually, but if there's a franchise QB and the Texans pass on him, they'll regret it. Having a great D-line and no QB play makes them the Buffalo Bills.
This pretty well sums up the argument even if some people just don't get it.
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:21 PM    (permalink
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I think Houston may well pass on a QB. Clowney is going to be #1 on every single board by the end of the process and the QBs are very questionable. I think they go Schaub and maybe bring in someone like Mccarron,Mallett,Cassell or Hoyer. Unless of course they truly grade someone out as worth the pick and aren't reaching for the next Jake Locker or Matt Leinart.
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:31 PM    (permalink
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Your right, wins does sell tickets as well, but Manziel merchandise sales will go through the roof adding millions to the team's revenue pool. Bridgewater won't come close to matching Manziel's sales. Also, it may still take 2 or 3 years for both teams to become winners and during that time, Manziel will sell a lot more tickets than Bridgewater. Remember, GM's get fired for 2 things, failure to win and failure to generate revenues, without wins, revenue will enable the GM to keep his job for a # of years and hence, Manziel has an appeal to both GM's and to both owners. The fact is that money/jobs often talks on draft day and Manziel can solve those problems for a worried GM.
I can't say that I really agree. If Manziel doesn't transition well and becomes a bust, while Bridgewater becomes a good QB, Manziel is not going to outproduce Bridgewater in ticket sales for 3 years. Fans have a short memory and it's a "win now" league.

Where's all the people clamoring over Tebow saying he will sell a ton of tickets? How well did that work out for the Jets?

Only time well tell who the better QB will be, but you don't move someone up your draft board because you think they will sell more tickets, you move them up based on talent, need, and how they fit your team, that's it.
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:36 PM    (permalink
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This pretty well sums up the argument even if some people just don't get it.
Everyone gets this. They just aren't sure if any of these guys are franchise QBs
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:36 PM    (permalink
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This pretty well sums up the argument even if some people just don't get it.
Everyone gets this. They just aren't sure if any of these guys are franchise QBs
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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If Brotles goes to the Raiders I will have a good cry.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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Clowney wants to run sub 4.5

around 4.45 or less

Thats crazy
Which would make his lack of sacks in 2013 even more disturbing, if Clowney is somehow able to run a sub 4.6 at the combine. Forget a sub 4.5...he's dreaming.
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:58 PM    (permalink
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If the Titans can get Matthews at #11, they should be doing backflips to the podium.
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Old 02-13-2014, 02:07 PM    (permalink
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Everyone gets this. They just aren't sure if any of these guys are franchise QBs
Is anybody ever "sure" about a QB prospect? The one thing that we can be sure about is that the chance of finding a franchise QB falls off dramatically as you get later into the draft. People can point out outliers like Wilson, Brees, and Brady but the statistics are overwhelmingly in favor of taking QBs early leading to success. Also with the rookie salary cap the huge financial burden of missing on a top pick no longer exists. If you have zero confidence in any of these QBs then by all means pass on them but planning to take a QB later in the draft is unlikely to work out.
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Old 02-13-2014, 02:21 PM    (permalink
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Is anybody ever "sure" about a QB prospect? The one thing that we can be sure about is that the chance of finding a franchise QB falls off dramatically as you get later into the draft. People can point out outliers like Wilson, Brees, and Brady but the statistics are overwhelmingly in favor of taking QBs early leading to success. Also with the rookie salary cap the huge financial burden of missing on a top pick no longer exists. If you have zero confidence in any of these QBs then by all means pass on them but planning to take a QB later in the draft is unlikely to work out.
I'm not saying you have to be sure, I'm just saying don't take a guy you grade as a 2nd rounder or late 1st rounder #1 overall. Taking Jake Locker over Robert QUinn buries you more than taking Mario Williams over Vince Young.
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Old 02-13-2014, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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I'm not saying you have to be sure, I'm just saying don't take a guy you grade as a 2nd rounder or late 1st rounder #1 overall. Taking Jake Locker over Robert QUinn buries you more than taking Mario Williams over Vince Young.
Agreed but what about everyone who passed up on Aaron Rodgers in 2005? Taking Ronnie Brown/Braylon Edwards over Aaron Rodgers was far worse than taking Jake Locker or even Blaine Gabbert over Robert Quinn.
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Old 02-13-2014, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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Taking Jake Locker over Robert QUinn buries you more than taking Mario Williams over Vince Young.
Really? What have the Rams accomplished with Quinn? Some nice Sportscenter highlights? Oh yeah, it would be devastating to pass on that...
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Old 02-13-2014, 03:24 PM    (permalink
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http://www.sports790.com/onair/the-p...raft-12063734/

According to Greg Cosell, there's no QB worth a top 10 pick.
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Old 02-13-2014, 03:45 PM    (permalink
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http://www.sports790.com/onair/the-p...raft-12063734/

According to Greg Cosell, there's no QB worth a top 10 pick.
I agree with the vast majority of his views on all 3 guys. Manziel's biggest weakness is certainly his anticipation. I think he exaggerated Manziel's lack of patience in the pocket. Sure he has a tendency to scramble more than you would like but there were certainly plays where he spent 5+ seconds in the pocket waiting for a play to develop. It's something that he's getting better at.

I've pushed Bortles down my board lately as he's really not that impressive when you get past his size and athleticism. His arm talent is worse than I originally thought and his mechanics are pretty bad at this point. I'd say he's a slightly better version of Jake Locker.

As far as I could tell he had nothing negative to say about Bridgewater aside from his size concerns. IMO there's no point in speculating about his measurements as we're going to get official measurements at the combine. If he's 6'1 190 then size will be a major concern but if he's 6'3 210 I don't see how he's not worth a top 10 pick.

Again he doesn't say anything I disagree in regards to strength/weaknesses but I disagree with his take on the QBs overall value. There's a difference between "not being a top 10 overall prospect" and "not being worth a top 10 pick".
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Old 02-13-2014, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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i do not know why Davis has Carolina taking a RB. that has to be the dumbest thing i have ever seen.
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Old 02-13-2014, 03:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Dacitykats View Post
i do not know why Davis has Carolina taking a RB. that has to be the dumbest thing i have ever seen.
Haha I didn't even notice that. You know what they need more than a WR? Another 1st round RB.
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Old 02-13-2014, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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Only time well tell who the better QB will be, but you don't move someone up your draft board because you think they will sell more tickets




Sometimes you do. Or do you think Tebow was the first time that happened?
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Old 02-13-2014, 04:27 PM    (permalink
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Revisionist historians will deny it, but people widely claimed Cam Newton was being pushed up boards.

"Panthers take Patrick Petersonz! Best player teh Draft!!!"

But people have conveniently forgotten about that one because it doesn't fit the annual "gotta take teh bestest player" arguments.
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Old 02-13-2014, 04:30 PM    (permalink
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I agree with the vast majority of his views on all 3 guys. Manziel's biggest weakness is certainly his anticipation. I think he exaggerated Manziel's lack of patience in the pocket. Sure he has a tendency to scramble more than you would like but there were certainly plays where he spent 5+ seconds in the pocket waiting for a play to develop. It's something that he's getting better at.

I've pushed Bortles down my board lately as he's really not that impressive when you get past his size and athleticism. His arm talent is worse than I originally thought and his mechanics are pretty bad at this point. I'd say he's a slightly better version of Jake Locker.

As far as I could tell he had nothing negative to say about Bridgewater aside from his size concerns. IMO there's no point in speculating about his measurements as we're going to get official measurements at the combine. If he's 6'1 190 then size will be a major concern but if he's 6'3 210 I don't see how he's not worth a top 10 pick.

Again he doesn't say anything I disagree in regards to strength/weaknesses but I disagree with his take on the QBs overall value. There's a difference between "not being a top 10 overall prospect" and "not being worth a top 10 pick".
I did notice this as well.

About his size though - he's going to be slightly over 6'1" at best and probably anywhere from 205-210. NFL teams will not like that. But one might. There's a slight chance he puts on a lot of weight and weighs in the 212-220 range, which is in his best interest.

But the problem with him is his frame. He's thin in the ankles and wrist and those are not good areas to be thin in.

I think size is generally overrated, but I completely understand the concerns of drafting a guy with BW's frame that high when jobs, millions of dollars and the fortunes of an entire franchise are at stake.

In his favor though, is that he's not really a runner and he's very smart. That can go a LONG way in preventing injuries.
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