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Old 02-13-2014, 09:35 PM    (permalink
E_Bird
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Originally Posted by worldtheofend View Post
You will have to excuse him, he makes some seriously insane posts.

The only Manziel is even close to Newton as a prospect is if he is 6'5 250lbs shredded with a howitzer for an arm (all while being able to run like he does no)

Any comparison of Manziel to Cam is utterly ridiculous
I didn't say they were similar players. They have different strengths.
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Old 02-13-2014, 11:38 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by worldtheofend View Post
You will have to excuse him, he makes some seriously insane posts.

The only Manziel is even close to Newton as a prospect is if he is 6'5 250lbs shredded with a howitzer for an arm (all while being able to run like he does no)

Any comparison of Manziel to Cam is utterly ridiculous
While I disagree pretty strongly with him saying that Manziel is in Cam's class as a prospect it's not as ridiculous as the claims that he'll be Tebow 2.0.

While I don't have the same grade on Manziel as E_Bird, I at least appreciate that he has an informed opinion and has clearly watched the games. The reason we have different grades on him comes down to our views on the QB position in general and not really differences in what we see on tape. I respect his opinion a hell of a lot more than the people who regurgitate the same dumb, lazy, and uniformed comments like "He doesn't have an NFL arm", "All he does is scramble", or "His bad attitude will cause him to fail in the NFL".
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:00 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by E_Bird View Post
I think Manziel is close to Newton as a prospect. Manziel has much better instincts and accuracy than Newton did. He has a much better understanding of the position than Newton did coming out of Auburn. Newton, though, is was just so physically talented that as long as he stayed/stays healthy and didn't implode mentally, he'd be a very good QB (at the least). I had him as the #1 player in that draft.

But as great as Von Miller, Aldon Smith, A. J. Green, and Patrick Peterson (could just list the first half of the first round - minus the other QB's) were, I don't think they were on Clowney's level as prospects.

So as much as I'd like to say that Houston should draft Manziel, I would go with Clowney.
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Cool dude. Noted.
If you'd like me to be more specific...

Cam Newton's size is leaps and bounds better than Manziel. Newton is basically the perfect size for a QB. Manziel is a few inches shorter than preferred and his skinny build is awful for his playing style. Newton also has a much better arm than Manziel. Manziel does not have great instincts at all. There are a lot of instances where an A&M receiver is wide open and Manziel just takes off running. There are also a ton of throws I've seen that are just completely idiotic. They sometimes worked out in college. But in the NFL they'll be picked off. They are nowhere close to being equal prospects.

As for taking Clowney if your the Texans, that is just dumb. The Rams have two very good defensive ends. How is that working out for them? Having a good pass rusher is nice. Probably the second most important piece. But taking Clowney over a QB is not getting the Texans back to the top of that division.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:05 AM    (permalink
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As for taking Clowney if your the Texans, that is just dumb. The Rams have two very good defensive ends. How is that working out for them?

Apparently better than the quarterback they drafted with a first overall pick.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:08 AM    (permalink
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A lot of those guys do less actual "work" looking at prospects than the draftniks you discount. It becomes apparent in there ridiculous predictions, and how they put outlandish things just to generate website hits.

These guys aren't paid to predict accurately, they are paid to generate website hits, and they do more to make sure that happens.

Anyway, Manziel is a hot topic, but he's not a good QB prospect, even if you don't mind that he's a little dickhead.

Watch when he doesn't go top 5, and we talk about his "Fall" in the draft, that's not a fall, because he has no business going that high.
Well, the Cleveland owner has made it clear he wants to draft Manziel so I think it is highly unlikely that he gets out of the top 5, after all he just fired 2 people who didn't want to draft Manziel.

I agree that posting hits is important to them but I believe their reputations are also an important item for them and I have found that they take their jobs pretty seriously and do exceptionally well on draft day. Even people like Scott adjust their ranking once these guys post theirs. I've seen people like Gil Brandt, who I'm sure has access to the Cowboy's board get as many as 29 first rounder correct, I don't think you'll find too many draftniks who can come close to those figures with any kind of consistency.

I do disagree with some of their ranking and seriously question their mocks, but I have found over time that they are very solid in who they suggest will be first rounders, of course, the Combine hasn't taken place as yet, so there are bound to be changes in their thinking and new players will move into round 1 as the post season process plays out and where in round 1, prospects will get drafted will change quite a bit.

Face it, these guys have exceptionally good access to NFL scouting personnel, Directors of Scouting and GM's, so they should be close to right on giving their ability to talk to these people, many of whom they previously worked with. They also have access to the prospects themselves and a great deal of pro type film. Finally, while hits play their part, they are paid by the NFL to predict the draft and they won't keep their jobs long if they don't come close to getting it right.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:30 AM    (permalink
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Apparently better than the quarterback they drafted with a first overall pick.
In what way? Because stats?
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:32 AM    (permalink
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In what way? Because stats?
Because of on the field performance or there lack of. One excelled at his position and one didn't.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:46 AM    (permalink
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Because of on the field performance or there lack of. One excelled at his position and one didn't.
And yet the Rams mostly go as Bradford goes. Having Quinn is a niece piece on defense, but the Rams still lose when their QB play is not good.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:56 AM    (permalink
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And yet the Rams mostly go as Bradford goes.
Considering the Rams have yet to record a winning record with Sam Bradford at quarterback, I could think of few arguments more damning to him.

I don't actually agree considering that the Rams went 3-4 with Bradford and 4-5 without him. And of course there is the offensive genius that is Brian Schottenheimer.
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Old 02-14-2014, 01:01 AM    (permalink
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Considering the Rams have yet to record a winning record with Sam Bradford at quarterback, I could think of few arguments more damning to him.

I don't actually agree considering that the Rams went 3-4 with Bradford and 4-5 without him. And of course there is the offensive genius that is Brian Schottenheimer.
They haven't had a winning season with Robert Quinn and Chris Long. Before drafting Bradford they were the worst team in football.
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Old 02-14-2014, 01:09 AM    (permalink
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Why Clowney does not go #1, look the current most dominant D Linemen in game today, Suh & Mario Williams, both play on losing teams and will continue to play on losing teams until the teams they play for get a TOP QB, like Manning, Luck, Brady, Brees, or Rodgers. Need to pick for the best QB in draft over any other position player.
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Old 02-14-2014, 01:25 AM    (permalink
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They haven't had a winning season with Robert Quinn and Chris Long.

Then it's a good thing I don't judge individual performance exclusively by team result.
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Old 02-14-2014, 01:29 AM    (permalink
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Why Clowney does not go #1, look the current most dominant D Linemen in game today, Suh & Mario Williams, both play on losing teams and will continue to play on losing teams until the teams they play for get a TOP QB, like Manning, Luck, Brady, Brees, or Rodgers. Need to pick for the best QB in draft over any other position player.
The only exception to that rule is that their must be a top 5 QB in the draft worth picking, otherwise teams have no choice but to pass on the position like they did last year.
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Old 02-14-2014, 01:33 AM    (permalink
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The only exception to that rule is that their must be a top 5 QB in the draft worth picking, otherwise teams have no choice but to pass on the position like they did last year.

I would there would be a second exception for teams that don't need a quarterback.
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Old 02-14-2014, 02:53 AM    (permalink
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Newton was not a slam dunk #1 by any stretch. He was considered a first rounder at the end of the season and climb a lot during the predraft process. There were plenty of people questioning his merits as a prospect. When draft time came around Newton was mostly considered the #1 QB but there was still debate for some and Newton still was not a lock for #1. Carolina could have honestly gone a couple different ways and it would not have been shocking.

I think Bridgewater gets the positional advantage over Clowney for the Texans pick but I have Clowney far and away the best player in this draft by far. I even like Bortles but there is no way I pass on talent like Clowney if I have something resembling a QB on my team.
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Old 02-14-2014, 05:18 AM    (permalink
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No way the Bucs take a sub-par 3-4 linebacker if Bortles is on the board.
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Old 02-14-2014, 06:21 AM    (permalink
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No way the Bucs take a sub-par 3-4 linebacker if Bortles is on the board.
You're already off Mike Glennon after a one year audition?? Damn man.
I give Mike at least a couple more seasons before I'm taking a 1st round QB to replace him.

If the Rams stay disciplined and don't start drooling over the shiny new toy in the draft(Clowney) they're going to loaded after this draft.

OLine should be fixed, more quality depth throughout the roster and a talent upgrade in the secondary.

If Bradford can start for 16 games, as a Rams fan I would be very disappointed if St. Louis doesn't win at least 10 games.
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Old 02-14-2014, 08:01 AM    (permalink
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While I disagree pretty strongly with him saying that Manziel is in Cam's class as a prospect it's not as ridiculous as the claims that he'll be Tebow 2.0.

While I don't have the same grade on Manziel as E_Bird, I at least appreciate that he has an informed opinion and has clearly watched the games. The reason we have different grades on him comes down to our views on the QB position in general and not really differences in what we see on tape. I respect his opinion a hell of a lot more than the people who regurgitate the same dumb, lazy, and uniformed comments like "He doesn't have an NFL arm", "All he does is scramble", or "His bad attitude will cause him to fail in the NFL".
Appreciate it, man, and I agree that it has more to do with what we're looking for in a QB than seeing completely different things. FWIW, I definitely enjoy the talks and don't mind differing. As long as the other person can articulate intelligent and informed opinions on a prospect, which you (and some other posters here) can and do, it's going to sharpen my views on that prospect, or it'll alter my views on a prospect. For me, that's the best. I get to re-watch the prospect through different lenses, with different focuses. I know that some people see it as a competition. "I'm going to be right, and you're going to be wrong." So they're afraid to change their views on a player. I'd rather be correct in the end than pretend to be correct throughout the process, so if I miss something on a player (for whatever reason), I'm good saying, "Hey, maybe you're right. I have this guy too high (or too low)." And I carry those discussions whenever I go to look at a new prospect. I think a lot of people forget that these NFL scouts and GM's aren't evaluating these guys in a vacuum. They're bouncing thoughts and ideas off of each other.

Anyway, that was a early-am rambling way of saying, this is a good site with quality posters, and I like that there are wide ranging views.
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Old 02-14-2014, 08:33 AM    (permalink
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Well, the Cleveland owner has made it clear he wants to draft Manziel so I think it is highly unlikely that he gets out of the top 5, after all he just fired 2 people who didn't want to draft Manziel.
Why do people keep saying this, I haven't read anything where Jimmy has any input on any of the players at all.
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Old 02-14-2014, 08:45 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
If you'd like me to be more specific...

Cam Newton's size is leaps and bounds better than Manziel. Newton is basically the perfect size for a QB. Manziel is a few inches shorter than preferred and his skinny build is awful for his playing style. Newton also has a much better arm than Manziel. Manziel does not have great instincts at all. There are a lot of instances where an A&M receiver is wide open and Manziel just takes off running. There are also a ton of throws I've seen that are just completely idiotic. They sometimes worked out in college. But in the NFL they'll be picked off. They are nowhere close to being equal prospects.

As for taking Clowney if your the Texans, that is just dumb. The Rams have two very good defensive ends. How is that working out for them? Having a good pass rusher is nice. Probably the second most important piece. But taking Clowney over a QB is not getting the Texans back to the top of that division.
They have different strengths. Every QB is going to miss open WR's here and then, but Manziel threatens D's at so many levels, because his instincts and vision are top-notch. His ball placement is also much better than Newton's. People remember the crazy play against Alabama, but the vast majority of his damage came from inside the pocket.

14:47 (1st QTR): Good throw to Evans' outside shoulder from opposite hash (27 yards from LOS).

13:45 (1st): Perfect throw to Evans' outside shoulder. Little separation (32 yards from LOS).

12:28 (1st): Recovers from miscue in backfield to find TE in EZ. Good poise.

8:26 (1st): Great throw to Evans' outside shoulder. Squeezes it in before Dix can help CB, and Evans doesn't break stride (23 yards from LOS).

4:45 (1st): Flushed to the right (not a case of leaving too early, imo) and hits Evans in the chest on scramble drill (21 yards from LOS). First significant play made outside pocket - 2 TD's already on the board.

- - - - -

Not going to do the whole game here, but I think it shows what Manziel is looking to do at the QB position. He's not the same guy from 2012 who is relying only on his legs to win him games. He'll use his legs as an additional weapon. I do agree that there are times he leaves before he should, but taking into account the strides he made in that area from 2012 to 2013, I can't view it as a concern - especially when he leads an SEC team to averaging 44.2 PPG, and that's with teams trying to keep the ball out of his hands. A&M gave up 2,890 rushing yards in 2013. Almost 3,000 yards! I think a lot of the more reckless plays came as a result of him viewing punts and TO's as more or less the same - given how awful their D was.

I view Manziel as the much more developed QB than Newton with superior intangibles and ball placement. For me, Newton's upside was always Big Ben with much more athletic ability (which would make him a great QB). I think he's getting there. He was never going to be the most precise QB. No one was ever going to call him a surgeon. Manziel has those capabilities.

As for Clowney instead of a QB. No one is denying that you need a QB to excel in the NFL. I don't think Houston is as close as everyone says they are, and a lot of their talent is old or often injured. Rather than throwing a QB in a situation where he has a small window, I would take the opportunity to get premium talent around the QB (offense or defense). And Clowney is a special talent. You can get a Mettenberger in the 2nd. If not for the injury, I'd have him right there with Bortles and maybe ahead of Bortles. I like that Seattle didn't rush the QB situation. They built up their team to the point where a young QB could have success while not having to win them games immediately. If Houston drafts a QB, he'll have to grow up fast, because their three best offensive weapons appear to be on the decline, and their D isn't good enough to carry a team. By drafting Clowney, you give your team D the opportunity to be good enough to protect a young QB - good enough to keep them in games.

That's just my take on those issues.
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Old 02-14-2014, 11:00 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by E_Bird View Post
They have different strengths. Every QB is going to miss open WR's here and then, but Manziel threatens D's at so many levels, because his instincts and vision are top-notch. His ball placement is also much better than Newton's. People remember the crazy play against Alabama, but the vast majority of his damage came from inside the pocket.

14:47 (1st QTR): Good throw to Evans' outside shoulder from opposite hash (27 yards from LOS).

13:45 (1st): Perfect throw to Evans' outside shoulder. Little separation (32 yards from LOS).

12:28 (1st): Recovers from miscue in backfield to find TE in EZ. Good poise.

8:26 (1st): Great throw to Evans' outside shoulder. Squeezes it in before Dix can help CB, and Evans doesn't break stride (23 yards from LOS).

4:45 (1st): Flushed to the right (not a case of leaving too early, imo) and hits Evans in the chest on scramble drill (21 yards from LOS). First significant play made outside pocket - 2 TD's already on the board.

- - - - -

Not going to do the whole game here, but I think it shows what Manziel is looking to do at the QB position. He's not the same guy from 2012 who is relying only on his legs to win him games. He'll use his legs as an additional weapon. I do agree that there are times he leaves before he should, but taking into account the strides he made in that area from 2012 to 2013, I can't view it as a concern - especially when he leads an SEC team to averaging 44.2 PPG, and that's with teams trying to keep the ball out of his hands. A&M gave up 2,890 rushing yards in 2013. Almost 3,000 yards! I think a lot of the more reckless plays came as a result of him viewing punts and TO's as more or less the same - given how awful their D was.

I view Manziel as the much more developed QB than Newton with superior intangibles and ball placement. For me, Newton's upside was always Big Ben with much more athletic ability (which would make him a great QB). I think he's getting there. He was never going to be the most precise QB. No one was ever going to call him a surgeon. Manziel has those capabilities.

As for Clowney instead of a QB. No one is denying that you need a QB to excel in the NFL. I don't think Houston is as close as everyone says they are, and a lot of their talent is old or often injured. Rather than throwing a QB in a situation where he has a small window, I would take the opportunity to get premium talent around the QB (offense or defense). And Clowney is a special talent. You can get a Mettenberger in the 2nd. If not for the injury, I'd have him right there with Bortles and maybe ahead of Bortles. I like that Seattle didn't rush the QB situation. They built up their team to the point where a young QB could have success while not having to win them games immediately. If Houston drafts a QB, he'll have to grow up fast, because their three best offensive weapons appear to be on the decline, and their D isn't good enough to carry a team. By drafting Clowney, you give your team D the opportunity to be good enough to protect a young QB - good enough to keep them in games.

That's just my take on those issues.
I have to disagree completely with your analysis. Indy was in a similar situation when they drafted Luck, many veteran players were released and they were in a rebuild situation and not likely to be competitive for awhile, but by drafting a true franchise QB, they were quickly able to rebuild and stay competitive.

If there is a true top 5 QB in a draft and your team needs one, you do not pass on that QB. Miami tried it with Long and passed on Ryan and look how that has turned out for them.

Taking Clowney might get you to 7-8 or 8-8 but with that record you will need exceptionally good luck to draft a franchise QB much later in the draft, since you won't be drafting anywhere near the top 5. The odds for success are truly small. If you look at Seattle, they got real lucky with Wilson, they, themselves didn't think he would become what he has, as they signed Flynn to be their QB for a large amount of money. Where Wilson was drafted there is lower than a 3% chance for success which just shows how lucky they were.

The simple truth is that you cannot really be consistently competitive in the NFL without a franchise QB and you do not pass on one when the opportunity presents itself, because you never know for sure when the next opportunity will arise. For example, Detroit waited 50 years for its next franchise QB, that is the risk.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:16 PM    (permalink
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If there is a true top 5 QB in a draft and your team needs one, you do not pass on that QB. Miami tried it with Long and passed on Ryan and look how that has turned out for them.

Taking Clowney might get you to 7-8 or 8-8 but with that record you will need exceptionally good luck to draft a franchise QB much later in the draft, since you won't be drafting anywhere near the top 5. The odds for success are truly small. If you look at Seattle, they got real lucky with Wilson, they, themselves didn't think he would become what he has, as they signed Flynn to be their QB for a large amount of money. Where Wilson was drafted there is lower than a 3% chance for success which just shows how lucky they were.

The simple truth is that you cannot really be consistently competitive in the NFL without a franchise QB and you do not pass on one when the opportunity presents itself, because you never know for sure when the next opportunity will arise. For example, Detroit waited 50 years for its next franchise QB, that is the risk.

1. I'm not sure now is the best time to cite Jake Long and Matt Ryan given where the Falcons are currently drafting. With Matt Ryan.

2. What you call luck, I call due diligence. The Seahawks have been spectacular at it drafting a number of quality players with later round picks. It is a massive part of what has made them a champion team.

3. Drafting a quarterback in the top five won't make them good. You draft them that high because you think they're already that good. You don't have to draft a quarterback in the top five because other quarterbacks that were drafted in the top five succeeded. If you do, you'll end up with a bust and years of your franchise wasted. Just like the Detroit Lions did with Joey Harrington before they drafted Stafford.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:34 PM    (permalink
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1. I'm not sure now is the best time to cite Jake Long and Matt Ryan given where the Falcons are currently drafting. With Matt Ryan.

2. What you call luck, I call due diligence. The Seahawks have been spectacular at it drafting a number of quality players with later round picks. It is a massive part of what has made them a champion team.

3. Drafting a quarterback in the top five won't make them good. You draft them that high because you think they're already that good. You don't have to draft a quarterback in the top five because other quarterbacks that were drafted in the top five succeeded. If you do, you'll end up with a bust and years of your franchise wasted. Just like the Detroit Lions did with Joey Harrington before they drafted Stafford.
1. There's no way the Dolphins wouldn't take Matt Ryan in hindsight.

2. Nobody is questioning the Seahawks' drafting ability. He's just pointing out that even the Seahawks weren't completely sold on Russell Wilson which is why they paid Matt Flynn a ton of money.

3. QBs get pushed up draft boards across the league so if you don't adjust your board accordingly you're never going to be able to draft a good one. The good QB prospects go early so if you're drafting 5th and you have a QB rated 10th it's stupid to pass on him as your team is going nowhere without a good QB and the chances of finding one after the 1st round are terrible. So take a top QB prospect in the top 5 to maximize your chances of it working out and then hope to hit on the rest of your picks as opposed to trying to hit the lottery on a bunch of 2nd and 3rd round QB prospects.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:57 PM    (permalink
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1. There's no way the Dolphins wouldn't take Matt Ryan in hindsight.

2. Nobody is questioning the Seahawks' drafting ability. He's just pointing out that even the Seahawks weren't completely sold on Russell Wilson which is why they paid Matt Flynn a ton of money.

3. QBs get pushed up draft boards across the league so if you don't adjust your board accordingly you're never going to be able to draft a good one. The good QB prospects go early so if you're drafting 5th and you have a QB rated 10th it's stupid to pass on him as your team is going nowhere without a good QB and the chances of finding one after the 1st round are terrible. So take a top QB prospect in the top 5 to maximize your chances of it working out and then hope to hit on the rest of your picks as opposed to trying to hit the lottery on a bunch of 2nd and 3rd round QB prospects.

1. Wouldn't argue that, just commenting about the whole "look how that worked out for the Dolphins" thing given the year Ryan just had.
2. Characterizing the Seahawks as 'luck' or 'flukes' seems from my perspective seems to be discounting their ability to draft a quality player with any pick.
3 Looking at the past few drafts, looking at the quarterbacks who seem to be getting "pushed up" the draft board, it looks like quite a few of them (Tannehill, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder) are failing spectacularly. Now, none of them were top 5 picks, but that's kind of my point. Each of them was 'a potential franchise QB', none of them were drafted in the top five and none have really succeeded as yet.
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Old 02-15-2014, 02:40 AM    (permalink
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For the Rams I would rank them

1. Daniel Jeremiah
2. Charles Davis
3. Bucky Brooks
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