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Old 02-27-2014, 01:23 PM    (permalink
jrdrylie
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I think voting Gonzo is an absolutely horrible idea. Even if you odn't believe him. There are three possibilities.

1. Gonzo is telling the truth and scotty is mafia. In that case, voting for scotty is the best option.
2. Gonzo is telling the truth and scotty is a miller. In that case, voting for scotty is the best option.
3. Gonzo is lying and scotty is good. In that case, we should vote for Gonzo.

So lynching scotty is the better choice 66% of the time. If Gonzo is lying, we lose a townie (which is what scotty claimed). We then come back and lynch Gonzo. If he is telling the truth and we lynch him, we kill scotty tomorrow. Would you rather risk a townie or an investigator?
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:24 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
Jesus christ. You make no sense JBalla. Ya, vote for the cop. Great call.
Sorry. Totally slipped up after typing your name too many times. I meant

Unvote: Gonzo

Vote: Scotty.
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Originally Posted by slightlyabroncosfan View Post
JBalla is mormon, so naturally he assumes that whenever you get one marriage done, another two or five are in the works.

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Old 02-27-2014, 01:25 PM    (permalink
jrdrylie
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A 4th option is Gonzo is sacrificing scotty for the mafia. Who cares, we still get a mafia member. There is no upside to voting Gonzo over scotty.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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I think voting Gonzo is an absolutely horrible idea. Even if you odn't believe him. There are three possibilities.

1. Gonzo is telling the truth and scotty is mafia. In that case, voting for scotty is the best option.
2. Gonzo is telling the truth and scotty is a miller. In that case, voting for scotty is the best option.
3. Gonzo is lying and scotty is good. In that case, we should vote for Gonzo.

So lynching scotty is the better choice 66% of the time. If Gonzo is lying, we lose a townie (which is what scotty claimed). We then come back and lynch Gonzo. If he is telling the truth and we lynch him, we kill scotty tomorrow. Would you rather risk a townie or an investigator?
I totally typed the wrong name and have fixed my vote. Sorry for the confusion. I agree with all of this.
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JBalla is mormon, so naturally he assumes that whenever you get one marriage done, another two or five are in the works.

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Old 02-27-2014, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
I think voting Gonzo is an absolutely horrible idea. Even if you odn't believe him. There are three possibilities.

1. Gonzo is telling the truth and scotty is mafia. In that case, voting for scotty is the best option.
2. Gonzo is telling the truth and scotty is a miller. In that case, voting for scotty is the best option.
3. Gonzo is lying and scotty is good. In that case, we should vote for Gonzo.

So lynching scotty is the better choice 66% of the time. If Gonzo is lying, we lose a townie (which is what scotty claimed). We then come back and lynch Gonzo. If he is telling the truth and we lynch him, we kill scotty tomorrow. Would you rather risk a townie or an investigator?
This is assuming the odds of each one being true is 33.3%.

I think it's much more likely that he's Mafia and it's just a ploy, than either of the other two being true.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:27 PM    (permalink
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Updated Vote Count:
CJ (1): Brodeur
Scotty (5): Gonzo, JR, Broth, jballa, UK

With 12 alive, 7 votes are needed for a lynch.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:29 PM    (permalink
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Eh I would like to hear from Scotty before I fully commit to a vote, but the statistics provided above do make it hard not to follow the train. I'll wait a little longer hoping he turns up
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:30 PM    (permalink
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THe worst case is the mafia has a role cop and scotty came back as a miller. Gonzo knows this. When scotty comes back as miller, he can say "yeah I led the lynch of a town guy but my investigation was good."
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:31 PM    (permalink
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JBalla, that vote right there has to be the dumbest ******* vote I have ever seen. Get a goddamn clue.

It is actually hilarious to me that people refuse to believe me every ******* game.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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FWIW, his explanation made it sound like he was going to vote for Scotty and then he voted Gonzo. I actually do think he's telling the truth when he said he screwed that part up.

That being said, he's still all over the place.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:34 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by UKfan View Post
Eh I would like to hear from Scotty before I fully commit to a vote, but the statistics provided above do make it hard not to follow the train. I'll wait a little longer hoping he turns up
Again, those statistics mean nothing.

It's like saying the Broncos play the Jaguars and instead of going for a Broncos win you go for Tie or Jaguars win, because there's a 66% chance of the last two happening.

That just isn't true.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Grizzlegom View Post
FWIW, his explanation made it sound like he was going to vote for Scotty and then he voted Gonzo. I actually do think he's telling the truth when he said he screwed that part up.

That being said, he's still all over the place.
Thanks Grizz. I really honestly did mess up.
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JBalla is mormon, so naturally he assumes that whenever you get one marriage done, another two or five are in the works.

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Old 02-27-2014, 01:36 PM    (permalink
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Ironic that Jballa is calling me an idiot...
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:37 PM    (permalink
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It is actually hilarious to me that people refuse to believe me every ******* game.
Hey, I believe you! I'm just trying to be a helpful stump and present all the options.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:39 PM    (permalink
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Ironic that Jballa is calling me an idiot...
Because I had one typo I ultimately fixed and apologized for?! Really? How dense are you?
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JBalla is mormon, so naturally he assumes that whenever you get one marriage done, another two or five are in the works.

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Old 02-27-2014, 01:41 PM    (permalink
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Because I had one typo I ultimately fixed and apologized for?! Really? How dense are you?
No, more just the way you play the game.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:42 PM    (permalink
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Is it just me or is SP's attitude rubbing anyone the wrong way?
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:42 PM    (permalink
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This makes me miss SP/GG duels.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:42 PM    (permalink
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Vote: Scotty

Let's hope you're right Gonzo!
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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1. Gonzo is lying and is mafia.
2. Gonzo is sacrificing scotty
3. Mafia has a role cop and scotty is a miller or other bad sounding role.
4. Gonzo is telling the truth and scotty is mafia.
5. Gonzo is telling the truth and scotty is a miller.
6. Gonzo is telling the truth but the mafia has a tailor and just so happened to tailor scotty the same night Gonzo investigated him.

Any other scenarios you see?
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Grizzlegom View Post
This makes me miss SP/GG duels.
GG...this name rings a bell lol.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:44 PM    (permalink
RufusMcDaniel
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RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.RufusMcDaniel is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Originally Posted by ImBrotherCain View Post
Is it just me or is SP's attitude rubbing anyone the wrong way?
I like it. He ain't backing down and he's taking names.

However, I won't like it when he turns his attention to me.
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:44 PM    (permalink
ImBrotherCain
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Originally Posted by Grizzlegom View Post
This makes me miss SP/GG duels.
SP has grown up before our eyes... :tear:
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:47 PM    (permalink
Grizzlegom
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Originally Posted by SuperPacker View Post
GG...this name rings a bell lol.
GallopingGhost! The youngest Baines brother!
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Old 02-27-2014, 01:47 PM    (permalink
jballa838
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Originally Posted by ImBrotherCain View Post
Is it just me or is SP's attitude rubbing anyone the wrong way?
Here's my take. I went at JR and JR disproved my allegations and our grudge hasn't hurt anyone at this point.

I go at SP all he does is come back at me in a personal manner using the same rationale I went for him in the first place. I did it logically and not in an attacking way, talking to the town. He gets all defensive and fires back at me all personally, trying to build this up like some grand feud.

Here's my official theory on SP. He's evil and the mafia will sacrifice him tonight to place the blame on me tomorrow, so they can get me out of the game. Everything he's done has screamed mafia, even down to the "Gonzo is doing a total mafia play right now" lines he's dropping. He's trying his best to position himself artificially as good and yet nobody is buying it.
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JBalla is mormon, so naturally he assumes that whenever you get one marriage done, another two or five are in the works.

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