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Old 05-20-2014, 09:37 AM    (permalink
phlysac
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Originally Posted by niel89 View Post
Boldin deep threat lol.

I do feel that the 49ers will be better on offense with those 3 WRs and a better run game. Gore isn't special so I expect him to lose carries as the year goes on.
I agree with almost everything you said, even mocking TebowFan. The bolded part tears at my soul and I struggle to understand why he seems to get so little respect on this forum.
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Old 05-20-2014, 11:46 AM    (permalink
niel89
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I absolutely love Gore but he just hasn't been that exceptional on the field any more. He is a solid starting back but he also had just an okay year last year and is 31 now.
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Old 05-20-2014, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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I agree with almost everything you said, even mocking TebowFan. The bolded part tears at my soul and I struggle to understand why he seems to get so little respect on this forum.
What is he really doing on the field that warrants such respect? He's an acceptable starting back in a league that has a bunch of them. Lesean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Jamaal Charles are special backs. The Frank Gore, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley, and Zach Stacy's of the world are not.
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Old 05-20-2014, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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Gore is 31 and platooning with Carlos Hyde should increase his per carry production and extend his career.

BTW, please don't say Alfred Morris is an average NFL starter.

Average RBs don't rush for over 2800 yards at 4.7 yards a pop and 20 total rushing TDs their first two seasons in the league.

Almo isn't physically gifted, but he's a top 10 RB IMO in the league.

Most RBs aren't among the tops at their position once they hit their 30s.

Put it this way, there isn't a better 30+ year old RB in the pros than Frank Gore.lol
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Old 05-20-2014, 04:58 PM    (permalink
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people are way overrating the contribution of sproles to the saints. pivotal receiving first downs were almost always pierre thomas. With PT and Khiry Robinson (and possibly ingram if he takes another step) the saints offense will be better balanced and way more importantly, less predictable.

Now the OLine does have a few steps to take so having the saints as a top 3 offense is a bit much for me. The output will be there in yards and points most likely but thats also the result of the pace and the aggressiveness.

my top 3

1 Denver
2 Green Bay
3 Philly (if foles plays like he did last season)
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Old 05-20-2014, 05:45 PM    (permalink
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Gore is 31 and platooning with Carlos Hyde should increase his per carry production and extend his career.

BTW, please don't say Alfred Morris is an average NFL starter.

Average RBs don't rush for over 2800 yards at 4.7 yards a pop and 20 total rushing TDs their first two seasons in the league.

Almo isn't physically gifted, but he's a top 10 RB IMO in the league.

Most RBs aren't among the tops at their position once they hit their 30s.

Put it this way, there isn't a better 30+ year old RB in the pros than Frank Gore.lol
Here is the thing that kills me about all of these type conversations. In the eyes of fans there is no such thing as an average RB or QB. It always falls into one side of the spectrum, in the end you always end up with about 20 above average RB's and 12 awful ones. If you're going to have a distribution there needs to be a middle somewhere. It's because you watch these guys individually attempt to make plays 300ish times a season. At the end you always come away with an inflated sense of how good they are because they tend to stand out individually.

Alfred Morris finished 12th in yards from scrimmage this year among running backs, with 3 more backs within 100 yards. That's pretty average.

In the end people will slice and dice the data however they want to make it look more favorable to their guy, but ultimately there are some guys who will do it entirely on the ground, some who will do it through the air, some who will split it. There are some guys who will do it in 300 touches because their lines are good, and others who will do it in 330 because their lines suck. Whatever you want to call it, a 1300 yard APY back is a pretty much the standard for your 300 touch type guy.

It's funny that people get all bent out of shape when people say that Alfred Morris is average, but when people say Ryan Kerrigan is average nobody cares, despite the fact that their talent and contribuitions relative to their peers are pretty similar.

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Old 05-20-2014, 05:57 PM    (permalink
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1. Denver - Not sure how I can put them anywhere else after last season, Manning is a cyborg.

2. New Orleans - Drew Brees is also a cyborg. Tons of weapons returning, lethal in the dome.

3. Dallas - On paper they look like the most complete offense in the league, really good OL. However... Coaching? Romo's back? Bias?

4. Green Bay - Rodgers and McCarthy as a 1-2 rank with anyone. Somewhat unkown on the OL but I like what Nelson and Cobb bring to the table.

5. Philly - Wouldn't shock me if they took a hit and Foles comes back down to earth, but then again I've been a believer in Kelly from day 1 and they have tons of weapons to work with.

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Old 05-20-2014, 07:35 PM    (permalink
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I just can't buy tony romo and that staff pulling it off. Love what they've done to the OL and Murray's a stud, with Dez on the outside that's a nice set up but I just can't trust the trigger man and the guy calling the shots.
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Old 05-20-2014, 07:43 PM    (permalink
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What is he really doing on the field that warrants such respect? He's an acceptable starting back in a league that has a bunch of them. Lesean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Jamaal Charles are special backs. The Frank Gore, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley, and Zach Stacy's of the world are not.
He is pretty good in pass protection. Always has been. Not a quality that a lot of starting backs have.
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Old 05-20-2014, 08:11 PM    (permalink
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He is pretty good in pass protection. Always has been. Not a quality that a lot of starting backs have.
...also not the quality that makes someone a special starting back...
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Old 05-20-2014, 08:45 PM    (permalink
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I'd say my interpretation of "isn't special" is really the only issue. To me being Top-10 in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing TDs; as well as being ranked much higher in yards than in attempts per game, while over the age of 30 is pretty special.
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Old 05-20-2014, 08:48 PM    (permalink
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Here is the thing that kills me about all of these type conversations. In the eyes of fans there is no such thing as an average RB or QB. It always falls into one side of the spectrum, in the end you always end up with about 20 above average RB's and 12 awful ones. If you're going to have a distribution there needs to be a middle somewhere. It's because you watch these guys individually attempt to make plays 300ish times a season. At the end you always come away with an inflated sense of how good they are because they tend to stand out individually.

Alfred Morris finished 12th in yards from scrimmage this year among running backs, with 3 more backs within 100 yards. That's pretty average.

In the end people will slice and dice the data however they want to make it look more favorable to their guy, but ultimately there are some guys who will do it entirely on the ground, some who will do it through the air, some who will split it. There are some guys who will do it in 300 touches because their lines are good, and others who will do it in 330 because their lines suck. Whatever you want to call it, a 1300 yard APY back is a pretty much the standard for your 300 touch type guy.

It's funny that people get all bent out of shape when people say that Alfred Morris is average, but when people say Ryan Kerrigan is average nobody cares, despite the fact that their talent and contribuitions relative to their peers are pretty similar.

Funny thing about stats.

Alfred Morris was the 4th leading rusher in the NFL last year and the 2nd leading rusher in 2012 with over 1600 yards.

Morris had over 330 carries as a rookie and 275 in 2013. His yards dropped by his average per carry was still around 4.6. His ypc is more reflective of his ability as a RB and not the offensive scheme.

No he's not much of a receiving threat which is the only way you can downgrade him compared to the rest of the league RBs(yards from scrimmage), which you so cleverly did to avoid propping up his rushing numbers.

As a rusher, his stats say he's firmly in the top 5 in the league after two seasons in the NFL.

Comparing Almo's production as a RB to Ryan Kerrigan's as an OLB is ridiculous.

Kerrigan is solid, but Almo's better at his job than Kerrigan is at his.

I've always said that physically Alfred Morris is an 'average' RB.
But his production isn't.

Arian Foster is an 'average' RB from a measurables standpoint. But he's been one of the better RBs in the league for most of his career.

I think people get caught up in the fact that Morris isn't particularly quick of fast and extrapolate that to mean he's unproductive on Sundays.

Again, as a runner Almo's number say he's far from average.

Only a RB could be top 5 in rushing two years in a row and fans call him average.

A pass rusher or WR who's top five statistically in sacks or receiving yards respectively would never be called average.

It sucks having to defend Almo from critiques about his game since Jay Gruden may be trying to phase Morris out of the offense in favor of Seastrunk because he's a better receiver.

A RB's main job is still to able to do work between the tackles and on the edge when the QB hands off the ball to him.

In that regard Morris is handling his business.
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Old 05-20-2014, 08:50 PM    (permalink
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He is pretty good in pass protection. Always has been. Not a quality that a lot of starting backs have.
If makes you a special back then it does not take much.

Gore has had a solid career and been a solid player, but never was a elite back.
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Old 05-20-2014, 09:10 PM    (permalink
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I don't know if that's true. There was a time were he was one of the 4-6 best backs in the league, and that's starting become special/elite in my book.
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Old 05-20-2014, 10:43 PM    (permalink
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Funny thing about stats.

Alfred Morris was the 4th leading rusher in the NFL last year and the 2nd leading rusher in 2012 with over 1600 yards.

Morris had over 330 carries as a rookie and 275 in 2013. His yards dropped by his average per carry was still around 4.6. His ypc is more reflective of his ability as a RB and not the offensive scheme.

No he's not much of a receiving threat which is the only way you can downgrade him compared to the rest of the league RBs(yards from scrimmage), which you so cleverly did to avoid propping up his rushing numbers.

As a rusher, his stats say he's firmly in the top 5 in the league after two seasons in the NFL.

Comparing Almo's production as a RB to Ryan Kerrigan's as an OLB is ridiculous.

Kerrigan is solid, but Almo's better at his job than Kerrigan is at his.

I've always said that physically Alfred Morris is an 'average' RB.
But his production isn't.

Arian Foster is an 'average' RB from a measurables standpoint. But he's been one of the better RBs in the league for most of his career.

I think people get caught up in the fact that Morris isn't particularly quick of fast and extrapolate that to mean he's unproductive on Sundays.

Again, as a runner Almo's number say he's far from average.

Only a RB could be top 5 in rushing two years in a row and fans call him average.

A pass rusher or WR who's top five statistically in sacks or receiving yards respectively would never be called average.

It sucks having to defend Almo from critiques about his game since Jay Gruden may be trying to phase Morris out of the offense in favor of Seastrunk because he's a better receiver.

A RB's main job is still to able to do work between the tackles and on the edge when the QB hands off the ball to him.

In that regard Morris is handling his business.
Using rushing yards as a proxy of how good a RB is does not make sense in this case. Washington almost split their snaps evenly between Helu and Morris last year (547 to 611). The difference between this platoon and most others is that Morris took most of the carries 276 vs. 62 while Helu did most of the receiving and blocking.

Thus it's not a fair comparison to use rushing yards as the sole stat between other platoon players like Fred Jackson and Reggie Bush when those guys split their roles evenly with CJ Spiller and Joique Bell. At the end of the day all of the backs end up with 1200-1400 yards, in roughly the same amount of snaps, so why do Morris's rushing yards count more than the combined rushing and receiving yards from others, when he got more rushing yards simply by having more of opportunities as a result of his role.

Yards from scrimmage is a way more inherently fair way to compare backs, and even that is not perfect. In a league where more than half the plays are passes, it would make sense to put some weight into contributions in the receiving game.
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Old 05-20-2014, 11:38 PM    (permalink
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...also not the quality that makes someone a special starting back...
But a must have trait for a guy to see the field more than a couple times a game for the team he plays for.
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Old 05-20-2014, 11:45 PM    (permalink
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1. Denver - Not sure how I can put them anywhere else after last season, Manning is a cyborg.

2. New Orleans - Drew Brees is also a cyborg. Tons of weapons returning, lethal in the dome.

3. Dallas - On paper they look like the most complete offense in the league, really good OL. However... Coaching? Romo's back? Bias?

4. Green Bay - Rodgers and McCarthy as a 1-2 rank with anyone. Somewhat unkown on the OL but I like what Nelson and Cobb bring to the table.

5. Philly - Wouldn't shock me if they took a hit and Foles comes back down to earth, but then again I've been a believer in Kelly from day 1 and they have tons of weapons to work with.

HM: Chicago, Detroit, San Diego, New England, Atlanta
I think Dallas lacking a legit #2 WR keeps them from being that high this year.
Other teams can afford to miss their #1 WR for a few games.
Dallas cannot.

And DeMarco Murray is due to miss time again this season. But while playing, he's fantastic.

BETTER than Frank Gore BTW.
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Old 05-20-2014, 11:48 PM    (permalink
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...also not the quality that makes someone a special starting back...
Depends on how you look at it. Maybe pass protection isn't that important to you. The question was what warrants respect. It could be a number of things. Pass protection isn't something a lot of backs can do well. To me it's a pretty special trait to have. In addition to other traits, which if we're talking about Gore, has shown the ability to possess. His vision in particular has always been solid.

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If makes you a special back then it does not take much.

Gore has had a solid career and been a solid player, but never was a elite back.
Yet you'd be surprised the amount of starting backs that aren't great pass protectors. Or aren't even in on a decent amount of pass plays left in to block because they can't do it well.

He was an All Pro in 2006. Gore has done pretty well for himself for the amount of stacked boxes he's constantly had to face in his career. He would have had a much better career if he didn't have to play on all those dreadful teams where he was essentially the best offensive player. Even Vernon Davis had his problems his first few years.
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Old 05-21-2014, 03:32 AM    (permalink
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Using rushing yards as a proxy of how good a RB is does not make sense in this case. Washington almost split their snaps evenly between Helu and Morris last year (547 to 611). The difference between this platoon and most others is that Morris took most of the carries 276 vs. 62 while Helu did most of the receiving and blocking.

Thus it's not a fair comparison to use rushing yards as the sole stat between other platoon players like Fred Jackson and Reggie Bush when those guys split their roles evenly with CJ Spiller and Joique Bell. At the end of the day all of the backs end up with 1200-1400 yards, in roughly the same amount of snaps, so why do Morris's rushing yards count more than the combined rushing and receiving yards from others, when he got more rushing yards simply by having more of opportunities as a result of his role.

Yards from scrimmage is a way more inherently fair way to compare backs, and even that is not perfect. In a league where more than half the plays are passes, it would make sense to put some weight into contributions in the receiving game.
The difference is Roy Helu is Alfred Morris' backup, they aren't splitting carries.
That would be like taking Adrian Peterson's total carries and rushing yards and comparing those to an offense that splits carries roughly even between two backs.

The bottom line production may be similar, but the two players versus one isn't the same at all.

All it means is that modern NFL teams can cobble together a productive rushing attack without a primary runner.

Most teams don't have a feature RB anymore because most RBs can't carry the load for an entire season.

Lesean McCoy and Bryce Brown had about the same carry breakdown as Helu and Morris; you wouldn't dare say that was a two-back system. Bryce Brown is Shady's backup. They weren't interchangeable.

You're using yards from scrimmage to diminish the value of pure rushing yards.

Shady McCoy was impactful as a receiver(@50 rec/500 yds), but it was his running ability from the LOS that drove that Philly offense.

I just don't subscribe to the idea that we define RBs by yards from scrimmage first and rushing yards 2nd.

Total impact on the game?? Yards from scrimmage is a fine metric.
Primary role in the offense?? Ability to run the ball cannot be overstated.

In fact I would say a RB's ability to block on passing downs is considered more important by NFL coaches than his ability to catch the football. RBs who can't block in the passing game rarely see the field.

AD has never been a major dual threat RB in the league. Does that make him a lesser RB??

By your logic, a WR's all purpose yards should carry more weight than his pure yards from only receiving.

If you want to argue that Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles and Shady McCoy are the three best RBs in the league because of their dual threat, fine.

But that's still a long way to go to say Alfred Morris has been an average NFL RB.
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Old 05-21-2014, 03:38 AM    (permalink
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I think Dallas lacking a legit #2 WR keeps them from being that high this year.
Other teams can afford to miss their #1 WR for a few games.
Dallas cannot.

And DeMarco Murray is due to miss time again this season. But while playing, he's fantastic.

BETTER than Frank Gore BTW.
Why do people sleep on Terrance Williams?? The kid is what makes Dallas' passing attack scary because he compliments Dez Bryant so well AND Williams is a true deep threat, maybe the Cowboys' fastest WR.


Demarco Murray is as physically talented as any RB in the league but it doesn't do him a lot of good if he's not on the field.
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Old 05-21-2014, 06:54 AM    (permalink
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The difference is Roy Helu is Alfred Morris' backup, they aren't splitting carries.
That would be like taking Adrian Peterson's total carries and rushing yards and comparing those to an offense that splits carries roughly even between two backs.

The bottom line production may be similar, but the two players versus one isn't the same at all.

All it means is that modern NFL teams can cobble together a productive rushing attack without a primary runner.

Most teams don't have a feature RB anymore because most RBs can't carry the load for an entire season.

Lesean McCoy and Bryce Brown had about the same carry breakdown as Helu and Morris; you wouldn't dare say that was a two-back system. Bryce Brown is Shady's backup. They weren't interchangeable.

You're using yards from scrimmage to diminish the value of pure rushing yards.

Shady McCoy was impactful as a receiver(@50 rec/500 yds), but it was his running ability from the LOS that drove that Philly offense.

I just don't subscribe to the idea that we define RBs by yards from scrimmage first and rushing yards 2nd.

Total impact on the game?? Yards from scrimmage is a fine metric.
Primary role in the offense?? Ability to run the ball cannot be overstated.

In fact I would say a RB's ability to block on passing downs is considered more important by NFL coaches than his ability to catch the football. RBs who can't block in the passing game rarely see the field.

AD has never been a major dual threat RB in the league. Does that make him a lesser RB??

By your logic, a WR's all purpose yards should carry more weight than his pure yards from only receiving.

If you want to argue that Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles and Shady McCoy are the three best RBs in the league because of their dual threat, fine.

But that's still a long way to go to say Alfred Morris has been an average NFL RB.
It's hard to call one guy the other's backup when they're practically splitting the snaps evenly. Blocking and receiving take effort and energy too, that is why Morris is at an advantage compared to other backs, and calling him a workhorse doesn't really make sense considering he only plays an average amount of snaps. Sure he gets more carries, but he devotes all of his energy towards rushing with the football.

Take someone like Fred Jackson who played a similar number of snaps as Morris. In fact he actually played a greater % of his team's snaps than Alfred Morris did. However, he got less opportunity to run the ball, but instead went out for more routes and blocked more. In the end he ended up with the same amount of total yards. Fred Jackson's job wasn't any easier, but if you look at 1 stat in which utilization immensely favors your guy, you're going to get a biased result.

A similar argument can be made for multiple other backs.

There are plenty of backs capable of rushing for ~1300 yards in this league if given ~300 carries in 600 snaps. It's all about how each back is utilized. For Albert Morris he gets all of the glory work, but it doesn't make him a special back.

There are a bunch of other guys who bring a more complete skill set to the table, produce similar results, and are a part of more productive running back rotations than the one in Washington. That's why Alfred Morris is an average back. Just look at a similar 1 dimensional back like Legarrette Blount whose per carry career stats are a mirror to Morris's. He got a crappy contract on the open market because he is not a special back.
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Old 05-21-2014, 07:36 AM    (permalink
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But a must have trait for a guy to see the field more than a couple times a game for the team he plays for.
Again though it's not a trait that makes him special, which is what this discussion start with. Whether Gore is special anymore or not, now I believe he was a special back, but isn't anymore, which is what usually happens to 31 year old RBs.
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Old 05-21-2014, 07:37 AM    (permalink
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I think Dallas lacking a legit #2 WR keeps them from being that high this year.
Other teams can afford to miss their #1 WR for a few games.
Dallas cannot.

And DeMarco Murray is due to miss time again this season. But while playing, he's fantastic.

BETTER than Frank Gore BTW.
Terrance Williams is a legit #2, had a rookie year that was slept on I guess.

And of course if they lost their 2 best weapons it will hurt them, but that's the truth for all 32 teams.
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Old 05-21-2014, 07:37 AM    (permalink
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Depends on how you look at it. Maybe pass protection isn't that important to you. The question was what warrants respect. It could be a number of things. Pass protection isn't something a lot of backs can do well. To me it's a pretty special trait to have. In addition to other traits, which if we're talking about Gore, has shown the ability to possess. His vision in particular has always been solid.

Yet you'd be surprised the amount of starting backs that aren't great pass protectors. Or aren't even in on a decent amount of pass plays left in to block because they can't do it well.

He was an All Pro in 2006. Gore has done pretty well for himself for the amount of stacked boxes he's constantly had to face in his career. He would have had a much better career if he didn't have to play on all those dreadful teams where he was essentially the best offensive player. Even Vernon Davis had his problems his first few years.
The original question was actually whether Gore is special as a RB or not, and while his pass blocking's certainly useful, and one of many things you have to respect, it is not a trait that can make him a special RB. And focusing on it to try to prop him up now takes away from the herculean efforts he had for you guys back in the dark Alex Smith days.
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