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Old 05-20-2014, 09:14 AM    (permalink
Jomoz
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Default 2014 Season Win Total Over / Unders (LV Hilton)

So the Las Vegas Hilton has finally updated their 2014 NFL Win Total over/unders following the draft.

Do you think they got the numbers right? Who do you think will go Over and who do you think will go Under?



Courtesy of http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/...in-totals.html

I personally would put a big bet on the 49ers under, as I think their talent level doesn't match that win total (especially on defense). I would also think long and hard about the Patriots under - one of these years they will have a sub-.500 season as Brady gets older and less effective. This could be the year. I would also play the Giants under - they are in desperation mode in Tom Coughlin's final year a la Andy Reid in 2012, and all of these free agent patch-jobs will just ruin their chemistry, they have no talent on defensive line any more, and I don't think Eli is even an average QB anymore.

I absolutely love the Bucs over - Lovie Smith is a great defensive coach and he has a ton of defensive talent to work with on this roster and this team could be a surprise 9 or 10 win team. I also love the Rams over - they probably have the best offensive and defensive lines of their division. I would also play the Browns over - they have alot of underrated talent, especially on defense, and if you love Manziel (which I do), they could have a surprising 7+ win season in a bad division with two declining teams (Steelers and Ravens).
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Old 05-20-2014, 02:34 PM    (permalink
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I think the Saints Over 9.5 is a good bet. Bengals Under 9 is another one I like.

Two more I might pick but don't feel as strongly about, Texans Under and Giants Over.

I wouldn't wanna touch any of the teams between Miami and Philadelphia. All of those seem way to uncertain.
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Old 05-20-2014, 03:13 PM    (permalink
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UNDER: Arizona, Tennessee, Cincy, Atlanta

OVER: Dallas, Jacksonville

I disagree about SF under. Too talented.

The Pats are supposed to fall off every year. Their D is going to be better this year and they still play in a division with no good QBs. I don't think it's a wise bet.

Giants, I think I agree with you.

I disagree about the Bucs over. They have Josh McCown at QB and an OK defense. That's a team people will like on paper, and they'll win games, but they'd need everything to break right to make the playoffs. I'd stay away.

If you are going to put money on a handful of these, my advice would be to take more unders than overs. No one wants to bet unders so they are better value than the overs.
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Old 05-20-2014, 04:03 PM    (permalink
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saints are a tough team to guess the record of iyam, simply because the saints play a few of the toughest teams they play only at home (GB and SF). If the Saints are as good as I think theyll go 6-2 or 7-1 at home (losing one of those 2 mentioned) and 4-4 or better on the road, if they are slightly worse that home number could easily be 5-3 (losing to gb, sf and 1 of the division games) and given the saints road troubles that could easily result in a 8-8 type season
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Old 05-20-2014, 04:08 PM    (permalink
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I'd take the Colts under. The secondary still has big question marks (can Howell and Toler stay healthy and play well), no Mathis for 4 games will massively kill our chances of getting pressure, and unless Khaled Holmes is a lot better than I anticipate, centre is still a hot mess at least on the O-Line
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Old 05-20-2014, 04:12 PM    (permalink
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saints will be 12-4
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