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Old 05-05-2007, 01:56 PM    (permalink
VY10
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Default Can Nick Saban Turn the Crimson Tide Around?

92,000 at their spring game and the #10 recruiting class would sound like a good start for almost any college football program. But, 'Bama is in the SEC which, IMO, is the toughest college football conference there is by a long shot. Do you guys think Nick Saban can truly bring 'Bama back?
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Old 05-05-2007, 01:57 PM    (permalink
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Sorry, Rivals has them as the #10 recruiting class.
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Old 05-05-2007, 07:58 PM    (permalink
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He can, but they may not give him enough time. I've always kinda thought he was pretty overrated as a coach.

Hes a great recruiter and a great defensive guy but he only had one 10+ win season at LSU. His teams sometimes came unprepared to play. He can stock the cuppard like he did for Les Miles but I don't see him around long enough to win a title in Alabama..either by his choice or the AD's.
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Old 05-05-2007, 10:21 PM    (permalink
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AD Mal Moore isn't going to fire Saban. Ever. He's been through (I believe) 4 coaching changes and doesn't want to be involved in another. He hung on to Mike Shula as hard as he could, giving him pay raise and extension after pay raise and extension. I can't fathom him firing Saban.

Second, Alabama fans have been moiled in mediocrity for about 8-10 years now. Nobody is expecting to to win an SEC title in 1, 2, 3 or even 4 years. I'd say expectations are that bama is ranked in the top 25 in two years, and regularly in the top 15 in 4.

The only way Saban leaves is by choice, or by failing harder than Mike Shula for 3 years. He's got the highest salary of any NCAA coach, the atmosphere him and his family is looking to live in, an dthe control he wants over his program. To be honest, if he left alabama, where would he go?

As for how he'll do, it really depends on the defense. The players have really bought into his system. The offense returns with only one question at RB. There's holes at NT and OLB, as well as the secondary. Fortunately, defense is Saban's forte.

Schedule:
Western Carolina: Win

Vanderbilt: An improving program, but still a win.

Arkansas: If they had a decent coach, an offensive coordinator, or a quarterback, they'd be nasty: Win

Georgia: Down last year, but I expect them to rebound with better QB play and offensive production: Loss

Florida State: hard to call. FSU has great potential, but also a bust factor next year.

Houston Win

Ole Miss Ed Orgeron's team continues to fail. Win

Tennessee: Solidly talented team with a dynamo OC. Loss

LSU: Possibly biggest game of the year, but Bama doesn't have the talent. Loss

Mississippi State: The tailgating will be good as always, but Win

LA Monroe: Win

Auburn: I really think that this will be auburn's off year despite their heralded tailback talent due to QB and reciever issues. Close, but Win.

Worst Case: 7-5
Best Case: 9-3
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Old 05-05-2007, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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Saban will struggle a bit in his first season, but as he incorporates his system and gets the recruits he will continually progress until they're a national power again in 4 to 5 years. To expect conference championships in the next few years is a reach but give it time and it'll come
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Old 05-05-2007, 10:43 PM    (permalink
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I think he can, but that's if he actually stays there for some time. I have a feeling he'll jump ship if a big college program fires their coach (hmmmm Michigan maybe?)
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Old 05-05-2007, 11:12 PM    (permalink
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**** Nick Saban.
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Old 05-06-2007, 02:04 PM    (permalink
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give him some time and he will have Bama at the very least rivaling Auburn.

he is a fantastic recruiter, but I do feel he is a bit overated as a coach. I mean aside from his NC year, none of his seasons truly were great (@ LSU or Michigan State).
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Old 05-06-2007, 02:19 PM    (permalink
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I think he can, but that's if he actually stays there for some time. I have a feeling he'll jump ship if a big college program fires their coach (hmmmm Michigan maybe?)
i'm thinking he will want to stay in the SEC but i could see him taking as huge a job as that, nothing less though
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Old 05-06-2007, 02:26 PM    (permalink
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Well the Alabama job is pretty big. He's getting an absolute ton of money to try and bring back the tide to the prestigious program they were in the past.
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Old 05-06-2007, 04:27 PM    (permalink
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The expectation is to be the best program in the state within 2 or 3 years, best in the West within 4 years, and to win a conference championship some short period of time after that. The faithful aren't extremely patient, and they have high hopes, as shown from the record turnout at the Spring Game.

Right now, I'm thinking 9-3 next year, 10-2 the year after that (but shaky, with a lot of close games), and 10-2 once again after that--- with much more decisive wins, including a few big wins against top-25 teams. It's going to take a few years of recruiting for Saban to fully implement his 3-4 defense, which will be the backbone of the team when developed.

This is coming from an Alabama student, FYI.
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Old 05-06-2007, 06:10 PM    (permalink
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He will..

In 2-3 years they will be a dominant program.
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Old 05-06-2007, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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I'll say he does.
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Old 05-06-2007, 08:13 PM    (permalink
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You have to remember how loaded programs like UGA, LSU, UF, AU, and Tenn are right now.

Alabama might be able to move past teams like AU, and Tenn shortly but UGA, LSU, and UF from top to bottom have 10x more talent than Alabama has.

Unless Alabama can win recruiting wars between UGA, LSU, and UF soon it will take a number of years for them to move ahead of those schools. Which I dont see happening soon because UF if I remember correctly is dominating college sports and will most likely only get richer in recruiting in the comming years.

UGA's last class was stocked and this years is no different. LSU has arguablly the most talent in the nation maybe only behind USC, and LSU will contine to go to BCS bowls so recruiting will not die down for them either.


In other words Alabama will not win an SEC title anytime soon nor go to a BCS bowl. Maybe 5 or more years from now but that is another story.
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Old 05-06-2007, 09:21 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 504 to ATL View Post
You have to remember how loaded programs like UGA, LSU, UF, AU, and Tenn are right now.

Alabama might be able to move past teams like AU, and Tenn shortly but UGA, LSU, and UF from top to bottom have 10x more talent than Alabama has.

Unless Alabama can win recruiting wars between UGA, LSU, and UF soon it will take a number of years for them to move ahead of those schools. Which I dont see happening soon because UF if I remember correctly is dominating college sports and will most likely only get richer in recruiting in the comming years.

UGA's last class was stocked and this years is no different. LSU has arguablly the most talent in the nation maybe only behind USC, and LSU will contine to go to BCS bowls so recruiting will not die down for them either.


In other words Alabama will not win an SEC title anytime soon nor go to a BCS bowl. Maybe 5 or more years from now but that is another story.
From Rivals:

2007 Recruiting
1. UF
2. USC
3. UT
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. South Carloina
7. Auburn
8. ND
9. UGA
10 Alabama

2006 Recruiting
1. USC
2. UF
3. FSU
4. UGA
5. Texas
6. PSU
7. LSU
8. ND
9. Oklahoma
10. Auburn
10. Alabama

It's not as if Bama's recruiting is really all that far behind, and you have to expect it to get better.

Also, you act as if Bama hasn't ever been in SEC title contention in recent years. You forget 2 years ago when Bama was one game short of taking the West.

Yes, Bama has some ground to cover to catch up to other SEC programs, but it's a gross exaggeration to say other teams have "10x" as much talent. Also, i expect the Tide to be second in the West in a few years, effectively putting them a misstep by LSU away from the title game.
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Old 05-06-2007, 09:31 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by 504 to ATL View Post
You have to remember how loaded programs like UGA, LSU, UF, AU, and Tenn are right now.

Alabama might be able to move past teams like AU, and Tenn shortly but UGA, LSU, and UF from top to bottom have 10x more talent than Alabama has.
Unless Alabama can win recruiting wars between UGA, LSU, and UF soon it will take a number of years for them to move ahead of those schools. Which I dont see happening soon because UF if I remember correctly is dominating college sports and will most likely only get richer in recruiting in the comming years.

UGA's last class was stocked and this years is no different. LSU has arguablly the most talent in the nation maybe only behind USC, and LSU will contine to go to BCS bowls so recruiting will not die down for them either.


In other words Alabama will not win an SEC title anytime soon nor go to a BCS bowl. Maybe 5 or more years from now but that is another story.

if Bama moves past Ten and Auburn then they will be in the SEC championship game every other year (just like Ten and Aub).

your post implies that UF, Geogria, and LSU is 10x's more talented than Auburn and Ten

btw, Auburn beat Florida and Ten destroyed Georgia......

neither Florida nor LSU has went undefeated....its something Auburn accomplishded a few years ago.....Auburn has been more consistent than Florida
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Old 05-06-2007, 11:12 PM    (permalink
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If you look at their record last year there were only 2 losses by which Bama lost by more than 8 and that was Florida at Florida and LSU at LSU. Both won BCS bowls including UF's national championship.

There were also two really close losses - One to Arkansas by 1 in OT and one to Tennessee by 3.

With the new top 10 recruiting classes and Saban coming in I can only see things improving drastically in about 2-3 years if not immediatley.
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Old 05-07-2007, 03:46 AM    (permalink
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Not this season...but in 2 years they will challenge for the SEC West and win 9-10 games.
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Old 05-07-2007, 11:00 AM    (permalink
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He'll have to go through LSU and Auburn first, so the answer to your question is NO.
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Old 05-07-2007, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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THe thing thats really gonna hurt him is having another powerhouse in the same state.

At LSU he could get every big time player in the state if only because theres no other top tier school in the state. Louisiana has tons of high school talent so if you can keep it in state you'll build a monster.

At Alabama he'll have to outrecruit Auburn, which is by no means easy, and it seems to me that the state has much less high school talent in a given year than his last job.

I think a lot of people at Alabama are expecting a quick turn-around..but thats most likely not going to be the case. Hes a great recuiter but its going to take some time to build up that program again.
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Old 05-07-2007, 10:42 PM    (permalink
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THe thing thats really gonna hurt him is having another powerhouse in the same state.

At LSU he could get every big time player in the state if only because theres no other top tier school in the state. Louisiana has tons of high school talent so if you can keep it in state you'll build a monster.

At Alabama he'll have to outrecruit Auburn, which is by no means easy, and it seems to me that the state has much less high school talent in a given year than his last job.

I think a lot of people at Alabama are expecting a quick turn-around..but thats most likely not going to be the case. Hes a great recuiter but its going to take some time to build up that program again.

One reason for auburn's rise in recruiting in recent years was saban's departure from LSU. He owned south Alabama (Dothan Mobile etc.) and had considerable influence in the deep south.

Word is, he's already put his roots back in down in South Alabama. Living in Hoover, alabama, I know that most of the guys around here were looking to play for Auburn until saban walked in.

Mike Shula was a solid recruiter (a la Zook) but, he didn't have the ties and influence Saban has. I'd look for Auburn to suffer in in-state recruiting at Bama's expense in the near future.
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Old 05-08-2007, 09:17 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
One reason for auburn's rise in recruiting in recent years was saban's departure from LSU. He owned south Alabama (Dothan Mobile etc.) and had considerable influence in the deep south.
I don't know about that LSU's still been pulling talent out of Mobile even without Saban, got two guys from Mobile in last Feb's signing class.
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Old 05-08-2007, 09:24 AM    (permalink
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I think they have a good chance of winning the SEC West
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Old 05-08-2007, 09:43 AM    (permalink
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I don't follow the SEC but it seems to me like there's enough talent in Florida and other southern states to go around. After all, players from down there are highly recruited by schools throughout the country and become playmakers at many schools besides those in the SEC.

Between the three Florida universities, Auburn, and LSU, they can still only take a certain number of guys. Even if Bama doesn't start getting the guys at the very top, they will still get many great prospects.

I think Saban's a jerk but he will have Bama back at a competitive level in two years. If he really does stay there, he'll have them contending in the SEC in 4 at the most.
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Old 05-08-2007, 11:12 AM    (permalink
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Yes. A well known coach at a university like Alabama with the tradition and fan support... It will be extremely hard for him to not turn them around.
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