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Old 01-28-2014, 05:11 PM    (permalink
gpngc
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Originally Posted by derza222 View Post
I think the absolute bare minimum they should do at WR and TE this offseason is sign a guy who has been at least a capable #2 WR as a FA and someone Cumberland level or better at TE, then draft a WR by the end of day 2 and a TE by the 4th.

This QB class is tricky, aside from the guys who will be gone by 18 I think Garoppolo is the best fit. Maybe Brett Smith, though I'd have to watch more.


Also the flip side of the Stafford pro-style offense argument is that Stafford should have come in and produced immediately because he was playing in a system closer to what he played in as a collegiate QB. Growing pains were expected in Geno's case (and he looked better when they started running more shotgun).
I wish there was a true stud No. 1 WR available in free agency.

Every FA WR has huge question marks to give a big deal to.

Eric Decker: he's good, and he always puts up stats, but he makes way more mistakes than fantasy footballers know about.

James Jones: How will his game translate to being the number one target for opposing defenses?

Hakeem Nicks: Coming off an absolutely horrible season. And he's always nicked up.

Anquan Boldin: Old and slow. He's good but this might be his last year. Not an ideal No. 1 WR.

Julian Edlemen: Product of the system.

Jeremy Maclin: Coming off an injury. He'd be a good target at a bargain price but I'm sure the rest of the NFL is thinking the same thing.

Golden Tate: Fixes the PR problem too as one of the best in the business. He's a fairly average WR and you'd probably have to overpay - especially if he has a big Super Bowl which is possible.

Doug Baldwin: The Seahawks will prob assign a 2nd-round tender for him.

Kenny Britt: The dude was atrocious last year. I'd invite him to camp. I think Seattle will.
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Old 01-28-2014, 05:42 PM    (permalink
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The Stafford example suits your argument better than anything else.

But there's one gigantic difference. Stafford was a first overall pick with incredible raw talent and experience against SEC defenses in a pro-style offense. Projecting him to get better with his skill set and pedigree made sense. And he did get better. But another part of that example is what has Stafford become? A very flawed QB who continues to make way too many bad mistakes even as an experienced veteran.

Aikman? Stafford?

What about Geno Smith's performance in college or the NFL leads you to believe he can make the type of jump in performance from year one to year two?

This is a different era even from Stafford's rookie year. The NFL is suited for QBs to have success and have success early.

1. There are no flawless quarterbacks. Stafford has become a franchise signal caller. If the Jets are looking for better than that, they're looking a needle in a haystack that probably isn't even in the haystack.

2. As far as what I've seen from Geno. I've seen a quarterback who had nothing to work with talent wise around him. I've seen that before from quarterbacks taken in the second round and I've seen some succeed when given a legitimate opportunity (Brees). Geno deserves a shot with some decent receivers. Should he fail, whoever the Jets replace him with also deserves an opportunity with a receiver corps that isn't either among the worst in the league or the outright worst in the league.

3. I could understand saying that we're in a different era than Troy Aikman, but if you're going to say we're in a different 'era' of football than we were in 2009, the term begins to lose all meaning.
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Old 01-28-2014, 06:24 PM    (permalink
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I wish there was a true stud No. 1 WR available in free agency.

Every FA WR has huge question marks to give a big deal to.

Eric Decker: he's good, and he always puts up stats, but he makes way more mistakes than fantasy footballers know about.

James Jones: How will his game translate to being the number one target for opposing defenses?

Hakeem Nicks: Coming off an absolutely horrible season. And he's always nicked up.

Anquan Boldin: Old and slow. He's good but this might be his last year. Not an ideal No. 1 WR.

Julian Edlemen: Product of the system.

Jeremy Maclin: Coming off an injury. He'd be a good target at a bargain price but I'm sure the rest of the NFL is thinking the same thing.

Golden Tate: Fixes the PR problem too as one of the best in the business. He's a fairly average WR and you'd probably have to overpay - especially if he has a big Super Bowl which is possible.

Doug Baldwin: The Seahawks will prob assign a 2nd-round tender for him.

Kenny Britt: The dude was atrocious last year. I'd invite him to camp. I think Seattle will.
Yeah, the class is pretty mediocre. You're not really going to see true #1's hitting the market, but there's still nothing to write home about. Unless they can get Tate on a reasonable deal (which seems unlikely to me) I think the best course of action is trying to get Maclin or Nicks on a one year prove it deal so you're not tied up long-term but can improve the offense. Then draft 2 WR's and develop from there.
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Old 01-28-2014, 06:58 PM    (permalink
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The only thing about the term "reasonable deal" is that it doesn't really matter. The Jets have to use their cap space. They have enough to spend it. "Overpaying" to get a guy like Tate or Jones will result in a huge upgrade at WR, despite what the bloggers will say about the dollar figures. The money doesn't matter much as long as it's not inhibiting the team from improving the team elsewhere. In the Jets situation flush with cap space, it surely won't. So it'll just be a talking heads thing to say "OVERPAID - BAD DEAL STUPID!!!" like they did with Cliff Avril last year. You have to spend your money when you have it. No point in it sitting in your owners pocket.
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Old 01-28-2014, 07:02 PM    (permalink
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1. There are no flawless quarterbacks. Stafford has become a franchise signal caller. If the Jets are looking for better than that, they're looking a needle in a haystack that probably isn't even in the haystack.

2. As far as what I've seen from Geno. I've seen a quarterback who had nothing to work with talent wise around him. I've seen that before from quarterbacks taken in the second round and I've seen some succeed when given a legitimate opportunity (Brees). Geno deserves a shot with some decent receivers. Should he fail, whoever the Jets replace him with also deserves an opportunity with a receiver corps that isn't either among the worst in the league or the outright worst in the league.

3. I could understand saying that we're in a different era than Troy Aikman, but if you're going to say we're in a different 'era' of football than we were in 2009, the term begins to lose all meaning.
My point wasn't to say I wouldn't welcome Stafford. It was to say that even with all those accolades and draft position, Stafford still hasn't completely evolved past some of his rookie flaws. I don't see Geno evolving anywhere NEAR as far.

Regardless, I don't think we're too far off. I just don't think anyone DESERVES anything. He had a chance. He was horrible. Am I going to root against him if he's able to beat out a rookie and win the job for week 1? Hell no. But I really hope and don't think the Jets are planning for him to be the long-term answer at the most important position on the field.

Maybe I'm impatient. Maybe I really AM too hard on rookies. It just annoys me to think they just wasted a year with a very very good defense. It would be very very sad if that happened again in 2014. That we can all agree on. I don't want the "wait and see with real receivers year." Because I fear it'll just be more of the same, maybe slightly better. I'd rather make the change now and upgrade the damn position by any means necessary.
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Old 01-28-2014, 07:07 PM    (permalink
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To an extent, sure. But look at the Jets' cap situation last year. They locked up a bunch of guys to big, long-term deals and basically got caught in a situation where there was little to nothing that they could do about it. As long as the guarantees aren't ridiculous or they're not really long-term it's fine. But they can't get locked up with mediocre players.

You're better off using your cap space to re-sign the guys who have been successful you've drafted and fill needs with really solid players from time to time. At least from my perspective, and I think that's what Idzik's going to do too. It'd be one thing if the Jets were a #2 receiver away, but they're nowhere near that right now. Just maintain and build without going crazy. Money has to go certain places, but I'd be more inclined to hit a home run with a guy like Jairus Byrd who probably deserves that huge contract and really solidifies the defense and tread water a bit in terms of veteran pass catchers but also draft a bunch of guys than sign a #2 WR to a deal that looks like crap in 3 years (because they'll have to overpay, what WR in their right mind would want to play for the Jets?).

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Old 01-28-2014, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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I compare the situation to Seattle. I believe you guys are a Russell Wilson away. Obviously not to get to Super Bowl level, but a QB goes a long damn way. I've seen it first hand. You'd be surprised how all the other little things fall into place like "overpaying" for Sidney Rice and Zach Miller.
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Old 01-28-2014, 07:49 PM    (permalink
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After Senior Bowl week and game, I think I can live with passing on Matthews for Dee Ford or Kyle Van Noy in 1st, Jared Abbrederis in 2nd and Josh Huff in 3rd.


However, FS will be a hot commodity because there are about 6-8 teams that seek for FS solution. I think Byrd and Ward are only top coveted FA for that position. If Jets want to overpay someone then Byrd or Ward could be ideal.

For Draft plan, Hasean Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, Ed Reynolds and Jimmie Ward may be only legitimate FS prospects. Falcons would take Ward in 2nd. Ravens would take best available FS. Jets are not in very good position of wait and see for value falling onto them. Taking FS in 1st Round is a must.

Granted, Idzik has only 1 draft under his power belt but he made sure that first 3 round prospects would play most of the rookie season. Because of that, QB is out no matter how lovable was Ryan to Garoppolo and Boyd. FS, WR, WR and either RT or OLB depending on FA impact would be more sense for Idzik and his company.

Pryor or Reynods in 1st and Abbrederis in 2nd would be my fast start.

Reilly in 3rd Round? He is 26 years old but Margus Hunt went in 2nd.
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Old 01-28-2014, 07:57 PM    (permalink
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Byrd is a perfect FA target. Fills a need with an above-average player. Now you don't have to use a 2nd round pick on a FS.
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Old 01-29-2014, 08:09 AM    (permalink
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Byrd solidifies the secondary too which is by far the weakest part of the defense. Good in coverage, can create turnovers (which was also a huge issue last year). There's really a lack of good safety play in the league right now and a guy like Byrd would help the defense a ton. Like you said, it's just one less thing to draft too. If they're able to cut and re-sign Cromartie to a more reasonable deal (sounds like he'd like to be back), then they can get away with pretty much drafting a pass rusher if one is available early and depth at corner and ILB whenever they want to. Then lots of offense.
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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I would love the Byrd signing.

I disagree about us being a Russell Wilson away though. He's definitely not the reason the Hawks have gotten this far, and it's arguable if T-Jack couldn't have gotten them here too. What we need is sustained depth and commitment to an identity. No more of these ridiculous Kyle Wilson, Vlad Ducasse, Quinton Coples early picks, and a continued effort in all phases (FA, draft, re-signing players) to keep things rolling instead of focusing on things one year at a time.
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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I think a quarterback would make a world of difference. That said, the sustained depth and commitment to an identity are huge, and I'm hopeful Idzik will bring those. Twelve picks this draft will be huge. I imagine given the cap space this year he'll spend some and won't work as much on comp picks, but hopefully this is the springboard offseason to put the core of the team together and in the future I could see him doing similar things to what he did last year - sign guys who were cut in order to have a better chance of getting comp selections, etc.
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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I do think a QB would make a difference, but I just don't in particular attribute much of what Seattle is doing to their QB play. And, honestly, if we could get to the conference championship game twice with Sanchez, I don't see why we can't get to the SB with Geno if the people around him were better. At the same time, I would like to see us bring in a legit veteran at the position as well as a QB to groom and compete for the future.

Completely agree about this off-season. This kind of makes or breaks the team for the next few years, depending on how they set themselves up. A lot riding on their decisions and foresight with all the flexibility we currently have.
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Old 01-29-2014, 01:07 PM    (permalink
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I think it's going to be key to retain flexibility and make good decisions with all the money they have to use. I don't want to go out and give Decker $9, $10 million a year, to me it makes more sense to sign a vet with less buzz to a shorter term deal even if it's a substantial annual salary. But I do think Byrd could be worth a reasonably big contract for a safety.

I'd expect and hope for a good chunk of one year deals with a couple of bigger deals here or there where it makes sense.
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Old 01-29-2014, 01:10 PM    (permalink
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Tedginnshow, you are wayyyyyyyyyy off about Wilson. He's played his worst football recently and still makes enough big plays to win each game. And they were all against good defenses.

He's probably the non-Peyton MVP of the league this year.
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Old 01-29-2014, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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Tedginnshow, you are wayyyyyyyyyy off about Wilson. He's played his worst football recently and still makes enough big plays to win each game. And they were all against good defenses.

He's probably the non-Peyton MVP of the league this year.
I don't know. I've just never been too impressed with his quarterbacking/"leading" of the team. He can extend any play with his feet, but his actual ability within the pocket to progress through reads and understand blitzes, to me at least, leaves a lot to be desired. Really, he just seems to be the perfect QB for the circumstances that this team allows. I don't in any way think he's carrying this team, nor do I think they wouldn't have been able to get here without him. The disparity between the depth the Hawks possess and the majority of the league is staggering. I obviously didn't go to every team's training camp, but having been at Seattle's before this season, it was very clear that they're a cut above the rest (and it's funny because Maxwell was one of my favorites at the time, and even then he looked better than Browner). But then again, I might just be a hater because I have to hear all the homers here talking about how perfect Wilson is, especially when he comes into my work every Tuesday. lol

Getting back to the Jets, my top 20 free agent acquisitions, provided the list I was looking at was correct, would be (in no particular order):

Antoine Cason, CB
Jake Ballard, TE
Jairus Byrd, S
Drayton Florence, CB
Zane Beadles, OL
Brandon Pettigrew, TE
Sam Shields, CB
Pat McAfee, P
Geoff Schwartz, OL
Brent Grimes, CB
Everson Griffen, DE/OLB
Terrell Thomas, CB
Justin Tuck, DE/OLB
Tracy Porter, CB
Jeremy Maclin, WR
Ziggy Hood, DE
Donald Butler, ILB
Tarell Brown, CB
Anthony McCoy, TE
Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB

...Of course, while it would cost a pretty penny, if they could pony up the money for Byrd and Orakpo, the rest could be stocked through mid-level FA acquisitions and the draft and that defense would be set for years.
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Old 01-29-2014, 11:19 PM    (permalink
gpngc
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He doesn't read defenses as well as the top guns in the pocket. Definitely not with as much consistency as you'd like. Part of that is his height.

But he's terrific against the blitz because he doesn't have to see anything except the matchup he wants to exploit.

His other weakness is fumbling the ball way too much.

But literally every other aspect of playing the position and leading the team he's utterly brilliant.

And to insinuate that the Seahawks would be here without him is pretty nuts. He went 26/9 with a top 5 YPA and plenty of big plays.

People have forgotten the Atlanta game from last year's playoffs too.
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Old 02-02-2014, 09:47 PM    (permalink
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Still think they wouldn't have done it without him? Haha that team is all about that defense.
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Old 02-03-2014, 02:28 PM    (permalink
YotoJets007
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Pete Carroll won the Super Bowl with wrong team at wrong time.

How could Seahawks win the Super Bowl with puny QB and WRs? lol.

On defense side, Bryant is visibly big and Thomas/Thurmod are visibly small as the rest of the unit looks indifferently. Amazing.


It took Seahawks 4 years to get the SB trophy so do we have to wait for another 3 years to get expectation higher?
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Old 02-04-2014, 11:00 PM    (permalink
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@thetedginnshow

I want Orakpo too. Been a big fan since his rookie/combine year. But if I had to choose; Byrd > Orakpo. As IMO, I don't think they'll go after both.
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Old 02-04-2014, 11:44 PM    (permalink
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See, I rather have it the other way around. A dominant edge rusher will do much more for a team than a ballhawking safety every time (that is, of course, if you think Orakpo is dominant). But Orakpo plays the run and the pass as well, so I think he's a complete enough player to really appeal to Rex. Plus, I just think it's harder to find that guy that can't be blocked opposed to the deep safety. Ultimately, if you have a good enough pass rush, anyone can be patrolling back there. Considering the injury history and the up-and-down sack totals, I think we can get Orakpo for a reasonable price, and guys like him don't come around too often. But then again, if we draft right, we could very easily revamp our linebacking corp with this draft.

Honestly, as far as FA goes, as long as we don't waste money bringing back Holmes or Cro and don't shell out big bucks for a WR, while hopefully locking up some of those young guys, we could do whatever they want.
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Old 02-05-2014, 08:04 AM    (permalink
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All else equal I agree that a pass rusher is more valuable than a safety. That said, I think Byrd is a better player at his position than Orakpo and fits the defense's needs more. With how talented the defensive line is I don't think they need all that much at that OLB spot - Pace on a one year deal and a mid-round draft pick to develop looks like it'll likely be good enough. Defensively the secondary was a big weakness I think a safety like Byrd can tie together plus I'd argue he can help more from a turnover creating perspective which was a huge weakness too. And all else equal safeties go for less than OLB's - more impact for the buck to go Byrd.

I wouldn't mind Cro back on a reasonable contract, but I kind of don't think it goes that way unless there's absolutely no market for him and he comes back really cheap.
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Old 02-05-2014, 09:53 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by derza222 View Post
I wouldn't mind Cro back on a reasonable contract, but I kind of don't think it goes that way unless there's absolutely no market for him and he comes back really cheap.


I'd be comfortable if the Jets could get him back for one year 3-4 million deal. It still saves 5-6 million on the cap and if it doesn't work out, they're not on the hook at all next year.

He had no business playing in the pro bowl and IMO, only got in on name recognition. But I also think he could have a bounceback season if he heals up this offseason and I'd like that to be with the Jets.

If the Jets take a cornerback in the first (I don't want them to, but I think they will), Cromartie won't be back for more than this season, and probably not even that.


The reason I think they're going to take a cornerback.....


Since 2010, the Jets have only drafted defensive linemen and cornerbacks in the first round. We already know Cromartie will be gone soon, and Kyle Wilson is entering into his contract year. I really don't think the Jets are going to retain him and I don't think he's going to want to stick around to be the nickle corner.

That leaves Milliner and..... Milliner.

Now, mind you with the sheer volume of receiving talent in the first few rounds of the draft, I really want the Jets to take a TE and at least one WR with the option for a second within the first three rounds.

But deep down I think they're going cornerback. Again.
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Old 02-05-2014, 10:25 AM    (permalink
derza222
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The cupboard is pretty bare at corner for sure. The one reason I'm not completely sold they go in that direction is that I'm not sure who the first round corner is in this class they want to go after. Seems like a lot of guys who either have physical tools but weren't actually good corners in college or who were good in college but might lack physical tools.

I don't think that's Idzik's M.O., at least not early in the draft. Milliner was really good in college and had top notch physical tools. Ditto for Richardson. Frankly Geno did too. Winters had great tools for a guard and was a good left tackle in college. They took some gambles late, but early it looks like no projects - good football players with physical tools. Maybe Dennard runs well, otherwise it's Justin Gilbert and I think he's raw too. So on that end it doesn't make sense to me. Maybe more of a day 2/day 3 move. But that's just my guess.
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Old 02-05-2014, 01:53 PM    (permalink
YotoJets007
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Jets' front 7 was able to break the LOS and put qb under pressure. We need a true FS.

Sack QB to push back 5-10 yards but a qb with strong arm or better offense will get 1st down against our pathetic FS anyway.


FS >>>>>>>> rushing OLB.
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