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Old 02-05-2014, 01:57 PM    (permalink
YotoJets007
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Sam Shields from Packers? I would go after him instead of Cromartie.
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Old 02-06-2014, 12:42 AM    (permalink
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See, sometimes I feel like I'm watching different games than everybody else. Our DL is talented (not the front 7), sure, but they hardly were able to generate a pass rush on their own. More often than not, they succeeded early on in games through creative blitz schemes, but then tired down over the course of the game because of our average depth and over-reliance on the first couple of guys in the rotation. Generally, when it mattered most and we weren't up by a lot or down by a lot, the front 3 + an OLB couldn't really get to the QB on their own merit. We need a real threat at OLB. We actually need quite a bit of depth in general in the front 7, so I think a healthy amount of draft picks/acquisitions of young, athletic FAs are in need. Having a healthy Barnes back would be huge, but we need another 3 or 4 guys along that front seven to help out. To me, our pass rush is terrible, regardless of what the sack numbers may lead you to believe. Personally, I think someone like Orakpo could be huge in our system, but I would much prefer successful draft picks. It's just that after going for a guy like Coples, I don't really trust Rex's eye for pass rushing prospects. I don't care if we get Orakpo though. Anyone will do. I just hope they don't also believe our pass rush is adequate.

And while I like Byrd, if we wanted to revamp our Safety group in one fell swoop, though I know we have guys like Allen and Bush waiting in the wings, as well as Landry there, Jimmy Ward and Dion Bailey are about as Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor as you're going to get this draft, if everyone's going to follow that prototype.
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Old 02-06-2014, 11:29 AM    (permalink
YotoJets007
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Chargers' cap is kind of tight. Moving Rivers would create a great cap room.

Sending 2014 and 2015's 1st round picks and QB Geno Smith to Chargers for him. Rivers and Simms are on the roster with one quarterback like Wenning or Vaughan on practice squad. This would solve qb problem for 2014 and 2015.

Jets could have 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd comp?, 4th, 4th comp and 4th comp? to fill out the holes. By comp?, it is either round depending on outcome of secret formula NFL has used.

Trading Harris to Saints for either WR Nick Toon or WR Chris Givens and 4th round pick. It may help make a cap room to bring Cromartie back.


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Old 02-06-2014, 11:32 AM    (permalink
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See, sometimes I feel like I'm watching different games than everybody else. Our DL is talented (not the front 7), sure, but they hardly were able to generate a pass rush on their own. More often than not, they succeeded early on in games through creative blitz schemes, but then tired down over the course of the game because of our average depth and over-reliance on the first couple of guys in the rotation. Generally, when it mattered most and we weren't up by a lot or down by a lot, the front 3 + an OLB couldn't really get to the QB on their own merit. We need a real threat at OLB. We actually need quite a bit of depth in general in the front 7, so I think a healthy amount of draft picks/acquisitions of young, athletic FAs are in need. Having a healthy Barnes back would be huge, but we need another 3 or 4 guys along that front seven to help out. To me, our pass rush is terrible, regardless of what the sack numbers may lead you to believe. Personally, I think someone like Orakpo could be huge in our system, but I would much prefer successful draft picks. It's just that after going for a guy like Coples, I don't really trust Rex's eye for pass rushing prospects. I don't care if we get Orakpo though. Anyone will do. I just hope they don't also believe our pass rush is adequate.

And while I like Byrd, if we wanted to revamp our Safety group in one fell swoop, though I know we have guys like Allen and Bush waiting in the wings, as well as Landry there, Jimmy Ward and Dion Bailey are about as Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor as you're going to get this draft, if everyone's going to follow that prototype.

Ware and Suggs could be available as well.

I too want to draft safety that high. I hope Ryan loses all battles on safety because he never values S that high. Let's go Idzik!
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Old 02-06-2014, 12:03 PM    (permalink
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The Chargers aren't going to trade a pro bowl qb in his prime when he has a lower cap hit than what comparable quarterbacks are getting on an annual basis.

The Saints are in much worse shape than the Chargers cap wise and have to somehow figure out how to resign Jimmy Graham. They're not going to trade for David Harris and his 4.9 million dollar base salary.

Even worse, that would open up another hole in the Jets starting lineup with minimal hope that what the Jets are getting in return will fill a different one.


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Old 02-06-2014, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by thetedginnshow View Post
See, sometimes I feel like I'm watching different games than everybody else. Our DL is talented (not the front 7), sure, but they hardly were able to generate a pass rush on their own. More often than not, they succeeded early on in games through creative blitz schemes, but then tired down over the course of the game because of our average depth and over-reliance on the first couple of guys in the rotation. Generally, when it mattered most and we weren't up by a lot or down by a lot, the front 3 + an OLB couldn't really get to the QB on their own merit. We need a real threat at OLB. We actually need quite a bit of depth in general in the front 7, so I think a healthy amount of draft picks/acquisitions of young, athletic FAs are in need. Having a healthy Barnes back would be huge, but we need another 3 or 4 guys along that front seven to help out. To me, our pass rush is terrible, regardless of what the sack numbers may lead you to believe. Personally, I think someone like Orakpo could be huge in our system, but I would much prefer successful draft picks. It's just that after going for a guy like Coples, I don't really trust Rex's eye for pass rushing prospects. I don't care if we get Orakpo though. Anyone will do. I just hope they don't also believe our pass rush is adequate.

And while I like Byrd, if we wanted to revamp our Safety group in one fell swoop, though I know we have guys like Allen and Bush waiting in the wings, as well as Landry there, Jimmy Ward and Dion Bailey are about as Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor as you're going to get this draft, if everyone's going to follow that prototype.
I do think the pass rush could be improved, I also think the secondary is worse. And the DL isn't getting home on their own, but Calvin Pace had double digit sacks mostly because of the DL. At this point free rushers are going to be coming to the QB just because offensive lines need to account for Richardson and Wilkerson. As long as they have a guy who can set the edge in base packages they can get away with bringing in guys like Barnes in obvious passing situations and likely get home because of how good the line is.

Would a three down OLB who can set the edge and get to the QB on his own be awesome? Of course, but given the state of the rest of the team I think it's more of a luxury than a need. And because of that I think dropping around $30M on Byrd, re-signing Pace on the vet min, and drafting a guy in the third or fourth to rush the passer in sub-packages this year along with Barnes and take over for Pace next year would use the cap space more efficiently and set the team up better going forward than around $45M on Orakpo (and obviously I'm pulling numbers out of my ass here, but I think it's safe to say Orakpo will cost more), spending that same third or fourth on a safety (or higher), and having that guy compete with Landry and Allen for a starting spot.

As important as the ability to set the edge is in Rex's scheme, I think OLB by committee is the most efficient way to go. As long as the guys play specials have certain guys he's comfortable with on running downs, certain pass rush specialists, and in aggregate they're cheaper than one guy who can do it all. And the ability of the defensive line to eat up blockers makes it easier to get away with that.

Of course that's just me. I didn't mean to suggest the pass rush is good enough - I just think that's an approach that can get good results while allocating less resources to the position (given everything that's gone into the defensive front). Those linemen are going to have to get paid someday too, I don't think they're going to want to have a ton of cap space allocated to the front 7.
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Old 02-06-2014, 01:03 PM    (permalink
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The Chargers aren't going to trade a pro bowl qb in his prime when he has a lower cap hit than what comparable quarterbacks are getting on an annual basis.

The Saints are in much worse shape than the Chargers cap wise and have to somehow figure out how to resign Jimmy Graham. They're not going to trade for David Harris and his 4.9 million dollar base salary.

Even worse, that would open up another hole in the Jets starting lineup with minimal hope that what the Jets are getting in return will fill a different one.


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Old 02-07-2014, 03:07 PM    (permalink
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So the Jets are eyeing Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders. Because some of them don't think Eric Decker can be a #1.

I read that and smiled. Not only because I expect Maclin to be substantially cheaper than Decker, but I have similar concerns about Decker and I don't want the Jets to the team to get stuck with the monster contract for an underperforming wide receiver AGAIN.
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Old 02-07-2014, 03:42 PM    (permalink
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So the Jets are eyeing Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders. Because some of them don't think Eric Decker can be a #1.

I read that and smiled. Not only because I expect Maclin to be substantially cheaper than Decker, but I have similar concerns about Decker and I don't want the Jets to the team to get stuck with the monster contract for an underperforming wide receiver AGAIN.
Yeah, I'm not crazy about Decker.

I'd be happy with Maclin and Sanders. Or one of them plus a rookie taken in the first 2 rounds. It's also crucial that they address TE this off season.
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Old 02-08-2014, 12:43 PM    (permalink
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I'm reluctant to want any of the available receivers except for Maclin. I don't think he would get overpaid like Sanders and Decker will unless some team is convinced he is healthy and desperately looking for an upgrade. I don't trust Decker given his penchant for drops. Additionally Decker's production has to be wildly inflated by Manning. Sanders is an average wide receiver that will most likely get much more money than he deserves because teams always get desperate for skill positions in free agency.

I was just thinking about the qb situation a bit and i feel like Zach Mettenberger might be an interesting option if he falls as far as some think he could. It would be pretty much perfect in my estimation because he won't be active competition for Geno from day one but will provide him some extra motivation. Given when his injury occurred he might be healthy enough to fill in late in the year should Geno play poorly early on.
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Old 02-08-2014, 01:29 PM    (permalink
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How about Hakeem Nicks? He clearly mailed it in last year which scares me, but the talent is there and maybe he won't get as much money as a result.

I like Decker but he'll be overpaid. He's a #2 that will get #1 money. Same goes for Sanders. He's a #3 that will get paid like a #2. Though I'd rather have Sanders.

Maclin is the obvious signing. Low risk, high reward. We just have to draft someone high or sign another if we bring in Maclin.
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Old 02-08-2014, 02:20 PM    (permalink
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The issue is that the Jets are in a somewhat tough spot because they aren't exactly a great situation for a receiver to step into and produce. So they're likely going to overpay for a wideout relative to what another team might, and probably aren't a great situation for a guy like Maclin or Nicks who might otherwise be amenable to a one year prove it deal.

I like Sanders, think he's explosive and good after the catch. Suits the offense and could be a good #2 - probably won't be overly expensive either. Not great but better than what the Jets have. Golden Tate is similar plus good hands, the Seahawks are probably going to let him walk and he didn't have a huge Super Bowl so you're not overpaying for that.

Nicks I'd like on a one year deal as a dice roll but I don't know why he'd come to the Jets for that as opposed to going down to Carolina or something and ending up in a more stable QB situation.
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Old 02-08-2014, 03:02 PM    (permalink
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I really don't know if Golden Tate would be a good fit. On one hand he breaks more tackles than any WR in the league but on the other hand he really doesn't get consistent separation which has been a problem for Jets receivers for years.

He CAN get deep but he's not a real speedy deep threat.

And while he didn't have a big playoffs, he's still the 5th or so best WR on the market and adds value as one of the top punt returners on the market. Plus, his agent will make a compelling case that although his numbers aren't huge - he was not in a stat-friendly offense for WRs.

I think signing Tate AND Maclin or Tate AND Jones would make me much happier than just signing Tate and relying on a rookie.
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Old 02-08-2014, 03:11 PM    (permalink
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The issue is that the Jets are in a somewhat tough spot because they aren't exactly a great situation for a receiver to step into and produce. So they're likely going to overpay for a wideout relative to what another team might, and probably aren't a great situation for a guy like Maclin or Nicks who might otherwise be amenable to a one year prove it deal.

I like Sanders, think he's explosive and good after the catch. Suits the offense and could be a good #2 - probably won't be overly expensive either. Not great but better than what the Jets have. Golden Tate is similar plus good hands, the Seahawks are probably going to let him walk and he didn't have a huge Super Bowl so you're not overpaying for that.

Nicks I'd like on a one year deal as a dice roll but I don't know why he'd come to the Jets for that as opposed to going down to Carolina or something and ending up in a more stable QB situation.
I've watched enough Giants games that I don't want Nicks as a Jet. Once upon a time he was a great WR and definitely a 'true number one receiver'. But he mailed it in this past season and he seems to be dinged up every season. If I had to choose between Nicks and Decker, as much as I don't want to say this, I'd probably go with Decker.

If there are any Giants players I'd like to see the Jets go after, it's Jon Beason and potential cap casualty Antrelle Rolle. I've been very impressed with Beason who seemed to give the Giants that presence at middle linebacker they've been lacking since Antonio Pierce's career started going down hill. If the Jets were able to replace David Harris with Jon Beason, I'd be fine with that. Especially given the Jets physically dominating defensive line.

And mind you, I'm someone who thinks the Jets should keep David Harris. Releasing him would save the Jets 5 million on the cap, but unless they're going to go after someone like Beason, who would the Jets sign with 50 million in cap room that they can't sign with 45? (There is an assumption of Cromartie, Goodson, Holmes and Sanchez getting cut with those numbers)

Antrel Rolle has a rather large cap number the Giants could avoid by cutting him. He's been very good for the Giants and as much as I think they should keep him, if they don't, I want him to stay in New York with the Jets.

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Old 02-08-2014, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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The issue is that the Jets are in a somewhat tough spot because they aren't exactly a great situation for a receiver to step into and produce. So they're likely going to overpay for a wideout relative to what another team might, and probably aren't a great situation for a guy like Maclin or Nicks who might otherwise be amenable to a one year prove it deal. .

True that FA WR's are going to be thinking about Geno throwing them the ball. However, I think there is a possibility that the Jets take a run at Vick. There were a lot of rumors about that last season. Vick is a play maker, he would draw more interest for a FA WR, there's the Mornhinweg connection, and he can bridge the development of Geno (who wasn't ready this season).
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Old 02-08-2014, 04:35 PM    (permalink
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The more I think about it, the more I want Vick. I'm not a big believer in Vick as a passer at all anymore. Every time he gets a chance it's the same "holding onto the ball too long and not making great decisions and sporadic accuracy then getting hurt" deal. And now his speed will likely start declining if it hasn't already.

But I think there is SOME glimmer of hope that if it clicks and an OC like MM gets into his head and make things easier for him, and he kinda gets lucky, he CAN be a good fit for this team. Plus, he's an upgrade over what they have currently so it's worth it just for that. The Jets don't need a guy to throw for 30 TDs. They need someone who can generate points and big plays. Vick can do those things.

I like Shaun Hill too. I've asked this before but I don't remember if I ever got an answer... does he have MM connections from DET?
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Old 02-08-2014, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
The more I think about it, the more I want Vick. I'm not a big believer in Vick as a passer at all anymore. Every time he gets a chance it's the same "holding onto the ball too long and not making great decisions and sporadic accuracy then getting hurt" deal. And now his speed will likely start declining if it hasn't already.

But I think there is SOME glimmer of hope that if it clicks and an OC like MM gets into his head and make things easier for him, and he kinda gets lucky, he CAN be a good fit for this team. Plus, he's an upgrade over what they have currently so it's worth it just for that. The Jets don't need a guy to throw for 30 TDs. They need someone who can generate points and big plays. Vick can do those things.

I like Shaun Hill too. I've asked this before but I don't remember if I ever got an answer... does he have MM connections from DET?

I disagree quite a bit, at least given how things stand with the Jets. Michael Vick achieved his greatest success, and IMO, only success as a pocket passer when he had a consistent deep threat he was able to develop a rapport with. The only person that even resembles a deep threat on the Jets roster is Stephen Hill. Now, if the Jets think Vick can somehow salvage Hill's once promising career, that would be one thing. But excluding that, there no one on the Jets roster who can really take advantage of Vick's cannon-arm. If the Jets sign returning-from-an-ACL-tear Jeremy Maclin, I think that would still be true.

I actually do think Maclin might be a lower tier #1 WR in the NFL. But he's been stuck in a situation where his quarterback is frequently looking for the "big play" down the field; and while Maclin had pretty good speed coming out of college, it was nothing compared to Desean Jackson's 4.3 40.


Marty left Detroit after 2002 and Shaun Hill got to Detroit in 2010.
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Old 02-08-2014, 05:46 PM    (permalink
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I agree with your analysis of Vick. We all know that the Jets have a desperate need for WR/TE play makers on offense and hopefully this is a priority in the draft and free agency. But why not QB also? Idzik and Rex have shown that they wont commit to Geno as the starter as of now. Vick makes the offense better right away. He's not a long term solution, but could help Geno for the future, or possibly someone else they draft to develop.
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Old 02-08-2014, 05:52 PM    (permalink
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I think it is still to early to give up on Hill. He didn't catch a lot of balls in college and everyone knew he was raw coming out. The WR position is a tough transition from college to NFL for most WR's, and it wouldn't be surprising if Hill showed us much more in his 3rd year. Wish they never compared him to Megatron coming out, don't see that ever happening.

It's possible the Jets draft a speed guy in this deep WR class that fits Vick's cannon-arm.

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Old 02-08-2014, 06:42 PM    (permalink
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On Nicks - I wouldn't like him as the only offseason acquisition because of the health/effort issues. But if they signed someone around the level of a Sanders/Tate/James Jones along with him and drafted a guy on the first two days, I'd be cool with it. Also to me even with the question marks Nicks on pretty much any one year deal is better than Decker on something like a 5/$40M deal. Maclin I like a lot and maybe they can grab him by making the #1 WR in a system you're familiar with pitch and tossing him an extra couple million on the prove it contract than another team is willing to, but I'm not sure they're going to be able to get him to come to NY.

On Vick, I'm way too far from the situation to form a solid opinion. He absolutely has big play ability the Jets are lacking, but as Crickett pointed out the Jets don't have a whole lot of guys who can take advantage of his arm strength and get downfield. At this point I can't really see him making it through a season healthy either. The big question mark is whether or not he's a good locker room guy - and I have no idea. But the Jets seemed to have really good camaraderie this season and I'm not sure that's worth messing with for a QB who's got a lot of ifs around him even if he might be an upgrade. If the Browns cut Jason Campbell he could be a solid option at QB.

At this point I haven't given up on Hill but I also think it's foolish to expect anything of him. I'll admit I was a huge proponent of his pre-draft as I thought he fit what the team needed perfectly - at this point they're not nearly running the same style of offense though. Obviously he's hugely talented, but he's had issues with consistency and health, plus plays smaller than he is on the field. It can take receivers time to put everything together so maybe he does, but at this point they really can't realy on him at all.
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Old 02-08-2014, 07:26 PM    (permalink
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With Hill, it would be foolish to rely on him, without significant upgrade at the WR/TE position. I was just pointing out that it's too early to know if he is a complete bust.

While I can see the Jets thinking win now, with a signing like Vick, I can also see them pass and develop Geno within the game surrounding him with better weapons. The whole Vick/locker room thing, I don't by into that one. If I remember correctly, there were some rumblings going on at points in the season of the defense being frustrated over Geno throwing away there solid efforts with his TO's.

I like Maclin. I'd be very happy with his signing. Looking over the numbers though, I wouldn't be comfortable with him as the answer to what we need. His numbers are scarily similar to Holmes's were (minus the SB catch). Both drafted late in the 1st round, combine the 1st four years for each and they have one 1000 yard season (Holmes in his 4th year, then signed with Jets). Maclin just missed his 1000 yard in his 4th season (then got hurt for his 5th). Maclin averaged 64 catches a year, Holmes averaged 58. Both seemed on the upside in their 4th years. Neither was ever a true #1. I don't know much about Maclin's personality and work ethic however, and that is where they could truly be separated.
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Old 02-08-2014, 07:31 PM    (permalink
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Though he's a good teammate and does everything he's asked, as this becomes more and more of a passing league, David Harris really should be cut. He's a liability out there the majority of the time. But then again, so is Pace, and people seem to want him back. If the defense is ever going to develop and impose its will on people, however, it'll have to get a little more athletic at a few positions.

I really don't think Nicks fits the mold of the type of guy they want in the locker room. Vick does, however, and it would probably be an attractive deal to both sides on a one year contract or something. I don't know. Vick won't be too expensive, and even if he's bad, he'll probably still be better than Geno this past season, which if the rest of the team improves, would likely land us in the playoffs.
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Old 02-08-2014, 07:42 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, I agree on Harris. He's regressed and as tedginn said, he's too much of a liability in the passing game. Still solid in the run game though.

I disagree to an extent on Pace. After the 2012 season, I would have 100% agreed with you. It's just hard to ignore that double digit sack year he had last year. It was probably a fluke but still. He's not a 3 down player anymore, but he's still somebody I want on the team.
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Old 02-09-2014, 02:57 AM    (permalink
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Well, I should clarify. I would like him back, but I don't think he should be counted on for much. The way things sounded, it seemed like with having him around, our pass rush would be fine which, even in that sense, I don't think he's that great. He plays the system well so he gets his sacks through good schemes, but a lot of times he just gets stonewalled and becomes an absolute non-factor by a single blocker. We should get to the point with our OLBs that if both are blocked 1-on-1, someone should be putting pressure on the QB. And that's not necessarily getting a guy like Orakpo, but we need people with a bit more athleticism (even bargain guys like Avril was). Maybe Anthony Spencer?
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Old 02-09-2014, 09:59 AM    (permalink
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My thought on Pace is that in this defensive scheme, OLB's absolutely need to be able to set the edge. We saw what happened a couple of years ago when we had replacements at OLB and teams busted a lot of long runs to the outside. I don't think there's going to be any situation where a rookie is a plug and play guy. But if you combine an athletic rookie they want to develop into a three down guy with Pace, then there's an edge setter who can get home if it's schemed for him to that they can play in rushing situations and a better pass rusher in passing situations. And then hopefully the rookie develops into that three down guy you're looking for above - and provides the athleticism you mention as well.

To me, that's a whole lot more cost effective than breaking the bank for a guy like Orakpo. I saw a projection that has him getting over $10m a year - they do have the cap space to pull that off, but given the front 7 is pretty strong I think they'd be better off allocating it elsewhere.

It's also pretty clear that Rex isn't looking for the pass rush to come from OLB's - I'd like it that way too, but I just don't think it's realistic to hope for it. They're going to scheme to make it happen and take advantage of the strength they have on the defensive line eating up blockers. That's why I definitely agree with you on the athleticism, it'll make things more effective when they get free rushers.

The issue then becomes that with Barnes as the sub-package pass rusher, I don't think they're going to spend an early pick on a guy who doesn't have the length to hold up on the edge - since they likely won't be able to develop someone like that into a three down guy. Mack becomes kind of fringy in that regard, I'm not sure where his arms will measure in but he's probably gone anyway. Barr could make sense if he slips as people haven't been super impressed with his tape. Adrian Hubbard, Yoto's boy Trevor Reilly, Trent Murphy (who doesn't look like an outstanding athlete but was really productive as a pass rusher), Jackson Jeffcoat, Aaron Lynch, and James Gayle probably all fit that mold as 6'4+ guys. My guess we'll be for a team that's trying to build through the draft and prioritizes stopping the run we'll see someone along the lines of these guys drafted and eased into a starting role (similar to Jamie Collins last year for the Pats - who would have been awesome to land last draft). But that's just my guess and a little more detail on my thought process.
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