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Old 09-24-2007, 02:24 PM    (permalink
thule
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Yes you're right I do like Julius Jones a lot. In fact he's probably one of my favorite players on the Cowboys...so I probably am a little biased.

I look at running backs two ways: with my eyes on the television and my eyes on the stat sheet. So when I go to look at the statistical sheet, I can thoroughly understand which yards a back earned, and which resulted more from defensive breakdowns or excellent play by the players around him. In this manner, I can determine outliers, and I then factor those outliers into my interpretation of the statistics. If you've ever taken a statistics course, you'll know that it is generally accepted that you can eliminate outliers before you calculate an average; another way of looking at performace is through the median. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but if I were to guess, I would say that Julius Jones' median run for this season is much closer to Barber's mean run than their averages.

And, objectively, I think Julius Jones was the better running back last. He was able to pick up positive yardage on almost every carry, while Barber got stopped in the backfield a couple of times. Now, Barber did get poor blocking on a couple of those plays, but, in my mind, one of his faults is that he struggles when he doesn't have good blocking. (Of course, the same argument possibly could have been made about Emmitt Smith).

Finally, this one is for you Barber fans. If I were you, and I understood how well Barber performed in the late part of the game, that's where I would want him, because I believe that he is a better runner for that part of the game because of his physicality. Personally, I like having Jones in early because he does have the potential to make a big play and put the Cowboys up early.
Well Mr. Statistition I'm pretty sure I posted the most extensive stats breaking down a RB's totals in just about every way. Every catagory MB3 was top 5....JJ didn't crack the top 30 if I'm not mistaken. If you would like I can repost them.
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:25 PM    (permalink
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My worry is that....how long can Garrett be kept down to a OC....how long until teams come barking....Is it really fair to Wade to shoo him out of the new guy....this could be a big problem...hopefully Jerry's love keeps him here for a long time.
Yeah, not sure how long. Wes Phillips is not ready.

BTW, who's idea was it to put Owens out there at safety? Did you guys see that???
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:28 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, not sure how long. Wes Phillips is not ready.

BTW, who's idea was it to put Owens out there at safety? Did you guys see that???
He played defense last year in our prevent package as well
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:30 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, not sure how long. Wes Phillips is not ready.

BTW, who's idea was it to put Owens out there at safety? Did you guys see that???

Yeah they did it before when a team was trying a Hail Mary. Cant remember which game though.
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:38 PM    (permalink
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My worry is that....how long can Garrett be kept down to a OC....how long until teams come barking....Is it really fair to Wade to shoo him out of the new guy....this could be a big problem...hopefully Jerry's love keeps him here for a long time.
I certainly hope that Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett's potential combined success doesn't force one of them to leave...but you have to wonder about teams coming and calling on Garrett. But then again, I think that at this point, he probably doesn't have enough defensive experience to be a successful head coach.
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:38 PM    (permalink
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on a negative note, the tackle "attempt" roy tried on desmond clark made me sick to my stomach...can you please open your arms on at least SOME of the tackles for lords sake... he looked like a pinball, guess he didnt realize he wasnt tackling a WR but a TE who probably wont fall, those are mistakes we cant make vs some of the top AFC teams...he more then made up for it with some plays which was great, but WOW, that tackle was worthless and he should know better by now


*EDIT*


and as far as Garrett is concerned, i believe he actually wants to coach for dallas, the team he played for...he wont wait forever, but i think its realistic to see him as our OC for 2-3 years before he takes the leap, he has to understand the ENTIRE game and team to be a head coach, and hes still wet behind the ears as far as everything in concerned...but i doubt he goes elsewhere, i think he would be proud as our HC, and probably was promised the job in the near future
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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Well Mr. Statistition I'm pretty sure I posted the most extensive stats breaking down a RB's totals in just about every way. Every catagory MB3 was top 5....JJ didn't crack the top 30 if I'm not mistaken. If you would like I can repost them.
Oh no, I saw them, and that is why I don't look exclusively at stat sheets, because there are some VERY good backs who don't show up in the top 5 of those sheets based on this year's production. (A certain gentleman named Ladanian comes to mind). And any time you have a formula that breaks down statistics, (as with any interpretation of statistics that is not completely numerical), a certain amount of objectivity comes into play; take for example, the US News & World Report College Rankings.
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:44 PM    (permalink
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I also would like to point out that I realize that Marion HAS performed better thus far this season; I have been disappointed with Julius Jones on numerous occasions. Nevertheless, I think that 2 games into a season is far too early to give up on a running back. (I'm discounting this third game because I wouldn't grade Julius on his performance due to his lack of carries).
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:48 PM    (permalink
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Using those same stats tho did you see the elite company MB3 was with last year...you can say stats are stats but they take everything into account.

2006 stats
Top runners according to DPAR last year were
21-L.Tomlinson SD
27-L.Johnson KC
21-T.Barber NYG
39-S.Jackson STL
29-J.Addai IND
21-F.Gore SF
36-B.Westbrook PHI
24-M.Barber DAL


In that order...
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:51 PM    (permalink
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I also would like to point out that I realize that Marion HAS performed better thus far this season; I have been disappointed with Julius Jones on numerous occasions. Nevertheless, I think that 2 games into a season is far too early to give up on a running back. (I'm discounting this third game because I wouldn't grade Julius on his performance due to his lack of carries).
It goes back much further than just 2 games though. We've been waiting to see Julius realize his potential for a few years now. We still see flashes here and there, but it's usually just him using his great quickness to burst through a hole that is already there. He still doesn't create much of anything for himself or the team the way Barber does. The only edge I can give to Julius over Marion at this point is his speed. Every other pertinent attribute I can think of, Marion shines brighter.
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Old 09-24-2007, 02:56 PM    (permalink
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Using those same stats tho did you see the elite company MB3 was with last year...you can say stats are stats but they take everything into account.

2006 stats
Top runners according to DPAR last year were
21-L.Tomlinson SD
27-L.Johnson KC
21-T.Barber NYG
39-S.Jackson STL
29-J.Addai IND
21-F.Gore SF
36-B.Westbrook PHI
24-M.Barber DAL


In that order...
Yeah, when you look at how that really is a pretty accurate ranking of who the best backs were last year, I'd say the stats you cited hold a lot of validity. They're not twisted and skewed like so many others. To think that Jones played for the exact same team, yet his ranking is so much lower. And he starts. What more must the Barbarian do to prove that he deserves the starting job and the majority of the carries?
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Old 09-24-2007, 03:01 PM    (permalink
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Using those same stats tho did you see the elite company MB3 was with last year...you can say stats are stats but they take everything into account.

2006 stats
Top runners according to DPAR last year were
21-L.Tomlinson SD
27-L.Johnson KC
21-T.Barber NYG
39-S.Jackson STL
29-J.Addai IND
21-F.Gore SF
36-B.Westbrook PHI
24-M.Barber DAL


In that order...
That is the one stat that you posted that makes an impression on me.

I'd like to note that I've never said that Jones is a better back than Barber. I've said that Julius is a more capable starter, but I believe that Barber is a better closer. I like our running back rotation as it is right now, except that I'd like to see Julius get to run a few more of those plays that he ran his first year, especially the draw. I was disappointed when I saw Barber running the draws at the end of the half, but then again, I don't think you can take him out in the middle of the series...

As to your point, Duckseason, I believe that Marion is indeed a more powerful runner, a more patient runner, and perhaps has better vision. He is also a better blocker. I believe that Julius is faster, and a bit more agile. He is also, in my mind, a better weapon as a pass-catcher because of his abilities in the open field. That last point is debatable though.
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Old 09-24-2007, 03:04 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, when you look at how that really is a pretty accurate ranking of who the best backs were last year, I'd say the stats you cited hold a lot of validity. They're not twisted and skewed like so many others. To think that Jones played for the exact same team, yet his ranking is so much lower. And he starts. What more must the Barbarian do to prove that he deserves the starting job and the majority of the carries?
The point I tried to make earlier, and it probably got lost in all the confrontational stuff about statistics, is that I believe that Barber is EXTREMELY effective in his role as the closer. He is physical, has good patience, and can wear defenses down. I don't think he provides the same attributes in the first and second quarters.
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Old 09-24-2007, 03:06 PM    (permalink
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Yes, it gets harder and harder every week to defend Julius. To be fair, he made two big plays last night that were each negated by BS referee calls. His stat line would look much, much better if you throw in that 26 yard run and 20 yard reception. Still, Barber has been truly amazing, and I never thought I would see him break a 50+ yarder, especially against as fast a D as the Bears.


On a side note, can you believe how badly that first half was officiated? Bogus call after bogus call. It was unbelievable! Between the referees and a few stupid mental breakdowns, we probably lost 10-14 points. I was livid at halftime.
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Old 09-24-2007, 03:07 PM    (permalink
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But does what JJ really make us want to resign him. That is the biggest questionmark. What type of money is he going to be asking for. If we can get a Columbo type deal with him I'd be fine...I just don't see that happening...in which case JJ becomes expendable for a new RB.
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Old 09-24-2007, 03:11 PM    (permalink
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Here are some stats that I believe show Marion's effectiveness late in the game:

2007:

Half Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st
1st Half 13 56 4.3 18 2 3

2nd Half 27 200 7.4 54 2 9

Last Two Minutes of Half 6 20 3.3 8 1 2

2006:

Half Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st
1st Half 44 165 3.8 25 4 13

2nd Half 94 493 5.2 24 10 33

Last Two Minutes of Half 17 93 5.5 25 1 4

Another interesting statistic:

Point Situation Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st
Ahead 75 404 5.4 24 7 26
Behind 40 127 3.2 22 5 14

I don't believe that those statistics need to be explained. The point is, Marion is excellent as a closer. Look at his averages in the 1st and 2nd halves; look at his averages when we are ahead and behind.
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Old 09-24-2007, 03:13 PM    (permalink
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But does what JJ really make us want to resign him. That is the biggest questionmark. What type of money is he going to be asking for. If we can get a Columbo type deal with him I'd be fine...I just don't see that happening...in which case JJ becomes expendable for a new RB.
Not yet. I think Julius needs to prove himself before he scores a contract, with any team. But a Colombo or Hamlin type deal for Julius could work out well, a situation in which JJ gambles on himself. He's still got 13 games (hopefully more) to prove his virtue.
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Old 09-24-2007, 03:26 PM    (permalink
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On a side note, can you believe how badly that first half was officiated? Bogus call after bogus call. It was unbelievable! Between the referees and a few stupid mental breakdowns, we probably lost 10-14 points. I was livid at halftime.
Yeah, I almost punched my TV when Ron Winters' face was on the screen after a few of those. It was just blatant what they were doing. It seemed as though once they realized we were going to keep overcoming their fakeness, they backed off a bit and conceded that even they could not stop us. They didn't want to get too carried away, especially in light of the whole Donaghy thing.
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Old 09-24-2007, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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Steven Jackson will not play vs. Cowboys. (groin)

Just saw it on ESPN News.
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Old 09-24-2007, 04:43 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.O.T.H. View Post
Steven Jackson will not play vs. Cowboys. (groin)

Just saw it on ESPN News.
WOW, that is huge!
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Old 09-24-2007, 04:44 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.O.T.H. View Post
Steven Jackson will not play vs. Cowboys. (groin)

Just saw it on ESPN News.
If this is true, these last couple days couldn't get better. Even though he is on my fantasy team. But still one less thing to worry about next Sunday.
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Old 09-24-2007, 04:45 PM    (permalink
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Leonard will make his first career start.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...on.ap/?cnn=yes
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Old 09-24-2007, 04:47 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by M.O.T.H. View Post
Steven Jackson will not play vs. Cowboys. (groin)

Just saw it on ESPN News.
That's actually more scary, imo. That only means Bulger will go to the air more. If we keep playing that soft zone coverage, our secondary will get toasted. Our nickel and dime packages better tighten up. I can easily see Bulger and Holt tearing up our secondary.
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Old 09-24-2007, 05:01 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by D-Unit View Post
That's actually more scary, imo. That only means Bulger will go to the air more. If we keep playing that soft zone coverage, our secondary will get toasted. Our nickel and dime packages better tighten up. I can easily see Bulger and Holt tearing up our secondary.
Here's to hoping we get Newman back full time...

And on another note, here's to hoping that Greg Ellis gets back on the field this season and doesn't have to end his career in the same manner as Darren Woodson. Godspeed Greg.
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Old 09-24-2007, 08:53 PM    (permalink
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports...,4763513.story

Did anyone else see this story in Sunday's Chicago Tribune comparing Grossman and Romo? I wonder what tune Mr. Sarcasm was singing about Romo on Monday?
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