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Old 09-27-2007, 03:43 PM    (permalink
JJJ888
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Originally Posted by robert_in_bigd View Post
This is the ol 80/20 rule TripJ

80% of it is that he is good.

20% is your stuff.

You have a point but it does not explain the extraordinary results.
How does that not explain the results? What does that even mean? If Marion is playing more in the second half and his average is much higher, of course that will skew the statistics. And one of the reasons that Barber does better in the second half is because he is fresh, and because he is a more powerful runner. And since Julius gets the ball less in the second half, then he's not going to have the benefit of running against a worn out defense. Therefore, his average won't be as high. The fact is that Marion plays better when he is playing against a defense that is not as fresh as he is.
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Old 09-27-2007, 03:57 PM    (permalink
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Wrong. That is not the BP 3-4 and to think so shows a poor understanding of the BP/Bellichick system

I know both defenses very well...thank you.
He was drafted to be an outside LB...he struggled in practice, TC, and the pre season there. He couldnt get to the QB when pass rushing. Resulting in Bobby being moved to the inside. Depth really wasnt being considered as a real weakness w/ Singelton and Fowler playing in the middle. He was moved there because, he was ineffective at OLB. The main reason he was brought in, was to improve the pass rush.


But fact is he played SOLB once Ellis went out.

Who else were we going to play? Junior Glymph? I'll give you this...Bobby played well in that game but, it's really the only game he played well in. He actually showed some confidence and decisivness but, that's not the Carp we normally see out there. I was actually high on Carp after the game...I didnt want another OLB in the draft. Thought he deserved another shot to prove his worth but, the coaches felt differently. Now, Carp is always being noted as having bad practices...he didnt have a great TC or Pre season. Outside of one game...he hasnt played well at all. He is a depth guy behind two better players. Is he important to our team in terms of depth and ST? yes but, that is not what we drafted him for.


Narrow players like Spencer (pass rush guy) would not have a chance with BP unless they could at least play zone coverage. A bonus if they could play man.

Is he a 3-4 Phillips, blitzing OLB. No, that is Spencer. He is a Patriots / Pittsburgh OLB.

So, basically your saying Carp doesnt fit. Which is true...he's not right for the system and even under BP's system he disappointed. We were all expecting to be getting a better player. Some scouts said he was better than Hawk...he's not even close.

Does not look good for Burnett either. Both playes don't fit this scheme in spite of their obvious talent.

Burnett has a better skill set and has proved he could play in this D, Carp hasnt. As Thule said, Carp still has the recognition of a rookie and not a very polished one at that. I dont no where guys have seen him play fast, other than at OSU or ST because, when he's on D...he plays much slower than he is timed and always seems late to the play. He hasnt played like a 1st rounder at all.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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Why would the Bears trade any of them?

Why would the Pats trade there 1st round S/CB?

They wouldn't. This is the NFL...trades are rare. Especially, player for player.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:14 PM    (permalink
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Why would the Bears trade any of them?

Why would the Pats trade there 1st round S/CB?

They wouldn't. This is the NFL...trades are rare. Especially, player for player.
Why are you suggesting that I said they would. I'm saying if we traded them, that's what I would look for.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:17 PM    (permalink
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Why are you suggesting that I said they would. I'm saying if we traded them, that's what I would look for.
my bad...just saying player for player is a rarity. I wouldnt necessarilly disagree w/ the players you mentioned...I just dont find that it would be all that likely. If Carp does get traded in the future...it would most likely be for a pick/picks.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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How does that not explain the results? What does that even mean? If Marion is playing more in the second half and his average is much higher, of course that will skew the statistics. And one of the reasons that Barber does better in the second half is because he is fresh, and because he is a more powerful runner. And since Julius gets the ball less in the second half, then he's not going to have the benefit of running against a worn out defense. Therefore, his average won't be as high. The fact is that Marion plays better when he is playing against a defense that is not as fresh as he is.

Cut, slice and dice -- MBIII is better than Julius.

He gets better results because he plays better. Team plays better. We score more points when he is in a series.

Saying MBIII is getting the benefit of a tired D is circular reasoning b/c many times the DI is tired b/c of him and OL.

Julius doesn't tire anyone out b/c no one fears him.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:26 PM    (permalink
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Wrong. That is not the BP 3-4 and to think so shows a poor understanding of the BP/Bellichick system

I know both defenses very well...thank you.
He was drafted to be an outside LB...he struggled in practice, TC, and the pre season there. He couldnt get to the QB when pass rushing. Resulting in Bobby being moved to the inside. Depth really wasnt being considered as a real weakness w/ Singelton and Fowler playing in the middle. He was moved there because, he was ineffective at OLB. The main reason he was brought in, was to improve the pass rush.


But fact is he played SOLB once Ellis went out.

Who else were we going to play? Junior Glymph? I'll give you this...Bobby played well in that game but, it's really the only game he played well in. He actually showed some confidence and decisivness but, that's not the Carp we normally see out there. I was actually high on Carp after the game...I didnt want another OLB in the draft. Thought he deserved another shot to prove his worth but, the coaches felt differently. Now, Carp is always being noted as having bad practices...he didnt have a great TC or Pre season. Outside of one game...he hasnt played well at all. He is a depth guy behind two better players. Is he important to our team in terms of depth and ST? yes but, that is not what we drafted him for.


Narrow players like Spencer (pass rush guy) would not have a chance with BP unless they could at least play zone coverage. A bonus if they could play man.

Is he a 3-4 Phillips, blitzing OLB. No, that is Spencer. He is a Patriots / Pittsburgh OLB.

So, basically your saying Carp doesnt fit. Which is true...he's not right for the system and even under BP's system he disappointed. We were all expecting to be getting a better player. Some scouts said he was better than Hawk...he's not even close.

Does not look good for Burnett either. Both playes don't fit this scheme in spite of their obvious talent.

Burnett has a better skill set and has proved he could play in this D, Carp hasnt. As Thule said, Carp still has the recognition of a rookie and not a very polished one at that. I dont no where guys have seen him play fast, other than at OSU or ST because, when he's on D...he plays much slower than he is timed and always seems late to the play. He hasnt played like a 1st rounder at all.
How did he disappoint under the BP system? I just don't get it. Where did this become truth?

Ellis played above and beyond expectations and so he outplayed a rookie. BFD!!!!!

Once Ellis went down Carpenter played better GAME IN GAME OUT -- to the point he was great in Seattle.

His reward, the bench.

Again, I don't understand how you take a young player, invest in him, start getting results (to the point HE WAS OUR BEST DEFENDER IN SEATTLE AFTER ONLY A FEW STARTS) and then pull the plug.

Stupid Player Personnel moves and even worse to say he is disappointing.

You don't bench a high ceiling young guy once he starts to perform. You try to give him more time to develop and reach his ceiling.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:32 PM    (permalink
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Wrong. That is not the BP 3-4 and to think so shows a poor understanding of the BP/Bellichick system

I know both defenses very well...thank you.
He was drafted to be an outside LB...he struggled in practice, TC, and the pre season there. He couldnt get to the QB when pass rushing. Resulting in Bobby being moved to the inside. Depth really wasnt being considered as a real weakness w/ Singelton and Fowler playing in the middle. He was moved there because, he was ineffective at OLB. The main reason he was brought in, was to improve the pass rush.

The main reason he was brought in has changed with the new coaching staff. Why can't you see that? He's not a perfect fit and is adjusting to the scheme. You act like he's a lost cause.


But fact is he played SOLB once Ellis went out.

Who else were we going to play? Junior Glymph? I'll give you this...Bobby played well in that game but, it's really the only game he played well in. He actually showed some confidence and decisivness but, that's not the Carp we normally see out there. I was actually high on Carp after the game...I didnt want another OLB in the draft. Thought he deserved another shot to prove his worth but, the coaches felt differently. Now, Carp is always being noted as having bad practices...he didnt have a great TC or Pre season. Outside of one game...he hasnt played well at all. He is a depth guy behind two better players. Is he important to our team in terms of depth and ST? yes but, that is not what we drafted him for.

Your opinion of Carp changes with the weather. Fact.

Narrow players like Spencer (pass rush guy) would not have a chance with BP unless they could at least play zone coverage. A bonus if they could play man.

Is he a 3-4 Phillips, blitzing OLB. No, that is Spencer. He is a Patriots / Pittsburgh OLB.

So, basically your saying Carp doesnt fit. Which is true...he's not right for the system and even under BP's system he disappointed. We were all expecting to be getting a better player. Some scouts said he was better than Hawk...he's not even close.

He didn't disappoint in BP's system? Did you expect him to start over a team leader and veteran like Ellis after Ellis' transition was so smooth? Did he disappoint in the only game he started? No. Hawk has been a starter, stop comparing.


Does not look good for Burnett either. Both playes don't fit this scheme in spite of their obvious talent.

Burnett has a better skill set and has proved he could play in this D, Carp hasnt. As Thule said, Carp still has the recognition of a rookie and not a very polished one at that. I dont no where guys have seen him play fast, other than at OSU or ST because, when he's on D...he plays much slower than he is timed and always seems late to the play. He hasnt played like a 1st rounder at all.

I like both Burnett and Carp. They both have skills that can work in this defense. I don't see how Burnett has proved more than Carp. Also, how exactly can anyone outside of the coach and player himself know exactly what kind of recognition the player has. The fact that you guys attribute him to having rookie recognition skills is very VERY funny.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:39 PM    (permalink
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He was a disappointment...like i said, he was brought in to help the pass-rush...he couldnt. BP didnt even know what to do w/ him. He didnt even see any real action until what? week 9? Remember everyone on here week after week? Where's Carp, where's Carp? He was our best defender for one game...he wasnt playing like that, leading up to that game. For all we know...it could have been a fluke. I really dont want to think that but, it's possible.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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Cut, slice and dice -- MBIII is better than Julius.

He gets better results because he plays better. Team plays better. We score more points when he is in a series.

Saying MBIII is getting the benefit of a tired D is circular reasoning b/c many times the DI is tired b/c of him and OL.

Julius doesn't tire anyone out b/c no one fears him.
I really can't believe your logic. Here are the stats again (I'll only post the relevant ones so you can see more clearly what I'm trying to point out).

Julius Jones 2006:

Half Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st
1st Half 162 649 4.0 77 2 23
2nd Half 127 547 4.3 35 2 25

Marion Barber 2006:

Half Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st
1st Half 44 165 3.8 25 4 13
2nd Half 94 493 5.2 24 10 33

Therefore, Barber gained 75% of his yards in the second half of games. Furthermore, his average was higher. This indicates to me, that he is better in the second half of games. Want to see more?

He's been even better in the second half this year. His average? 7.4 ypc. Granted, that number is also skewed by two long runs (accounting for 94 of his 200 second half yards), but since the Cowboys have been up late in games, naturally teams will stack the line trying to stop the run. This makes breaking big runs much easier.

Finally, Barber's running style is much more difficult for defenses when they are fatigued. He's a more powerful runner, and harder to bring down.

Let's take a look at another set of backs from last season: Jerious Norwood and Warrick Dunn of the Atlanta Falcons.

Dunn 2006:
286 att. 1140 yds. 4.0 ypc 4 TD

Norwood 2006:
99 att. 633 yds. 6.4 ypc. 2 TD

Very similar stats to the Cowboys two backs, right? And seemingly Norwood has the more impressive stats. Take a look now at the stats by half:

Jerious Norwood 2006:
Half Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st
1st Half 37 165 4.5 16 0 8
2nd Half 59 450 7.6 78 2 18

Warrick Dunn 2006:
Half Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st
1st Half 168 688 4.1 30 1 30
2nd Half 113 433 3.8 90 3 17

Yet another example of how the back that gets the time in the second half seemingly outperforms the first-half back.

Now Norwood isn't the most physical of backs, but he certainly is bigger than Dunn, and definitely more effective in the second half than in the first.

I could list a couple more tandems who have worked this same way. I hope I don't need to. I suppose the point I'm trying to make is that if Jones got more carries in the second half against a worn down defense, his average would be higher...but he would not be as effective as Barber. Similarly, Barber's stats indicate that he would not be as effective in the first half as in the second. That's what makes Marion such a great closer.

The point is not who is tiring out the defense. The point is that Marion is running more often against a worn out defense and that makes him seem much better both on the stat sheet and on the TV. It's the same scenario throughout the NFL.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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He was a disappointment...like i said, he was brought in to help the pass-rush...he couldnt. BP didnt even know what to do w/ him. He didnt even see any real action until what? week 9? Remember everyone on here week after week? Where's Carp, where's Carp? He was our best defender for one game...he wasnt playing like that, leading up to that game. For all we know...it could have been a fluke. I really dont want to think that but, it's possible.
He was not a disappointment in the sense that he was a wasted talent. It was a disappointment that he didn't get more playing time, but everyone understood why. No one complained because Greg Ellis was performing at a high level.

There were no cries about where's Carp? Everyone knew where he was and why. Maybe it was just me?
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:53 PM    (permalink
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In response to D. (post before that one^...haha)

Obviously i can see that...he was a disappointment in the defense he played in. Honestly, he may be a bit of a lost cost...seriously, where does he fit?You said you could see him starting and our ILB are just adequate. Both Bradie and Akin have been solid and don't look to be moving down on the depth chart in favor of a less superior player anytime soon.

How has my opinion changed on him? I've said numerous times that i didnt want an OLB in the draft. Carp wasnt great but, we spent a 1st rounder for him to play that position...I wanted to see him given a shot. Since his move he has still continued to play bad.

All you have to do...is watch him play defense. He doesnt know what's
going on most of the time and he's a step slower.

As for Kevin...he did have a very nice preseason. He is a player...he could play well in any scheme you put him in.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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He was not a disappointment in the sense that he was a wasted talent. It was a disappointment that he didn't get more playing time, but everyone understood why. No one complained because Greg Ellis was performing at a high level.

There were no cries about where's Carp? Everyone knew where he was and why. Maybe it was just me?
That's not how I recall it.
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Old 09-27-2007, 05:00 PM    (permalink
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That's not how I recall it.
Do you not remember Greg Ellis' success at OLB?
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Old 09-27-2007, 05:05 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by D-Unit View Post
Do you not remember Greg Ellis' success at OLB?
Of course...that is not the reason Bobby was sitting. Bobby has turned out to be much more of a project than anyone had thought. He was supposed to be "polished". He wasnt even active every week in the beginning.
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Old 09-27-2007, 05:12 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by M.O.T.H. View Post
In response to D. (post before that one^...haha)

Obviously i can see that...he was a disappointment in the defense he played in. Honestly, he may be a bit of a lost cost...seriously, where does he fit?You said you could see him starting and our ILB are just adequate. Both Bradie and Akin have been solid and don't look to be moving down on the depth chart in favor of a less superior player anytime soon.
He fits where WP has him. Backing up Spencer and James. He's one injury away from starting. *insert broken record*

How has my opinion changed on him? I've said numerous times that i didnt want an OLB in the draft. Carp wasnt great but, we spent a 1st rounder for him to play that position...I wanted to see him given a shot. Since his move he has still continued to play bad.
Your opinion on him changes with the breeze. You loved him after Seattle and you hate him now. So what if we spent a 1st rounder on him. He fit the need at the time. No one knew that a seasoned vet who was a career 4-3 DE would accept and make a smooth transition to a 3-4 OLB. Plus it was BP's last position in the front 7 that he didn't hand pick himself. Mission complete. Times have changed, there is a new regime in town. New system. He provides quality depth. All these things are undeniable, yet you want to call him a bust? He hasn't had the chance to prove anything. This is getting old. You obviously don't have the capacity to get what I'm saying.


All you have to do...is watch him play defense. He doesnt know what's
going on most of the time and he's a step slower.
Oh please. 3 weeks into the season, serving as a backup and you've already outlined his entire career. Geemanee cricket.

As for Kevin...he did have a very nice preseason. He is a player...he could play well in any scheme you put him in.
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Old 09-27-2007, 05:16 PM    (permalink
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Of course...that is not the reason Bobby was sitting. Bobby has turned out to be much more of a project than anyone had thought. He was supposed to be "polished". He wasnt even active every week in the beginning.
Not the reason??? So you did expect Carp to just unseat Ellis right off the bat? OK, now I know what frame of mind you're coming from. "the unrealistic one".

In his first game starting in the playoffs, he goes off... how is that NOT NFL ready? He hasn't had the playing time to prove anything. I keep saying this... Give him the time Spears has had and then evaluate. He's perfectly fine providing quality depth at LB where in the 3-4 LB is imperative.
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Old 09-27-2007, 05:25 PM    (permalink
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Talking about broken records...you dont draft a LBer in the first for depth. Ellis is almost back...that means Carp is only backing up Bradie as in ILB. Yes, the pick was made last year but, it doesnt look like he has a future here...you keep bringing up injuries...they may never happen, you're gonna have this high priced former 1st round back up on the bench for 5 years. If the injuries don't occur, he has no future on this team.

I had high hopes for him after that game, yes. Did i say i loved him? no. He played good in one game...perhaps a glimpse of the player to be. But, since that game he hasnt shown us anything remotely close to that level of play again. Like i said, it could have been a fluke.

If anything is getting old, it is the little insults, you insert here and there. Completely unnecessary. I have my views and you have yours...no need for that.
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Old 09-27-2007, 05:25 PM    (permalink
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How does that not explain the results? What does that even mean? If Marion is playing more in the second half and his average is much higher, of course that will skew the statistics. And one of the reasons that Barber does better in the second half is because he is fresh, and because he is a more powerful runner. And since Julius gets the ball less in the second half, then he's not going to have the benefit of running against a worn out defense. Therefore, his average won't be as high. The fact is that Marion plays better when he is playing against a defense that is not as fresh as he is.

honestly this argument is getting really old...have you been watching any games this year? JJ gets ALOT of plays and rushing in the 2nd half, and Barber plays in the first...so just as much as Barber wears down the D for JJ, he does nothing with it...ive seen Barber start 2nd halfs and get lots of rushes, tear through the defense on long drives, and the next series in the 2nd half we put JJ in and he does nothing...vs the same tired defense, in the 2nd half or 4th qt...we gets redzone carries and carries vs a tired defense...


im tired of hearing that offense, its weak...JJ has had many chances, and with all the carries that Barber gets now dotn you think JJ has fresh legs too? what do you think is happening to him while he is sitting on the sideline? he is fresh while the D is tired, its not like he doesnt play at all in the 2nd half, but he doesnt make plays anymore...gone are the days where he runs for 180 in back 2 back weeks, only plays he gets that are long runs are wide open gaping holes..when is the last time you saw him make a player miss or break a tackle the way barber threw urlacher to the ground this past week?


its not even close anymore, Barber is a better back then JJ, all around however you want to break it down...straight line speed is the only thing you can argue and somehow Barber is still getting longer runs in games then JJ, while both are getting the same opportunities, its not unfair, or skewed stats...it is what it is, you cant keep defending JJ as to be better then Barber like Barber is getting an advantage when in actuality Wade is giving him more then his fair share of chances to make plays and he has yet to do so
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 09-27-2007, 05:37 PM    (permalink
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Not the reason??? So you did expect Carp to just unseat Ellis right off the bat? OK, now I know what frame of mind you're coming from. "the unrealistic one".

In his first game starting in the playoffs, he goes off... how is that NOT NFL ready? He hasn't had the playing time to prove anything. I keep saying this... Give him the time Spears has had and then evaluate. He's perfectly fine providing quality depth at LB where in the 3-4 LB is imperative.
He wasnt even Ellis' backup. He was playing inside and a little DE on nickel. He was also inactive for 3 or more games...i dont remember the exact number. He wasnt being given PT because, he didnt deserve it...he was terribly inconsistant in practices and BP didnt have enough faith in him to see the field.
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Old 09-27-2007, 05:39 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by M.O.T.H. View Post
Talking about broken records...you dont draft a LBer in the first for depth. Ellis is almost back...that means Carp is only backing up Bradie as in ILB. Yes, the pick was made last year but, it doesnt look like he has a future here...you keep bringing up injuries...they may never happen, you're gonna have this high priced former 1st round back up on the bench for 5 years. If the injuries don't occur, he has no future on this team.

I had high hopes for him after that game, yes. Did i say i loved him? no. He played good in one game...perhaps a glimpse of the player to be. But, since that game he hasnt shown us anything remotely close to that level of play again. Like i said, it could have been a fluke.

If anything is getting old, it is the little insults, you insert here and there. Completely unnecessary. I have my views and you have yours...no need for that.
OMG MOTH. I never said we are supposed to draft a LB in Rnd 1 for depth. That's how it's turned out after all of the things that has happened. You can't turn back time. You can't call him a bust for it either. He was a good pick all things considered at the time.

If you think that LB depth isn't important over the course of a season in the 3-4, then I don't know what to say. You're too concerned over the starting line up on paper. Things are all fine when everyone is healthy, but as soon as a starter like Newman goes down, CB is a round 1 priority. Go figure.

Could be a fluke? Could not. You have no base line to make that judgment yet. Have I not been saying that?
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Old 09-27-2007, 05:40 PM    (permalink
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He wasnt even Ellis' backup. He was playing inside and a little DE on nickel. He was also inactive for 3 or more games...i dont remember the exact number. He wasnt being given PT because, he didnt deserve it...he was terribly inconsistant in practices and BP didnt have enough faith in him to see the field.
He was always the backup to Ellis. That's why he took over when Ellis went down.

BP made him learn the inside to try to get him more chances at playing time while Ellis was the starter.
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Old 09-27-2007, 06:08 PM    (permalink
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He was always the backup to Ellis. That's why he took over when Ellis went down.

BP made him learn the inside to try to get him more chances at playing time while Ellis was the starter.
Al Singelton was Ellis' primary backup...Al started when Ellis went down...until, Al got banged up and Carp had to play the final two games.

I'm done w/ this...i know how you feel and you know I feel. This is getting old...time for us to move on to something different.
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Old 09-27-2007, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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Trip JJJ, if MBIII was getting the benefit of Julius's Jones then why does MBIII YPC increase by 37% and Julius only increase by 7.5%? Maybe b/c MBIII runs better?

Would it not stand to reason that if JJ is softening them up and MBIII is laying the hammer on soft wood that JJ would get more than 4.3YPC?? MBIII goes up 37%!

This is a silly argument. Only the willfully blind homer would argue JJ is even in MBIIIs league. I am not even sure I understand their is a point to this argument. Yes. Julius has lower numbers b/c he gets the first series of a game.

But please -- we are talking 16TDs to 3TDs. 5 YPC carry versus 4.

Pull all the stats you want the fact is the Coaches put MBIII in and magic happens. Julius causes this O to sputter. Just look at the drives this season where we score points.
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Old 09-27-2007, 06:52 PM    (permalink
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Al Singelton was Ellis' primary backup...Al started when Ellis went down...until, Al got banged up and Carp had to play the final two games.

I'm done w/ this...i know how you feel and you know I feel. This is getting old...time for us to move on to something different.

Al sat more and more as Carp played. Injury or not the trend was for Carp to start.
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