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Old 02-18-2014, 04:33 AM    (permalink
AntoinCD
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I agree with your general point, however there has to be some limit on what we will pay Talib. I picked $8m because it is good value for both player and team. Remember, as has been pointed out there are a lot of FA CBs this year who will make teams better. Yes, every team could use more CBs but I don't see a case where it won't be a buyer's market. Talib's value to the Patriots is higher than anywhere else which is why I would go as high as $8m, but I can see a situation where if he wants much more some teams will think, why offer him $9m when we can get one of the other guys for $7m?

The thing that could hurt is teams with loads of cap room blowing us out, and this is why we need a limit. We can't get into a bidding war with a team like Cleveland who have much more space. Set a limit, and try to get the deal done in the period where only we can talk to him

But as a general thought, for me Talib is a must sign. Obviously that can't happen if he holds us over a barrel or he gets a ridiculous offer but right now if we don't resign Talib the offseason is all but sunk IMO. Adding any other CB available at this time does not give you the same effect.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:00 AM    (permalink
cmarq83
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5 years $50 million is probably what it'll take, and probably where I personally would max out.

If we structured it like Rams did with Finnegan with guaranteed base salaries the first 2 seasons and a reasonable signing bonus, I think we could have a situation where we could cut him year 3, and not have it kill us.

We'd have to release/restructure Wilfork, which we should do anyways.

I'd give a $10 million signing bonus, and guarantee a $7 and $11 million base the first 2 years. 2015 is our most flexible cap season, and despite some good free agents (McCourty, Solder 5th year option, Vereen, Ridley) we'll have enough money to fit in all of them if we want to, and Talib. Plus 2016 we'd have some big contracts that we could end with good savings (Amendola, Arrington, Talib, Vollmer) to accomodate the rising cap number of the previous 4 we resigned in 2015.

There really is no reason to place a limit on Talib. He's an important member of this team, and going forward we can work with him being paid like it too. We just have to pay what the free agent market will pay.

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Old 02-18-2014, 07:21 AM    (permalink
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I think Wilfork is the major thing we need to do first and the Suggs deal places a benchmark of what can be done.

I think the organization and Wilfork would like him to retire a Pat, so why not do something along those lines?

I personally don't think we need to go mad in FA to be in contention next year but we need some flexibility.

Defensively I am pretty happy with this lineup;

Jones - Wilfork - Rotation - Nink

Collins - Hightower - Mayo

Talib - Harmon - McCourty - Dennard

Obviously having guys like Ryan, Arrington etc rotating in as well but adding some depth at DE and DT would be nice. All in all though if we can stay healthy next year I see an average to above average defense.

On offense we will be good again regardless of who is out there, but we can't afford to be just "good".

I am all on the bandwagon of not resigning Wendell and cutting Connolly but that means we need some more bodies, with ideally a starter to play OC. Maybe someone like Swanson in the 2nd or 3rd

But it is at the skill positions we need someone to make a difference. I really don't think they go WR unless someone falls to them because they will want a veteran presence there. But in FA I don't see the type of guy we need.

TE is the place I think they look. Ebron will be gone but would be perfect. I'm not his biggest fan because he plays quite soft but he stretches the seams as well as any TE in the draft for the last few years. Amaro is very similar to Hernandez in that he may not have great long speed but is very good laterally and is a zone beater. ASJ could be unreal with his head screwed on but he is too big and lacking explosion, also comes with character concerns. Troy Niklas is a guy I could see Belichick loving. He is a nasty blocker and pretty good as a pass catcher. It would lead to more physical football as well which I don't think is a bad thing. Having him, Gronk and the O-line would absolutely force teams to play heavy on defense. Then, if you get one guy on the outside to win single coverage it would really help.

But if we are being realistic this is what is going to happen.

Belichick will sign Emmanuel Sanders in FA and continue to play small ball on offense.

They will trade out of the first round and pick up a DB in the middle of the second.

They will take an offensive lineman with their own second round pick.

In the 3rd they will take a guy like Jordan Matthews at WR and hope he bucks the trend of recent WR busts.

What I don't want to happen is McD to bang the table for Decker and for the Pats to overpay for him. However, for all the flack he gets for his time in Denver he did draft both Thomas and Decker in the same class. I would love Belichick to let McD scout the WRs and say "pick one and we will get him". I think the 2 guys who would be great fits are Marqise Lee and Davante Adams. Lee may be gone in the first but if available he would be really tempting. Adams bailed out Carr so much this year, not the other way round. He can separate as well but his best attribute is his ability to not show his hands until the last second. That makes it extremely tough on DBs to play the ball. I would take him anywhere from the middle of the second
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:26 AM    (permalink
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Ideally I'd like to see them explore a trade for Blackmon. He represents everything they need. He can attack all levels of the field, brings strong hands and natural receiving instincts to the table, and is a quality redzone threat. He also comes with 2 years of cost control, and a decent 5th year option if he produces.

There is a huge character risk, he wouldn't be available immediately, and it would probably cost us a top 3 round draft choice, but if we're looking for a difference maker at receiver that we can afford Blackmon fits the bill. On the field he's a much better player than Decker or Sanders.
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:35 AM    (permalink
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Ideally I'd like to see them explore a trade for Blackmon. He represents everything they need. He can attack all levels of the field, brings strong hands and natural receiving instincts to the table, and is a quality redzone threat. He also comes with 2 years of cost control, and a decent 5th year option if he produces.

There is a huge character risk, he wouldn't be available immediately, and it would probably cost us a top 3 round draft choice, but if we're looking for a difference maker at receiver that we can afford Blackmon fits the bill. On the field he's a much better player than Decker or Sanders.
On the field Blackmon is a great fit and his talent is that of a potential #1 WR. I would love it but even a 3rd round draft pick is a bit rich for me. Unlike guys like Moss, Talib and LGB he has received multiple suspensions for conduct and is walking a real tightrope.

I also don't know how much value the Jags would see in trading him. Unless they want him out of the locker room I think it benefits them more to ride with him than get a mid round pick.

I don't know, maybe I am valuing draft picks too highly, but a 3rd for a guy who could realistically never play a down is tough to swallow. Major risk/reward guy but I think he would be one step too far for Belichick.

Interesting guy though, I hadn't even thought of him as a possibility. I would think that a passing attack that would include Balckmon, Dobson, Amendola, Gronk and the RBs would be nice
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:54 AM    (permalink
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I guess the whole possibility he doesn't play another down doesn't phase me. We've had this essentially happen in the draft the last 5 years more times than I can count.

Bequette
Price
Crable
O'Connell
Mallett
Brace
Wheatley
Wilson
ect.

I don't fear another bust value from a 2nd or 3rd round pick. As long as we continue to find quality backfill from free agents and 5th-UDFA I don't really see the problem with a risk like Blackmon. What I really am afraid of is more desperate deep shots to the Julian Edelmans and Matthew Slaters of the World in the playoffs.

I'd honestly go as high as a second for him. Jacksonville needs players everywhere, and Blackmon wasn't a selection by the current regime. I think he can be had for the right price.

It's time for the team to figure out what it's competitive advantage is during the playoffs. We seem to end up doing multiple things well, but excelling at nothing, and once we face a really good team nothing seems to work.

Lets keep our advantage in the secondary, and build an elite passing offense on the backs of Brady, Gronk, and hopefully a receiver like Blackmon. That's our route to a championship. We've proven that we can win our division and 12ish games under almost any circumstance. Let's make the moves that will take us to the next level.

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Old 02-18-2014, 10:06 AM    (permalink
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That is a disgusting list of epic failures!!!

I don't know what way I want this team to build, all I know is I want them to do it completely. The half ass measures aren't helping.

As you mentioned, teams need to have an identity to win in the playoffs. It doesn't work to say we can do a little bit of everything. We need to be able to line up and say "we are going to run all day and run well", or "we are going to go 4 wide and stretch your defense all day".

This team doesn't have anything it can hang its hat on. It looked liked they had peaked in the run game coming into the AFCCG, but then they had a combined 15 rushes against Denver. Either become a commited running team or a commited passing team. I am all for balance, but when you are balanced teams will take one option away and ask you to beat them with the other. If you are good, not great at both then when one staple is taken away you don't be good at either. If you are a great rushing team it is harder to take that completely away, likewise a great passing team.

I would personally prefer a great passing attack because I think we can, at the very least, be solid in the run game and occassionally have big games, whereas the passing game will suffer more unless some real resources are put into it. As it stands, when the run game is good we can't make teams pay in the passing game like a few years ago. Some of that is injuries but a lot is poor talent acquisition and evaluation
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Old 02-18-2014, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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Don't ever mention Crable to me again.

Also Tyrone Mckenzie. I had high hopes.
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Old 02-18-2014, 10:11 AM    (permalink
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Chad Jackson and Taylor Price for me are the bad ones. I'm still waiting for Taylor Price to break out. This is his year!!!!
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Old 02-18-2014, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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Chad Jackson and Taylor Price for me are the bad ones. I'm still waiting for Taylor Price to break out. This is his year!!!!
Get out of my face.
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Old 02-18-2014, 11:22 AM    (permalink
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Blackmon would be a very interesting gamble. I can't imagine the Jags would want to be rid of such a premier talent, but it's a new regime starting all the way at the top with the owner. He's no likely to miss any time in 2015, though. His "indefinite" suspension just happened to be with 8 games remaining, which is the standard second violation penalty for SA in the NFL.
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Old 02-26-2014, 11:19 PM    (permalink
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Here's something I never thought of, Jared Allen.

via MMQB top 100 free agents

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He’s not the dominating player he once was, but Allen still put up double-digit sacks (11.5) for the seventh straight year. Would be nice to cap off career with title. Best fit: Patriots. Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich could use a breather and some help.
If he could be signed for a discount I'd be in favor of it. Seems like the type of guy that would fit in perfectly in NE.
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Old 02-27-2014, 09:36 PM    (permalink
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The Patriots 2 best defensive players the last 6 weeks of the season.







We definitely have something in Collins, and I wouldn't be quick to turn my back on Siliga either.

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Old 02-28-2014, 04:10 AM    (permalink
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In today's NFL I think Collins could become a superstar. I do think he has a long ways to go in terms of consistency but how he played in the playoffs was absolutely huge. And think of it this way, when was the last time we can say a Patriots player played his best when it mattered most?

Siliga I am very happy with. It makes the need for DT a little less given that some bodies should be coming back this year. Having a front 2 of Jones and Vellano hurt us with no depth behind them. Now, I think both those guys can, and will contribute this year but they aren't front line players.

As for the Jared Allen possibility put me down in the not a fan section. Allen doesn't have a history of moving from his right end spot and will probably cost more than we would all like. What we need at DE is either a bona fide starter to take over from Nink or a guy who can play 600 snaps a year in rotation. I don't think Allen at this point is capable of being a full time starter for cheap enough, nor willing to become a bit part player. If we could get any Vikings DE I would lump on Everson Griffen personally
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Old 02-28-2014, 08:54 AM    (permalink
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I am so happy that we have Jamie Collins. We never get players like him.
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Old 02-28-2014, 02:31 PM    (permalink
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Am I a bit crazy if I say id prefer to retain Tommy Kelly over Wilfork? I feel like Wilfork's lack of production in the passing game has been a bit of a cinder block weighing down our defense for the past couple of years. Our non-Wilfork DT's got 14.5 sacks in 1800 snaps this year. That is almost Wilfork's career total. Wilfork is an animal in the run game, but if we're talking about value added I'd take take a balanced player like Kelly to compliment a Siliga type on early downs at $2.5 million, and then have Siliga come off for a pure pass rusher like Armstead or Jones on 3rd down. I see Kelly as more of a 3 down player right now than Wilfork. I think we can find another big ugly to fill in as a depth run stuffer to back up Siliga.
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Old 02-28-2014, 06:13 PM    (permalink
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I would rather have Kelly because he is massively cheaper and has a significantly less devastating injury.
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Old 02-28-2014, 10:35 PM    (permalink
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Trying to figure out how to determine the cap savings of other players on this roster. I see that Sopoaga's base salary is 3.5 mil with 1.0 mil dead. As an example if he was to be cut would the Pats be saving his base salary of 3.5 mil? Wanted to make sure I understood this fully before I started to figure out possible cap casualties for this and other teams. Another example would be Wilfork, base of 7.5/ cap hit of 11.6/ and dead of 3.6. If he was to be flat out cut would it be a savings of nothing but the base salary of 7.5 mil? Dead money has to be paid and is guaranteed?

So Gregory has just been cut and according to Mike Reiss the Pats are at 12.35 mil. If Sopoga(3.5) and Wilson(1.5) were both cut, and I'm correct in my assumption about cap hits, we would save about 5 mil. Leaving about 17mil under the cap and that's not even addressing Vince's contract. Anyone else agree or could see both Sopoaga being cut as well as Wilson.

It seems old hat at this point because it has been beaten like a dead horse but i truly believe this team is one or two players away from being a defense that can win a Super Bowl, as long as health isn't an issue.

Does this team address SS or do we role with Harmon/Wilson starting opposite McCourty? Would Bethea be an option? Or simply draft depth?

I would like to see Edelman back with the team as long as it works for both parties. I think the system and Tom make these WR what they are but I value his PR capabilties and his being in this system already. Would 4/16-18mil make sense?

Of Soliai, A. Jones or Joseph do any fit the Pats scheme and who would make the most sense of the three if any?I feel like this team needs a DT that can get after the passer. The front 4 wins you games in Jan/Feb.

Love some Collins and Siliga.
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Old 03-01-2014, 02:33 PM    (permalink
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I think Wilson will be cut, but I'd keep him.

Soap is a no-brainer to be cut, and I so is Connolly.

They'll probably rework Wilfork's deal, and if they get cap relief for Hernandez's contract (haven't even heard if they're requesting it), they'll have a good chunk of cap space to get everything they need done.
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Old 03-03-2014, 03:24 PM    (permalink
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Jarius Byrd isn't expected to return to the Bills and isn't likely to be franchised. Cost would be a concern, but he'd be a nice addition.
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Old 03-03-2014, 03:34 PM    (permalink
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I can't see it happening, too much dough. He is a beast and I would love him on the team though.
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Old 03-03-2014, 03:46 PM    (permalink
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With Byrd it's a question of value added. I don't see him adding enough value, or adding a tangible enough dimension above McCourty to make it worth it, considering the 2 are comparable players. If we're going to go big on a defensive player, I see Melton or Starks adding the most to the unit. I've always had an affinity for Jason Worlids too, but id be very wary of giving him a big contract. His getoff from his stance is so good, I feel like he'd be a good change of pace rusher from Jones and Ninkovich. Plus he's scheme diverse. I just worry that he's going to get a Kruger like overpayment.
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Old 03-04-2014, 11:07 AM    (permalink
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Orakpo tagged.

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Old 03-04-2014, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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Uche Nwaneri was released by the Jaguars today. While he won't set the world on fire, he's a pretty good pass blocker who is most comfortable at RG. Might be a nice addition in replacement of Connolly.
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Old 03-07-2014, 08:51 PM    (permalink
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One guy I really like this year is Anthony Spencer, who should be available for cheap after the knee surgery. He's very similar to fellow Purdue alum Rob Ninkovich in terms of being able to play different positions; he fits well as a 4-3 defensive end, 4-3 strongside linebacker, or 3-4 outside linebacker. In 2012, he was PFF's top 3-4 outside linebacker, the best run defender at the position and someone who also recorded eleven sacks, two hits, and twenty-seven hurries.

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich played more snaps than any other 4-3 defensive ends last year, so bringing in a third end would make sense; instead of those two playing another 2250 snaps or so, each of the three could play around 700, which is more in line with guys like CHarles Johnson, Cameron Wake, and DeMarcus Ware. That way, if either end or Jamie Collins got hurt, there'd be someone to plug in. I think Spencer could be had on a one-year deal worth $3-4 million.
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